Carl Spackler

Market Headed to Retest Lows?

Where are all the perma-bulls calling for a bottom now! I love these periods when market participants actually put their rally caps away and think about the fact that stocks could actually fall. As someone who has played the short side for over a year, and who put in his shorts two weeks ago, I have started covering my shorts yesterday. I took half my position out at close yesterday and I will watch the other half closely. I feel that the market will retest lows, but on a short term basis, the market is getting oversold. I have my own self-made indicator and it is flashing that there will be a counter trend rally in the next few days. I think this coming little rally will take a few days, and may encompass roughly 25 to 50 S&P points and then we can reload up on the short side. If the market continues downward, I will gladly profit from my remaining 50% position, but do not be like the perma-bulls - take profits on the way down and be ready to cover and reload your cash.

S&P 500 and Apple Playing Out Bearish Patterns

You paint a very good picture of the near term landscape. The next 30 days will be governed by how this acending triangle pattern plays out. I feel that the direction over the next 10 days is down and that if it breaks the containment of this pattern we will test the old lows and probably breal them. S&P 700-720 is the probable target. This would also correspond to a time period that is an emotional low for most businesses - retail sales are usually at their poorest levels, winters gloom is hitting us hard, everyone will be waiting until the Obama presidency and most businesses are facing their weakest sales month. It presents a great set up for a very strong down movement.

Mr Awesome, do not bash Zach for presenting his comments and beliefs. He presented his case with logical thought and as we have seen in the last year, being a professional analyst does not provide you with any further insight to the market as any average Joe has. Even the great Warren Buffet is licking his wounds, so if you want just bullish propaganda in your internet readings, go look at some Merrill Lynch research papers. If you want to get the pulse of this market, however, read the bullish and bearish blogs from both professionals and experienced investors.