Carl Spackler

A Major Market Correction Is Inevitable

I agree with your view on where the market is going, but it is unfair to say state governments are deeper in debt. Their balance sheets are relatively the same, although they now have less revenues. State governments are required to balance their budgets. Some use financial gimmickry (like California), but they (unlike the US Govt) must balance their revenues to their expenditures. Then bigger issue is the consumer's balance sheet which is in the toilet.

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Bernake and the Feds gave some passing compliment to the dollar, but it just a passing comment. This administration's true colors were shown when Obama mentioned recently that his belief is that US exporters will pull us out of this mess. That means this administration is behind a weak dollar campaign in the futile hope that exports can drive our economy.

This will go down as a massive miscalculation. Our economy is only 30% manufacturing, and such a small sector will not drive growth much. The damage of a depreciating currency on the remaining 70% of businesses will cripple us long term. We will have a small group of companies doing well, and a bunch doing poorly.

U.S. Treasuries in a Bubble, Not Commodities

I like Mark Anthony's hat almost as much as my assistant greenskeeper hat in my Carl Spackler picture! Couldn't agree more with the arguments here - US Treasuries are 150-200 basis points too low. Eventually, just like water, things find their natural level despite man's interference.

Looking for Signs of a Dollar Rally

Hey Sage! Learn to read posts. I did not write the Varmit Cong comment, I was just commenting on it. FYI - it is a reference to the movie Caddyshack that another poster made because Carl Spackler is a character in the movie. BTW - cool your jets. While I am a LT dollar bear, I actually believe it is due for a good run up (perhaps overdue).

Looking for Signs of a Dollar Rally

I like it! Funny!


On Nov 02 06:19 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> Carl,
>
> The dollar is not the friendly rabbit or the harmless squirrel.<br/>
>
> It is a varmint. The Fed has made it an adversary, like the Viet
> Cong.
>
> The dollar is Varmint Cong.
>
> And, as such, we're all licensed by the government of the United
> Nations to take all necessary actions.
>
> So, we've got that going for us.
>
> Which is nice.

Looking for Signs of a Dollar Rally

One thought keeps entering into my mind - if the dollar continues to fall, then Oil and othe commodities will continue to rise. Our economy started its big fall when Oil ran too high. According to many economists, the current increase in the price of Oil already has negated half the impact of the economic stimulus. If the dollar fell further and Oil went to 80, 90, or 100, wouldn't economic activity hit the skids? If this is true, the markets would fall, and the dollar would rally as everyone searched for a safe haven? It appears as though a dollar rally is really a "when" and not an "if" question. Long term, I am a big dollar bear, but the conditions do not support a big dollar fall right now. I hate to even consider buying the dollar, but it does look to be the smarter play right now.

Market Bounce Not Unexpected

Question for the author: Have you analyzed and back tested what happens when the rising support line of stocks above their 50 day MA gets broken? It might be interesting.

ETF Market Trends: Bears Emerge from Hibernation in Oversold Market

Fair enough Mr Hill! I just believe that the action of the last few days hardly constitutes a major oversold condition. We have only corrected 5% from the recent highs - not exactly a thorough correction by any measure. If we were talking at least 10%, I would say we finally are seeing a meaningful minor correction. After a 60% up move, 5% is nothing but a random movement. A major up move like we have had should eventually see a 15% to 20% correction at a minimum. I am just saying that to say we are oversold might be right if we are trading with a horizon of two weeks, but on a longer term basis than that we are not really oversold.


On Oct 28 06:58 PM J Clinton Hill wrote:

> <img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">
>
>
> carl,
>
> no where in this post do i quantify the market being down "5 out
> of 6" days and/or associate or imply the market being oversold for
> this reason.
>
> it is true, after today's close, the market is down 5 out of 6 days.
>
>
> i state that the market is "approaching the boundaries of extremely
> oversold territory" which implies that this is not yet its current
> condition. however, it is moving towards "extremely oversold" based
> upon percentage qualifiers and historically tested models.
>
> nothing is infallible, but if it makes you feel good to give yourself
> a pat on the back by saying "gotcha" to an analyst/writer, then god
> bless you...
>
> my determination for the market being overbought or oversold is derived
> from proprietary technical indicators. during the extended rally,
> i have labeled the market overbought on several occasions.
>
> when the facts change, i change my opinion. my investment bias is
> dictated by the trend tables that i have organized and if the trend
> is down for a short, intermediate, or long term basis then my bias
> corresponds appropriately with the market trends. you only need refer
> to the trend tables to learn my investment bias.
>
> if you have followed any of my writings on technical analysis over
> the years, i continually caution readers that markets can stay overbought
> or oversold for extended periods of time.
>
> statistically, a disproprotionate percentage of stocks are displaying
> oversold signals vs. overbought based upon proprietary oscillators
> and price-volume indicators.
>
> 1020 to 1040 is key support zone. if we break 1020, the odds favor
> us testing 990 levels. until the market arrives at this testing area,
> it is premature to call things one way or another. the only thing
> i know is that the short-term trend is down. after i conduct my analysis
> this evening, my conclusions may be better or worse... let's wait
> and see...
>
> what i am trying to do is alert people to a potential anomaly and
> the vulnerability of getting bitch slapped by following the herds
> of sheeple. i find it quite unusual and disturbing for the market
> to advance for such a long period of time and flash oversold signals
> so early after only 5 trailing days of relatively small negative
> performance.
>
> in terms of overbought or oversold, indicators can be applied to
> different time frames. Short-term the market is oversold. Intermediate
> term, the market still remains overbought.
>
> also, if you read my reports regularly, then you should know that
> i am fundamentally bearish on the market while acknowledging that
> the technicals have been bullish...
>
> in terms of logic, i am not always linear in my thinking or interpretation
> of the environments in which i interact...
>
> hopefully this clarifies my investment bias for you and other readers...
>
>
> thanks...

