Seeking Alpha

Carl Spackler's  Instablog

I graduated with an economics degree and joined an investment house where I learned the investment business using other peoples money. I eventually started my own finance company which I sold a few years ago. I have been a fanatical stock and commodities player for over 25 years. Finally, to... More
  • Finally A Trendline Break!
    Today we saw our first trendline break (of multiple bottoms) in a long time!  As suggested, a close below 1035 should cause us to re-establish some shorts.  At this point, the next levels of support are:
    • S&P 1006
    • S&P 963
    This nine month move has finished a rising wedge pattern that portends a challenge of these levels. 
    Oct 01 09:56 pm | Link | 7 Comments
  • Now Waiting for A Trendline Break
    This market has kept its upward track despite some of the worst fundamentals and valuations in decades.  I remain in the bearish camp and will be one of those who wants to yell "the emperor has no clothes".  You have to had it to the bulls, however, in that they have carried this move over the top.  We will now wait for a clear trendline break of this up move.  The current trendline is at 1035 and a clear close below that figure (say 1030) would spell the end of this move up and a call to enter our shorts.  

    Remember the dot.com bubble.  They always and inevitably do break, and then great money is at the table for the taking!  
    Oct 01 10:26 am | Link | Comment!
  • Waiting for the Move

    Ahhh!   We sit with our short positions nicely weighted in at S&P 1000.  We saw a nice run to 1030 and I picked up some SDS (Inverse S&P) 45 calls almost at the top to add some oomph to my positions,  The bulls are hoping for one more big run, then most hope to dump and run.  My guess is that too many people are hoping to dump on any rally above 1020. 

    More »
    Sep 03 11:21 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Are You Short Right Now?
    As per my recent blogs, you should be averaging in.  If you did so, you should have a short position averaged about the S&P 1000 area.  It is time to sit tight and watch the fireworks now!  Cross your fingers and watch the show.  The bulls are extremely bullish right now and despite the high valuations, they are using their catch phrases such as "future earnings" and "valuations will increase".  In the end, this market and the economy can be summed up with two words - retail sales.  Until retail sales increase month over month for a quarter, we will eventually head down.
    Aug 14 04:49 pm | Link | Comment!
  • Time to Short is Here!

    We have finally reached the shorting zone!  I recommend the following progressive averaging for shorts:

    More »
    Jul 24 11:09 am | Link | Comment!
  • About Ready To Enter the Short Zone!

    We are finally entering the short zone! This market is ready to short in the S&P 975 to 1010 zone.  I fully expect it to crest over 1000 since markets love to take out round numbers, but the best strategy is to average in your shorts.  I plan to scale in as follows

    More »
    Jul 23 11:51 am | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Ticker
SPX

Latest Comments


Most Commented
  1. Finally A Trendline Break! (7 Comments)
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.