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    <title>Carol Flake Chapman's Instablog</title>
    <description>Carol Flake Chapman is a well-known journalist and book author who was one of the founding editors of Vanity Fair Magazine. She&#8217;s written for national magazines and newspapers like the New York Times, U.S. News &amp; World Report, and the New Yorker. She&#8217;s turned her skills for investigative reporting and trend spotting to investing and helping other women learn how to invest.
   Her moment of truth came as she was on her way to sign away her life&#8217;s savings to an unscrupulous broker and got a traffic ticket for speeding. She realized she needed to slow down and learn about investing with the same tenacity she had used to earn a Ph.D, to win medals for road racing, and to work her way to the top of the journalism world.
   As she not only survived but thrived in the stock market, she soon realized that she could share what she had learned with other women. Woman with Portfolio: The Smart Woman&#8217;s Online Guide to Investing (http://www.womanwithportfolio.com/) is the result of her dream to build an online community of women investors. Her motto is &#8220;Investing without losing your shirt, your sleep or your soul.&#8221; To her surprise, several men have also joined the site.
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    <author>
      <name>Carol Flake Chapman</name>
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    <link>http://seekingalpha.com</link>
    <item>
      <title>It Turns Out that Wrinkles Are Worth Quite a Lot</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/130476-carol-flake-chapman/33969-it-turns-out-that-wrinkles-are-worth-quite-a-lot?source=feed</link>
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        <![CDATA[I wrote about Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) back on June 16, when the stock was trading at a little over $22. The company came to my notice because of Efudex, its treatment for actinic keratosis and basal cell carcinoma. Not only does the treatment work to remedy an almost epidemic growth in skin cancer among baby boomers -- it turns out that the treatment also improves the appearance of the skin. After undergoing surgical treatment myself for basal cell carcinoma, I can safely say that patients who have a choice will opt for the cream over surgery. The improvement in appearance is a bonus.<br> <br>Since then, the stock has run up to $29, and after its earnings report this morning, it was up another 12% at $33 in pre-market trading, making a gain of 50% in four and a half months.<br><br>The company reported total revenue of $220.3 million in the third quarter of 2009, an increase of 31% over the third quarter of 2008. Product sales in the company's Specialty Pharmaceuticals segment, which includes Efudex, increased 45% to $101.6 million. And what's more the company has raised guidance for 2009 to between $2.10 and $2.20, up from prior guidance of $1.90 to $2.10.<br><br>I am long VRX and happy to be so.<br><br><span><p><i><br></i></p><p>&nbsp;</p></span>]]>
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      <pubDate>Mon, 02 Nov 2009 08:58:59 -0500</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[I wrote about Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) back on June 16, when the stock was trading at a little over $22. The company came to my notice because of Efudex, its treatment for actinic keratosis and basal cell carcinoma. Not only does the treatment work to remedy an almost epidemic growth in skin cancer among baby boomers -- it turns out that the treatment also improves the appearance of the skin. After undergoing surgical treatment myself for basal cell carcinoma, I can safely say that patients who have a choice will opt for the cream over surgery. The improvement in appearance is a bonus.<br> <br>Since then, the stock has run up to $29, and after its earnings report this morning, it was up another 12% at $33 in pre-market trading, making a gain of 50% in four and a half months.<br><br>The company reported total revenue of $220.3 million in the third quarter of 2009, an increase of 31% over the third quarter of 2008. Product sales in the company's Specialty Pharmaceuticals segment, which includes Efudex, increased 45% to $101.6 million. And what's more the company has raised guidance for 2009 to between $2.10 and $2.20, up from prior guidance of $1.90 to $2.10.<br><br>I am long VRX and happy to be so.<br><br><span><p><i><br></i></p><p>&nbsp;</p></span>]]>
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      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vrx/instablogs">vrx</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/health">health</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/skin cancer">skin cancer</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/wrinkle treatment">wrinkle treatment</category>
