With the S&P 500 falling one hundred points off its September high, a growing number of economists are warming up to the idea of a US based recession. The other more optimistic portion continues to place faith in an esoteric soft landing where the economy becomes sluggish, nearly stagnant, while remaining free from the grasp of an actual recession. Although this is an enticing idea in theory, emerging circumstances deem it highly unlikely. What is more realistic is the likelihood of the US's first consumer led recession in nearly two decades.

The primary risk for our economy is the imploding housing market. Since its peak in early 2006, home builders, lenders and those directly connected to the market have felt the pain. This has led to housing starts falling by 47% and home prices by 8% (inflation adjusted). Compared to the nearly 100% (adjusted) price appreciation seen from 2006-1997, it would appear as though the housing market has much farther to fall before we witness a true correction. Given the magnitude of unsold homes and tremendous backlog of residential construction, it becomes apparent that construction investments and prices must fall further to become rebalanced for supply.

There is a growing consensus to develop alternatives for plastics, in order to alleviate our dependency on fossil fuels and decrease our ecological footprint. If we can manufacture plastics from non-petroleum feedstock we will cut our dependency on oil and decrease our production of waste streams in one fell swoop. This is easier said than done; with current petroleum prices this is certainly not an effortless economical endeavor. However, with on-going research and potentially higher feedstock prices, the dynamics of this pendulum could shift.

Enter Metabolix Inc. (MBLX), a freshly IPO'ed biotechnology company developing alternatives to petrochemical-based plastics. In the 1980s, Metabolix's founders Oliver Peoples and Anthony Sinskey demonstrated an enzyme's ability to integrate into microscopic biofactories capable of manufacturing useful polymers such as Polyhydroxyalkanoatesas.

In the realm of commodities, oil is extremely unique. Unlike the precious metals or pork bellies, oil provides us with cost effective transportation, thermal energy to heat our homes, and a matrix for the creation of seemingly endless consumer products. Succinctly put, it provides our economy with the necessary lubrication to transition each day smoothly into the next.

Due to this dependence, it appears that the average consumer and ExxonMobil (XOM) will remained joined at the hip. Why then, with brent crude trading in the $90 range haven't the markets thirst for oil been slaked, or the consumers appetite to spend been squelched?

As of last Monday, the race is officially on to test fly the world’s first commercial airliner powered by biofuels. Yes, you read the aforementioned sentence correctly. The ever creative and bipedal primate known as homo sapien is at it again. This time, we will attempt to fly an aircraft powered with refined plant matter 30,000 feet into the air.

In theory, these turbines, traditionally run on jet fuel, can burn most types of compressed fuel such as diesel, hydrogen and methane. The moment of Zen however, won't be achieved until we take these theories and apply them practically. During a press conference on Monday, Virgin Chairman, Sir Richard Branson announced intentions to test fly a Boeing (BA) 747 fueled by biofuels his Virgin Group was currently developing.

On Thursday, a consortium led by Google (GOOG) launched an initiative to create a list of standards which would encourage open source programmers to develop software for Google's social networking site Orkut.com. In addition to Orkut, Google’s platform, OpenSocial, is said to be compatible across all of the member’s websites, including Friendster, LinkedIn, hi5, Plaxo, and Ning.

The move is believed to be in response to a similar initiative by Facebook last spring, which lead to the development of 5,000 smaller programs capable of integration into individual users’ pages. Popular programs such as RockYou and iLike provide users additional customization within their individual page. Essentially, you get a "Subway sandwich" effect: Your site built with your specifications, hold the onions.

Many speculators, myself included, love to analyze Peak Oil or the plateauing and decline of global oil production. The problem however, with determining global Peak Oil has long been convoluted due to the inherent elusively of Saudi Arabia. Unlike the publicly traded oil conglomerates such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), BP plc (BP) or Total (TOT), Saudi Aramco isn't bound by full disclosure. Since Saudi Arabia has the world's largest proven reserves and Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil producer, the theoretical peaking of Saudi Arabia could indicate the world’s peak.

Today Microvision Inc. (MVIS), a company I have covered before, announced another development agreement with yet another undisclosed Asian consumer electronics manufacturer. Under this agreement, MVIS and it's manufacturing partner "will integrate the PicoP^TM display engine into fully functional stand-alone projector prototypes." These projector prototypes will then be targeted to consumer electronics companies for "private labeling and distribution for mobile applications including mobile phones and other devices."

Oil and gas giant BP plc.(BP) is staged to release 3rd quarter earnings on October 23rd. As previously disclosed by the company's freshly instated CEO, Tony Hayward, earnings should be nothing short of dreadful. Furthermore, Hayward reiterate that BP's results would be the worst financial performance since the 1992-1993 time frame.

To many this should come as odd, since crude oil continues to reach new highs, but for BP, making money in the arena of $80 oil isn't quite so easy. BP has endured a slew of mismanagement and financial problems ranging from tightening margins, falling natural gas prices, overlapping management, refinery explosions and environmental issues. Making matters worse were the politically distasteful homosexual meanderings of ousted CEO Lord Browne.To investors, the end result is a company severally lagging its peers.

