Carlos Lam

Housing Bubble’s Bounce, Then Bust Again?

On Dec 22 01:55 PM calafia_beech wrote:

> How can this be?? The Calafia Beach Pundit says home sales are sky
> rocketing. He is an expert. Calafia says everything is fine.

LOL! Ain't that the truth! Calafia is always donning the rose colored glasses. At least he's an even-handed optimist: he kept saying things "aren't as bad as they seem" during the Bush Administration too.

Single Family Homes Remain Oversupplied by Over 900,000 Units

On Nov 25 07:57 AM dansocalguy wrote:

> What all you housing bears ignore is the importance of housing and
> not just new construction) to the economy at large .... There's so
> many families out there with their incomes tied to downstream spending
> and hiring .... sure it looks bad now ... not a surprise .... but
> will any of you notice when things really start to turn around?<br/>

Things will not begin to "turn around" until our debt overhang is either liquidated or paid off. Household debt to GDP is over 100%, and public debt is ballooning. Things may bump along--better one quarter, worse another--but there will be no real organic growth until we work off the debt that we've accumulated.

Making the Case for Extending the Housing Tax Credit

I don't doubt that the Isakson proposal will pass. Indeed, it may be part of a second "stimulus" bill. Most Congressmen and Senators have no clue (or do not care) that official debt is about $12 TRILLION and our unfunded liabilities are about $50 TRILLION. They are flippant about adding more to the debt in the search for "stimulating" their chances to win re-election.

As to Volcker saying "no," I doubt it. He's shown that he's very comfortable with the attention that Pres. Obama has lavished on him. When he had the chance to stand up and object to the immense debt the federal government has taken on, he's always punted. Until Volcker noisily resigns and calls out the current regime for what it's doing (taking on debt, printing, and attempting to reflate a bubble), he has lost all respect I had for him.

This Just In: Refinance at 125% of Market Value

Great! Now, in addition to dangling an $8,000 tax credit so that first-time homebuyers (i.e. anybody who hasn't owned a home in 3 years) can take on more debt, the government is pushing debt on those who will be better off financially if their loan is liquidated & they rent. I'm so glad that they're looking out for the "little guy" & encouraging him to resume over-leveraging himself.