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      <title>The Flu Stock Bonanza</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/130476-carol-flake-chapman/25688-the-flu-stock-bonanza?source=feed</link>
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        <![CDATA[&nbsp;Flu Bonanza  <p><span>When the swine flu first began claiming victims back in April, I predicted here in one of my posts that a number of stocks would be affected, including makers of preventative vaccines, flu tests, treatments and sanitary products like surgical masks. As it turns out, every stock I mentioned has risen, from vaccine maker Roche (RHHBY) and test makers Quidel (QDEL) and Life Technologies (LIFE) to mask maker Alphaprotec (APT). The more speculative stocks I mentioned have risen the most, including Novavax (NVAX), Biocryst (BCRX) and Sinovac (SVA).</span></p>    <p><span>Here are the percentages of gains from April to Sept. 1:</span></p>    <p><span>RHHBY: 40%</span></p>    <p><span>QDEL: 45%</span></p>    <p><span>LIFE: 52%</span></p>    <p><span>APT: 500%</span></p>    <p><span>BCRX: 800%</span></p>    <p><span>NVAX: 745%<br><br>SVA: 850%<br><br>Disclosure: I am long RHHBY, LIFE, QDEL, BCRX and SVA.<br><br><br></span></p>    ]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Sep 2009 15:02:16 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[&nbsp;Flu Bonanza  <p><span>When the swine flu first began claiming victims back in April, I predicted here in one of my posts that a number of stocks would be affected, including makers of preventative vaccines, flu tests, treatments and sanitary products like surgical masks. As it turns out, every stock I mentioned has risen, from vaccine maker Roche (RHHBY) and test makers Quidel (QDEL) and Life Technologies (LIFE) to mask maker Alphaprotec (APT). The more speculative stocks I mentioned have risen the most, including Novavax (NVAX), Biocryst (BCRX) and Sinovac (SVA).</span></p>    <p><span>Here are the percentages of gains from April to Sept. 1:</span></p>    <p><span>RHHBY: 40%</span></p>    <p><span>QDEL: 45%</span></p>    <p><span>LIFE: 52%</span></p>    <p><span>APT: 500%</span></p>    <p><span>BCRX: 800%</span></p>    <p><span>NVAX: 745%<br><br>SVA: 850%<br><br>Disclosure: I am long RHHBY, LIFE, QDEL, BCRX and SVA.<br><br><br></span></p>    ]]>
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    <item>
      <title>How Much Is a Wrinkle Worth?</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/130476-carol-flake-chapman/8557-how-much-is-a-wrinkle-worth?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">8557</guid>
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        <![CDATA[<p><span>A very good friend in her early 80s recently had to use a prescription skin cream to remove some precancerous spots on her face. Her face turned red and blotchy for a week, but after the treatment, not only were the lesions gone; so were some wrinkles. I made a note, wondering if this was the usual result. If so, I thought, here's an inexpensive and effective wrinkle treatment, similar to Retin A, but stronger. And maybe a promising stock. And this morning, I came across a report confirming what I had suspected.</span></p><p><span>According to a study in the June issue of Archives of Dermatology, a skin cream containing fluorouracil, a chemotherapy medicine that treats precancerous skin patches, also reduced sun damage and wrinkles on the faces of 21 people who used the drug. Researchers saw improvements over 24 weeks in dark spots, yellow skin tone and hyperpigmentation, according to the study. The fluorouracil caused the skin to become red and irritated, making it peel as it worked to eliminate unhealthy skin, study authors said.</span></p><p><span>The result was consistent with my friend's experience, who described her face as looking like raw hamburger for a few days. She was pleasantly surprised, however, by the quality of her skin after it healed. </span></p><p><span> Doctors use cream with fluorouracil, which is available as a generic and under the brand name Efudex from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX), to treat skin lesions caused by intense sun exposure. Those spots, called actinic keratoses, are considered to be precancerous. Lead study author Dana Sachs told a reporter she&rsquo;s not sure if fluorouracil would reduce wrinkles in those with healthy skin and that a study is needed to answer that question.   Sachs,&nbsp;an associate professor of dermatology at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, said that the study says only that it works for moderate-to-severe sun damage. That benefit also comes with a drawback, she said, emphasizing that the inflammation and irritation in the skin are necessary in order to gain the improvement. She told an interviewer, &ldquo;This is a rough treatment.&rdquo;</span></p><p><span> This was the first study to show that fluorouracil cream improves sun-damaged skin, which includes dark spots, hyperpigmentation and sallow complexion as well as wrinkles.  