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Carlton Chin
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Carlton Chin, CFA, is Managing Director, Portfolio Strategy & Research at Price Asset Mgmt (PAM) and portfolio manager and head of research for ADAMAH Capital, which specializes in Computer Aided Research & Advanced Technology (CARAT). He is a specialist in quantitative investment... More
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Price Asset Mgmt & ADAMAH / CARAT Capital
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Baseball + Numbers = Fun & Games
• ##### 2014 Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities By Quarter

Are you in one of those popular Super Bowl Square Pools? Pool participants are randomly assigned numbers randomly, like Denver 3, Seattle 7. If your numbers match the last digits of the actual score at the end of any quarter, you win a prize. For instance, if you had this square of Denver 3 and Seattle 3, and the final score is 33-17 for Denver, you would win the big prize.

Here are the probabilities of your numbers winning, for the final score. In the link below, we also compute the probabilities for the square pool winner for each quarter.

If you are participating in a square pool (where only the last digit for each team counts), you will be randomly assigned a digit for each team, such as the Seattle Seahawks (or NFC) 3, and the Denver Broncos (or AFC) 4. Many fans have an idea of what numbers are "good." Here, we compute square pool probabilities, or odds, based on historical results by quarter.
Most people know that numbers like 7, 3, and 0 are good, due to the key numbers associated with touchdowns and field goals. But how good are these numbers? And what about the 4, 6, or 1? Several years ago, I computed the probabilities of the digits winning for each quarter - based on every Super Bowl ever played. The results were published by the New York Times, in their Super Bowl Sunday spread print edition.
Jan 28 10:01 AM | Link | Comment!
• ##### 2014 BCS: Auburn Vs. Florida State

Based on research with my friend, Dr. Jay Granat - a psychotherapist - we have analyzed factors related to sports psychology. Our series of articles is based on several decades worth of championship results (depending on the sport). Our work has predicted the winner of major sports championships at a 62% rate (sometimes picking underdogs) -- and is regularly featured in the New York Times.

Here is our analysis for the 2014 BCS game between Auburn and Florida State.

Defense

Our research shows that defense is more closely related to winning championships than a high-octane offense. In college football, the team with the better defense in terms of points scored has won 53.3% of championship games since the B.C.S. began fifteen years ago. Another key statistic has the team with the better defense - as measured by average yards yielded per rush - winning 71.4% of the games over the past 14 years (since the statistic is widely available).

In defensive points against, Florida State (10.7 points against / game) is ranked better than Auburn (24.0). Florida State also performed better than Auburn in defensive yards per rush. Florida State held opponents to 3.1 yards / rush versus Auburn's 4.6 yards / rush. Edge: Florida State.

Consistency

Consistency is an important factor in winning championships across all sports. In both professional football and college football, average yards per rush is a good indicator of consistency and control of the game. The team with the better rushing statistic has won 57.1% of the championship games over the past 14 years. Auburn has run for 6.5 yards per rush, versus Florida State's 5.7 yards per rush. Edge: Auburn.

Minimizing Errors

Minimizing mistakes is also crucial to winning the big game. Statistics show that teams which execute better during the regular season also perform well in championships. In both college and professional football, the team with fewer interceptions during the regular season has won a large majority of title games.

Over the past 15 years of college football, the team with fewer interceptions has won 60% of national championship games. Auburn threw 7 interceptions this year, while Florida State threw 13. Although Florida State passes much more than Auburn, Auburn's interception rate is also better than Florida State. Edge: Auburn.

Big Game Experience & Coaching Leadership

Big game experience and coaching has a positive relationship with winning championships across all major U.S. sports. On average, these factors work out to about a 60% success rate in sports we studied. However, the experience factor, as measured by finals appearances over the past three years, posts just a 4-6 (40%) record since the B.C.S. began. Auburn won the B.C.S. Championship in 2010. Florida State has not made a championship final game over the past three years. Big game experience: Auburn.