ETF Market Trends: Bears Emerge from Hibernation in Oversold Market

I am curious. You mention that after 5 out of the last 6 days were down the market is extremely oversold, however, in the last six months there were countless times the market was up 5 out of 6 days. Was the market then overbought? History says no. Movements can continue like this (and like the during the move up) for quite sometime.

Right now, we just find ourselves on the support levels of 1035-1040. If we break this, we could see another 5 out of 6 days down. If we hold, we could see more up days. Markets tend to sit on critical levels and wait for news to move them one way or another. If we see bad news over the next few days, you will know that aa new trend has emerged.

What is very apparent is your bullish bias. If a few bad days means a market is oversold, what does 6 months and 60% up mean - overbought? How can we be both?

Stocks May Not Fully Correct Until 2010

Nice call. You pronounce no correction coming and we get a good 2.5% throttling. I should have guessed this. For the most of 2009, most SA articles were bearish. In the last month, most have been bullish with many predicting a further move up. I should have had my radar ears tingling with this fact.

What Kind of Market Rally Is This?

Could not the same be said about a "sentiment-driven" bear run the market may make? If we see the economy starting to slide or even stall, why wouldn't these same players start to sell the market without seeing actual backsliding. In other words, it flows both ways on sentiment. Doesn't that make this article a big waste of time? Gee, it could go up or down based on non-factual information! In the end, 95% of day to day movement is based upon traders' hopes, not their actual data.

Dead Cats Are Bouncing

I seriously doubt any short traders can move the market with their "negativisms" on any posting on Seeking Alpha. Perhaps you need to join forces with all the Goldbugs who believe that the Fed is conspiring to keep gold prices low. You could start a X-Files type organization which believes that aliens and short sellers are trying to take over the world!


On Jul 09 12:17 PM Manifestor wrote:

> Depends on what you are rooting for. If it is the economy yes it
> stinks and yes you have to wait and there will come a time when you,
> me and everyone including the politicians will know that the economy
> is robust. But if it is the market and if you want to buy low and
> sell high, you have to get in when the economy is in the dumps, like
> where it is now. Of course there are risks, but the risk of getting
> in when the economy is good is even greater because that is when
> Fed would raise rates and companies will have difficulty beating
> expectations. Now if you are a short trader as many here are, you
> have to work very hard constantly feeding these blogwaves with your
> negativism to influence reader opinion.

Dead Cats Are Bouncing

To know when this recession is over will be easy. When you see month to month increases in retail sales, we are at the bottom. Go to any mall and you will see shoppers, but very few bags. Without consumer sales, our economy cannot grow. Forget all the other stats, because this is the driver of everything. Right now, retail sales are dismal and the market's outlook mirrors that of retail sales.

Beginning of Another Big Market Decline? Not Quite

Hey, lets not give Porsche a bad name! Based on his slant, that Porsche may end up as his best investment.


On Jul 09 12:08 AM punk_ash wrote:

> It seems like you get into your Porsche from the garage in your suburban
> home and go into the garage of the posh downtown building, and take
> the express elevator from there. Your secretary then wishes you good
> morning and gets you your coffee. You do not have a clue what is
> going on outside the Ivory Tower.

Dow 6,000, Part II

To me the best way to filter out the noise is to view the monthly charts. The monthly S&P 500 has just returned to the 12 period average which is still on a negative slope - a well known bouncing point. The general direction on the monthly charts is still solidly down. We are in a very hard resistance point on the monthly charts since they must punch through the 12 month ESA. Until consumer purchases pick up, we will continue down. Daily movements are full of variations and even weekly movements can be deceiving, but the monthly charts never lie