I looked at the fundamentals and valuation of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and found that it rates about a B. But that doesn't include any benefits yet from this new study. Analysts give it a price target of $27 a share, although, again, that doesn't reflect any potential boost from the study. I also saw a recent pattern of insider buying at a price close to its current price of just under $23 </span></p><p><span>The two main questions that affect future sales of the cream for cosmetic purposes are whether it will work on women with healthy skin, and whether women will be willing to accept the inconvenience of a very red face for a week in order to gain the benefits. But then nearly every woman over a certain age has sustained some sun damage. That's a large group of potential users. And from my experience, with friends who are willing to undergo hours on a operating table for a facelift, or two weeks of seclusion following a chemical peel, a week or so of redness is a minor inconvenience by comparison.</span></p><p><span>It's important to note that within 10 weeks of starting the cream, 19 of 20 participants in the study said the sun damage to their skin was improved. Also, 16 of 19 said their wrinkles were improved, including 8 who called that benefit &ldquo;mild.&rdquo; Although 12 of 19 patients reported the treatment was uncomfortable, 17 said they would be willing to undergo the therapy again, according to the authors </span></p><p><span>Women are willing to undergo some discomfort and inconvenience for the sake of appearances. Just look at enduring popularity of spike heels. </span></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><span><br></span></p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Tue, 16 Jun 2009 12:17:41 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p><span>A very good friend in her early 80s recently had to use a prescription skin cream to remove some precancerous spots on her face. Her face turned red and blotchy for a week, but after the treatment, not only were the lesions gone; so were some wrinkles. I made a note, wondering if this was the usual result. If so, I thought, here's an inexpensive and effective wrinkle treatment, similar to Retin A, but stronger. And maybe a promising stock. And this morning, I came across a report confirming what I had suspected.</span></p><p><span>According to a study in the June issue of Archives of Dermatology, a skin cream containing fluorouracil, a chemotherapy medicine that treats precancerous skin patches, also reduced sun damage and wrinkles on the faces of 21 people who used the drug. Researchers saw improvements over 24 weeks in dark spots, yellow skin tone and hyperpigmentation, according to the study. The fluorouracil caused the skin to become red and irritated, making it peel as it worked to eliminate unhealthy skin, study authors said.</span></p><p><span>The result was consistent with my friend's experience, who described her face as looking like raw hamburger for a few days. She was pleasantly surprised, however, by the quality of her skin after it healed. </span></p><p><span> Doctors use cream with fluorouracil, which is available as a generic and under the brand name Efudex from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (VRX), to treat skin lesions caused by intense sun exposure. Those spots, called actinic keratoses, are considered to be precancerous. Lead study author Dana Sachs told a reporter she&rsquo;s not sure if fluorouracil would reduce wrinkles in those with healthy skin and that a study is needed to answer that question.   Sachs,&nbsp;an associate professor of dermatology at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, said that the study says only that it works for moderate-to-severe sun damage. That benefit also comes with a drawback, she said, emphasizing that the inflammation and irritation in the skin are necessary in order to gain the improvement. She told an interviewer, &ldquo;This is a rough treatment.&rdquo;</span></p><p><span> This was the first study to show that fluorouracil cream improves sun-damaged skin, which includes dark spots, hyperpigmentation and sallow complexion as well as wrinkles.  I looked at the fundamentals and valuation of Valeant Pharmaceuticals, and found that it rates about a B. But that doesn't include any benefits yet from this new study. Analysts give it a price target of $27 a share, although, again, that doesn't reflect any potential boost from the study. I also saw a recent pattern of insider buying at a price close to its current price of just under $23 </span></p><p><span>The two main questions that affect future sales of the cream for cosmetic purposes are whether it will work on women with healthy skin, and whether women will be willing to accept the inconvenience of a very red face for a week in order to gain the benefits. But then nearly every woman over a certain age has sustained some sun damage. That's a large group of potential users. And from my experience, with friends who are willing to undergo hours on a operating table for a facelift, or two weeks of seclusion following a chemical peel, a week or so of redness is a minor inconvenience by comparison.