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher has a 3-0 record in major bowls, all with Florida State over the past three years. On the other hand, this is the first major bowl for Auburn coach Gus Malzahn. Coaching edge: Florida State.

Strength of Schedule

Some sports fans will point out differences in strength of schedule, or S.O.S. For example, Auburn played Alabama (ranked #1 at the time of the game), Missouri (#5), and a total of six teams ranked in the top 25 in compiling a 12-1 record. Florida State played Clemson (#3 at the time of the game) and four ranked teams during their 13-0 season.

Over the past 15 years, the team with the better strength of schedule, as measured by SportsReference.com, has won 53.3% of championships. It is noteworthy that when the difference in S.O.S. has been greater than 3.0 during this 15 year period, the team with the tougher schedule has gone 4-0 in the championship. This year's game features the widest S.O.S. spread since the B.C.S. began. Auburn has a S.O.S. of 6.62 versus Florida State's -0.06.

Summary and Football Simulator

Our championship factors related to concepts of sports psychology, favor Auburn 3-2. In addition, we model football games based on certain random variables, statistics, and our championship factors. Our football simulator is a probabilistic Monte Carlo model, based on statistics from the regular season.

Based on our simulator, the final score that comes up most frequently is: Auburn 35 - Florida State 34.

Tags: sports, football
Jan 06 8:00 PM | Link | Comment!
• ##### Gold Continues Sell-Off 4/15/13

Gold continued the extreme sell-off it saw on Friday, when it dropped from about 1565 to 1500 (basis the June 2013 futures contract). Over the weekend and into the New York opening on Monday, April 15, 2013, gold is seeing a breathtaking drop to the 1400 level. This drop of about 10% shows why traders often have risk management approaches in place and act first -- and ask questions later. Gold is now at two-year lows (at the lows of 2011 and 2012).

In futures trading, trend-followers are often seen as "reactive" -- but technical traders who follow trends have also seen their approaches be "predictive." Other precious metals such as silver and platinum, and related markets such as the Aussie dollar are also selling off in sympathy. In fact, many other commodities are also lower, including grains and the oil complex. The Rogers International Commodity Index and GSCI are all materially lower today.

More on the technical selling from the CME:

The gold futures markets opened in New York on Friday 12th April to a monumental 3.4 million ounces (100 tonnes) of gold selling of the June futures contract (see below) in what proved to be only an opening shot. The selling took gold to the technically very

important level of \$1540 which was not only the low of 2012, it was also seen by many as the level which confirmed the ongoing bull run which dates back to 2000. In many traders minds it stood as a formidable support level... the line in the sand.

Two hours later the initial selling, rumoured to have been routed through Merrill Lynch's floor team, by a rather more significant blast when the floor was hit by a further 10 million ounces of selling (300 tonnes) over the following 30 minutes of trading. This was clearly not a case of disappointed longs leaving the market - it had the hallmarks of a concerted 'short sale', which by driving prices sharply lower in a display of 'shock &amp; awe' - would seek to gain further momentum by prompting others to also sell as their positions as they hit their maximum acceptable losses or so-called 'stopped-out' in market parlance - probably hidden the unimpeachable (?) \$1540 level.

The selling was timed for optimal impact with New York at its most liquid, while key overseas gold markets including London were open and able feel the impact. The estimated 400 tonne of gold futures selling in total equates to 15% of annual gold mine production - too much for the market to readily absorb, especially with sentiment weak following gold's non performance in the wake of Japanese QE, a nuclear threat from North Korea and weakening US economic data. The assault to the short side was essentially saying "you are long... and wrong".

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/metals/2013/04/pre-open-gold_3564.html

And why is gold selling off? Some say it is the result of China's latest round of economic numbers (China GDP), and others report that stories of Cyprus selling gold reserves (related to the Greek crisis) is hitting the gold market.

Apr 15 9:09 AM | Link | Comment!

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