Carl Martin

People Still Need to Eat: Fertilizer Stocks Oversold

The paragraph about Canaccord Adams is bizarre at best, and simply totally inaccurate, or perhaps dishonest at the worst. First of all, I assume the author meant bearish, not bullish as written, in regards to which "camp they have now joined." Was that just a typo, or was that a "Freudian Slip," when what one hand prints the truth, while the other hand prints what is false, and the author's mind can't see it and correct it, before readers see the lie. We will never know, as the true author is hiding behind the FP Trading Desk. For those who don't already know, Keith Carpenter was the most bullish professional analyst on Potash Corp. If he has in fact changed his evaluation, then that is very significant indeed. However, his previous evaluations were supposed to be based upon earnings estimates, not stock market activity. The article implys that Keith Carpenter is now basing his earnings target on much lower earnings. In reality, it seems like "he" is doing just the opposite. He "apparently" is no longer basing his stock price target on earnings. Instead, he is "apparently" basing his stock price target on the very real ongoing fear and deterioration in the stock markets. I wonder what measurement tool "he" is using? Or is he just being used by the author for questionable purposes? Why isn't he holding on to his previous earnings and stock price estimates, and just saying that the on going market activities will likely take the share price all over the place, but mostly downward at least short term? In other words, it will take some time to get back to fundamentals. Why would a professional suddenly become such an amateur? I wonder what Keith Carpenter would think about this article? I also wonder what you think? And how about the editors at SA???

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

Excuse me, the name is Michael Shedlock, sorry

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

I think the article should have been titled "The Five Reasons That Are Most Certainly Not The Five Reasons, Why Fertilizer Stocks Are InThe Dirt." To start with I believe that there are far more than" just five reasons" to explain what's going on with AG stocks, and none of these other well worn reasons were even mentioned. Apparently the author is not aware of anything like the credit crises, a world wide crises of confidence, hedge fund activities, fear, and most appropriate ignorance, to name a just a few in no particular order. Ignorance, by the way does not mean dumb or stupid. It means a lack of correct knowledge or information, or more simply, just not knowing. In that light, try reading this article all over again. If you still have doubts, try reading the articles written by Michael Smedmark at this web site.

Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011

Think-About-It, Get Real! The only person on this planet, who can waste your own time is you! So stop holding other people responsible for your own foolishness, and start taking some responsibility for yourself. No one wants to hear about how unhappy you are wasting your time at seeking alpha. Only a very desperate loser would make a fool of themselves in public, in order to get some much needed attention. This website was created for serious investors to exchange their opinions and analysis about publicly traded companies, and you are very welcome to join the rest of us in this mutual pastime.

Canaccord Adams Bullish on Fertilizer Companies

I'm glad at least someone agrees with me!

Why I'm Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure

Dear Wayne, Have you checked out POT's share buy back program? Guess who's buying the shares of the people who are selling.

Why I'm Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure

History suggests that all the stocks just sold could give far better returns by simply holding and forgetting about, as these are all long term plays, and considered to be the no brainers of the decade. Anyone who bought these stocks on aug.5th,2007, and just held them is up hundreds of percent, by now. The author indicates that it's charts, not long term fundamentals, that drive long term plays. I suppose that the author must believe that anyone can just flip a coin and out guess,and thereby outperform, the market. History suggests exactly the opposite. Is he trying to rewrite history?

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

guliamo, I'm tempted to "buy" Potash corp for all the same reasons, but to be honest I don't think your reasons justify either buying or selling any stock. Could you explain better, why you think no company of this nature can justify a 190% gain in a year? POT has also had very large gains on many other years, along with many other fertilizer stocks

On Jun 26 04:41 AM guliamo wrote:

> I don't want to spoil everyones party and I used to own potash myself
> until a few weeks ago. I would like to share my rational for selling.
>
> potash isn't a new and emerging company.
> Potash isn't a software company.
> Potash isn't a biotech..
> Potash is a $74 billion company that mixes fertilizers and industrial
> acids, puts them in sacks and sells to farmers around the world.
>
> It's a great business, it's a great company with excellent financials
> and what appears to be excellent management.
> But hold your horses everyone .. no company of this nature can justify
> a 190% gain in a year. This isn't a small cap hidden gem..
> So fertilizer prices my be sky high, but at a P/E of 52.. Potash
> could take a serious dive, Be advised..

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

There is certainly room for confusion and/or disagreement here. I call it KCL because Potashcorp does, as their deposits consist of Muriate of Potash. There are good explanations at their website, as well as at wikepedia.com. Be sure to scroll all the way to the bottom. They explain why K2o is NEVER used in fertilizers, but then contradict themselves in the introduction, just to confuse you, me, and everyone else. I suppose one should never say never!


On Jun 25 09:39 AM AlTrades wrote:

> Potash is not KCl, it is K2O

The Agriculture Bull Keeps Getting Stronger

This ongoing blog series amazes me.For those of you so against investing in fertilizers, I think that you should at least know what it is you are so against. I don't know of any fertilizers produced from oil,although obviously high oil prices have a negative effect on the whole industry.Nitrogen,"N", an element, which makes up about 80% of that stuff you breathe now what's that called? gets processed from natural gas. Potash is called potassium chloride "KCL"- that's a compound. The "K" stands for Kalium. That's German for Potassium,also an element.The word Kalium comes from the word Alkali which comes from Arabic "Al Kali" which means "The Plant." It refers to what's left over after you burn plants and trees.That grey stuff that's left after YOU SMOKE YOUR POT is mostly Potassium.The Dutch call it "Potasche" - the stuff left in the pot under your woodstove.If you piss on the ground, stinging nettles will soon grow there,because they thrive on Potash. In this case, it comes from the plants you eat, which need Potash to grow. Do you get it? Potash is a naturally occurring mineral. Phosphates are also naturally occurring minerals. They are found in limestone formations which consist of Calcium,an element,carbon,an element,and phosphorous,also an element. Do I need to say that all elements are also naturally occurring? Phosphates are limestone rock laced with Phosphorous, nothing more.To process Phosphates you need Sulfuric Acid. Are you guys also "Acid Heads"? It certainly seems like that. You might consider thinking about it. There are also three other minor fertilizers - Calcium,Sulfur,and Magnesium-all elements. It's all so elemental. Sulfur shows up in SOP,Sulfate of Potash,as oppossed to MOP,muriate of Potash or KCL.Back to the beginning.