</span></p><p><span>It's important to note that within 10 weeks of starting the cream, 19 of 20 participants in the study said the sun damage to their skin was improved. Also, 16 of 19 said their wrinkles were improved, including 8 who called that benefit &ldquo;mild.&rdquo; Although 12 of 19 patients reported the treatment was uncomfortable, 17 said they would be willing to undergo the therapy again, according to the authors </span></p><p><span>Women are willing to undergo some discomfort and inconvenience for the sake of appearances. Just look at enduring popularity of spike heels. </span></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><span><br></span></p>]]>
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      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/vrx/instablogs">vrx</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/healthcare">healthcare</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/dermatology">dermatology</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/cosmetic surgery">cosmetic surgery</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/skin creams">skin creams</category>
      <category type="symbol" link="http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/tag/anti-wrinkle treatment">anti-wrinkle treatment</category>
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      <title>The Flu Effect</title>
      <link>http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/130476-carol-flake-chapman/1943-the-flu-effect?source=feed</link>
      <guid isPermaLink="false">1943</guid>
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        <![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p><p><span>The sudden appearance of a new strain of influenza has become a dramatic lesson in stock market dynamics. If we apply chaos theory to the market, a cough in Mexico can cause an economic storm in Asia.</span></p><p>Markets in Asia and Europe dropped sharply on speculation that the outbreak of swine flu will curtail travel and consumer spending. Shares of airlines and hotels were particularly hard hit, which is not surprising. The price of corn and soybeans dropped as well on speculation that an outbreak of swine flu may reduce demand for pork, and consequently the grains that feed them.</p><p>The World Health Organization called the outbreak a &ldquo;public health emergency of international concern,&rdquo; raising concerns of a similar outbreak to the H5N1 bird virus that spread across Asia in the past few years killing millions of poultry and several hundred people and slowing trade.</p><p>Asian money managers expressed fears that like the previous bird flu cases, this outbreak may slow international trade and disrupt government&rsquo;s effort for an economic recovery.</p><p>On the other hand, shares of companies that will benefit from the outbreak have risen. The obvious ones are Roche (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AgKIkWzWx2yIUtXEMjVmMAikfqU5/SIG=11ctjpkea/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=rhhby.pk" target="_blank">RHHBY</a>), the maker of Tamiflu, and GlaxoSmithKline (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AhJc2yKIQk.14GfSKD16f5GkfqU5/SIG=1171h07ug/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=gsk" target="_blank">GSK</a>), which produces Relenza, the other medication used to combat flu symptoms. Basel, Switzerland-based, Roche, which said it has an ample supply of the Tamiflu treatment that can reduce swine flu symptoms, added 3.9 percent in Europe to 145 Swiss francs. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., the Tokyo-based unit of Roche, surged 14 percent in Asia to 1,845 yen. Roche gained a similar amount in the U.S. market on Monday, while Glaxo climbed even more, up to a 7% gain.&nbsp;</p><p>Similarly, shares of Biota, the small Australian company that holds the patent for Relenza, soared nearly 80% in that market.</p><p><span>Another company, this one based in the U.S., will also benefit, and that&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=ArbSAzHwSv4n7zOIi5Q.GMakfqU5/SIG=1185g5up3/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=gild" target="_blank">Gilead (GILD)</a>, which holds the patent for Tamiflu and will receive a percentage of Roche&rsquo;s profits. It&rsquo;s a much larger and more diversified company than Biota, however, and obviously won&rsquo;t gain nearly as much. Other companies that will benefit include the makers of surgical masks, which would include 3M (MMM) and Kimberly Clark (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=ApC_oPwu32LAxDY34izYctakfqU5/SIG=117j8nsdh/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=kmb" target="_blank">KMB</a>). Of these, Kimberly Clark would be the better choice for investors. The company maintains a <a href="http://www.kchealthcare.com/pandemicflu/PPE%20Demand%20Calculator.asp" target="_blank">Web site</a> for preparedness in case of a pandemic.