The global commodities boom is something of a wonderment. The fledgling economies of Asia, India, Brazil and Russia continue to feed off of each others prosperities. As these economies grow so does their demand for raw materials such as copper, cement and oil. The result is an incredibly strong demand for resources, of the likes which we haven't been seen since the post World War II infrastructure build-out in the United States.

NRG Energy Inc.(NRG), announced plans late Monday of intentions to build and commission a nuclear reactor in Bay City, Texas. NRG's completed construction and operating license submission would mark the first application the government has processed since 1979.

With Constellation Energy Group's partially filed application and several anticipated requests from Dominion Resources Inc. (D) and others, NRG's proposed reactor could signify an inflection point for our aging nuclear energy industry.

Recent economic data revealed the U.S. trade deficit is at nearly $711 billion, down from the $758.5 billion recorded in 2006. While these numbers indicate improvements, historic records have continued to be broken, with 2006 marking the fifth consecutive year of fresh highs. This emergent trend should be a primary concern as economic imbalances widen between the haves and the have-nots. Oil and industry rich countries such as Saudi Arabia and China, must export surpluses as their inventories expands. Inversely, oil and industry poor(er) countries such as the U.S. and Britain must import the gap between the country's supply and the needed demand.

These imbalances have become increasingly skewed as domestic supplies of petroleum have peaked, simultaneously with strong internal demand. This imbalance of supply and demand is met by importing more of the commodity from Canada, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Complicating the situation is Asia's emergence as the iconic global manufacturer of goods. To put it in perspective, "The United States' trade deficit with China climbed last year to $233 billion, the highest ever recorded with a single country."

Brazilian ethanol giant, Cosan, (CZZ) recently debuted on Wall Street with little enthusiasm from investors. The company ultimately raised $1 billion of the sought-after $2 billion.

To the best of my ability, I can't identify any reason why IMAX should beat earnings tomorrow, aside from the impressive theatrical runs of 300, Spiderman III and most recently Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix. While these results are beneficial, IMAX's true revenue generating streams come from the actual signing of of theater installs. Due to the company's recently announced alteration in theater install revenue recognition, and massive theater backlog, it is exceedingly difficult to calculate install revenue.

Questionable revenue timing aside, IMAX's options activity was quite interesting today. As you can see in the schematic below, nearly 800 $5.00 August call options traded hands. This may seem small compared to the option activity seen in large equities such as Cisco Systems (CSCO) or Exxon Mobil (XOM), but today's volume effectively double the entire open interest volume (1,261) in one day of trading! Many investors and traders believe that abnormal or higher option activity can allude to events to come. With minuscule August $5.00 put option volume at 226, one could believe that good news is just around the corner. Earnings, anyone?

The company estimated proven reserves near 9 billion barrels in December of 2005. With current production near 1.3 billion and demand stable, simple division extrapolates seven years as the target depletion date.

You can't escape it, so why don't we all stop trying? From television commercials, to corporate branding and our elected puppets, everyone is deputizing alternative energy, and more specifically biofuels, as the be all and end all to our energy dilemma.

What many fail to realize however is the sheer immensity of this task. The amount of energy we collectively produce from fossil fuels is astronomical. At this point, instead of delving into numerical data, I would like to try a metaphor. Imagine yourself in modern day Beijing. You need to get yourself, your wife and your two kids to some remote destination 30 miles away. Now try to picture the expression on an unsuspecting rickshaw driver's face as you ask him to cart you and your family that very distance, all for a cost of $3.00.

The reason for this is partly because of the company's increasingly attractive technology in this age of inexpensive high definition television and surround sound. Simply put, one can not recreate the IMAX experience in their home. It's just not possible to find a 88 foot high definition TV.

In his 2004 book, The Oil Factor, Leeb returned to the limelight with an unprecedented prediction of soaring energy prices. Three years later, we now appreciate the full maturation of his predictions. While these projections were not all that startling, the true gravity of the situation is. At the time, a simple analysis of demand side economics would have revealed the pressures on energy prices as wealthy Americans adopted the use of sports utility vehicles and the emerging economies of China, India and Russia required a greater energy intensity. Given the low prices at the time, simple deduction would conclude an increase in energy prices.

Of the potential players within the industry, none is more dominant than Archer Daniels Midland (ADM). However, Shares have been hammered some 9% during the last three months due to deteriorating margins related to excessive ethanol supply. While Pacific Ethanol, Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings and others muscled out of their down trends on June 24 after the announcement of possible favorable legislation, Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) continued to slide. This apparently changed on Monday after a Bank of America analyst upgraded ADM to a buy from neutral, citing ADM's " . . . range of assets capable of storing and transporting its products to far-flung places," as a means to capitalize on the swelling market for grains and seeds.

Technicals too are in an apparent reversal, as ADM gapped through its upper descending trendline on July 2nd. Despite this favorable adjustment, the 200 DMA still looms overhead at $34.97; which could provide resistance if ADM is unable to generate sufficient volume to push through this level of overhead supply.

I will say, however, that the technicals have just gotten a whole lot more bearish. Despite the now tarnished chart, the fundamental story has now improved. The question is can longs handle Microvision moving in any direction other than straight up?

MVIS 1-yr chart: