Carl Spackler

Dow 6,000, Part II

To me the best way to filter out the noise is to view the monthly charts. The monthly S&P 500 has just returned to the 12 period average which is still on a negative slope - a well known bouncing point. The general direction on the monthly charts is still solidly down. We are in a very hard resistance point on the monthly charts since they must punch through the 12 month ESA. Until consumer purchases pick up, we will continue down. Daily movements are full of variations and even weekly movements can be deceiving, but the monthly charts never lie

Shorting to Take Advantage of Overbought Market

Since the top of this market was reached, the last 4 times the market crossed to the upside over the 50 day moving average, it quickly retreated. It took during these 4 trips over the 50 day MA only 4 days, 3 days, 36 days, and 14 days before the party was over and the declined resumed. The average days hovering at or above the 50 day MA was 14 days. During bear markets, breaking the 50 day MA only serves as a mark to sell, not a reason to buy. Sell into this rally - do not buy!