</span></p><p>Still another beneficiary is Quidel (QDEL), which makes rapid diagnostic kits for the flu.</p><p>More speculative stocks, which have already doubled and then pulled back a bit, include two makers of flu vaccines that are still being tested, Novavax (NVAX) and Biocryst (BCRX).</p><p>If the market holds to previous patterns, the stocks that plummeted the most will regain ground over the next few days, while those that have climbed the highest and fastest will pull back, leaving those that have made only modest or even negligible gains, like Gilead and Kimberly Clark, in the best position.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Disclosure: Long GILD&nbsp;</p>]]>
      </content>
      <pubDate>Mon, 27 Apr 2009 07:53:07 -0400</pubDate>
      <description>
        <![CDATA[<p>&nbsp;</p><p><span>The sudden appearance of a new strain of influenza has become a dramatic lesson in stock market dynamics. If we apply chaos theory to the market, a cough in Mexico can cause an economic storm in Asia.</span></p><p>Markets in Asia and Europe dropped sharply on speculation that the outbreak of swine flu will curtail travel and consumer spending. Shares of airlines and hotels were particularly hard hit, which is not surprising. The price of corn and soybeans dropped as well on speculation that an outbreak of swine flu may reduce demand for pork, and consequently the grains that feed them.</p><p>The World Health Organization called the outbreak a &ldquo;public health emergency of international concern,&rdquo; raising concerns of a similar outbreak to the H5N1 bird virus that spread across Asia in the past few years killing millions of poultry and several hundred people and slowing trade.</p><p>Asian money managers expressed fears that like the previous bird flu cases, this outbreak may slow international trade and disrupt government&rsquo;s effort for an economic recovery.</p><p>On the other hand, shares of companies that will benefit from the outbreak have risen. The obvious ones are Roche (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AgKIkWzWx2yIUtXEMjVmMAikfqU5/SIG=11ctjpkea/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=rhhby.pk" target="_blank">RHHBY</a>), the maker of Tamiflu, and GlaxoSmithKline (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=AhJc2yKIQk.14GfSKD16f5GkfqU5/SIG=1171h07ug/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=gsk" target="_blank">GSK</a>), which produces Relenza, the other medication used to combat flu symptoms. Basel, Switzerland-based, Roche, which said it has an ample supply of the Tamiflu treatment that can reduce swine flu symptoms, added 3.9 percent in Europe to 145 Swiss francs. Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., the Tokyo-based unit of Roche, surged 14 percent in Asia to 1,845 yen. Roche gained a similar amount in the U.S. market on Monday, while Glaxo climbed even more, up to a 7% gain.&nbsp;</p><p>Similarly, shares of Biota, the small Australian company that holds the patent for Relenza, soared nearly 80% in that market.</p><p><span>Another company, this one based in the U.S., will also benefit, and that&rsquo;s&nbsp;<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=ArbSAzHwSv4n7zOIi5Q.GMakfqU5/SIG=1185g5up3/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=gild" target="_blank">Gilead (GILD)</a>, which holds the patent for Tamiflu and will receive a percentage of Roche&rsquo;s profits. It&rsquo;s a much larger and more diversified company than Biota, however, and obviously won&rsquo;t gain nearly as much. Other companies that will benefit include the makers of surgical masks, which would include 3M (MMM) and Kimberly Clark (<a href="http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylt=ApC_oPwu32LAxDY34izYctakfqU5/SIG=117j8nsdh/**http%3A//finance.yahoo.com/q%3Fs=kmb" target="_blank">KMB</a>). Of these, Kimberly Clark would be the better choice for investors. The company maintains a <a href="http://www.kchealthcare.com/pandemicflu/PPE%20Demand%20Calculator.asp" target="_blank">Web site</a> for preparedness in case of a pandemic.</span></p><p>Still another beneficiary is Quidel (QDEL), which makes rapid diagnostic kits for the flu.</p><p>More speculative stocks, which have already doubled and then pulled back a bit, include two makers of flu vaccines that are still being tested, Novavax (NVAX) and Biocryst (BCRX).</p><p>If the market holds to previous patterns, the stocks that plummeted the most will regain ground over the next few days, while those that have climbed the highest and fastest will pull back, leaving those that have made only modest or even negligible gains, like Gilead and Kimberly Clark, in the best position.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Disclosure: Long GILD&nbsp;</p>]]>
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