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  • Walter Energy: The Analysis And Probability Of A Bankruptcy
       • Tue, Jul. 8 ACI, ANR, BHP 17 Comments


    • Walter Energy's over levered capital structure is becoming too constrained to maintain its rapidly rising interest payments.
    • A global supply glut of Met coal will likely take years rather than months to reverse course.
    • High yield market is already betting on a restructuring, interest payments alone in the last four quarters have risen from $53 million to roughly $80 million per quarter.
    • Debt service payments for fiscal year 2014 will reach an all time high at approximately 23% of revenues.
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside
       • Thu, Apr. 17 AMZN, BBY, ODP 45 Comments


    • The poor quarter was negatively skewed by difficult comps against a 53rd week, unfavorable foreign exchange rates, and 109 store closures.
    • The market systematically underestimates the speed at which industry consolidation will take place between Office Depot and Office Max.
    • The street under appreciates Staples market leading position, as well as its growing e-commerce business.
    • Private equity is likely a potential suitor in a non-levered high free cash flow retailer with significant hidden value in its online business.
    • Business trades at around 10x LTM earnings, with significant free cash flow levers starting in 2015.
  • SolarCity: The Most Egregiously Overvalued Stock In The Nasdaq?
    Mon, Jan. 27 SCTY 84 Comments
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Jan. 6 AEO, ANF, M 57 Comments
  • SolarCity: A Black Box Of Mystery
    Editors' Pick • Oct. 17, 2013 RGSE, SPWR, TSLA 80 Comments
  • Buffett And Klarman Not Buying, Time To Sell?
    Sep. 30, 2013 GLD, SAND, XCO 28 Comments
  • Gold Fever Catches A Cold
    Sep. 17, 2013 GDX, GDXJ, GLD 45 Comments
  • Staples: A Cigar Butt Worth Picking Up On A 20% Correction
    Sep. 10, 2013 ODP, OMX, SPLS 8 Comments
  • Natural Gas: A 10 Year Bull Market In The Making?
    Aug. 14, 2013 UNG 33 Comments
  • GSV Capital: How To Play The Twitter Revolution Into A 100% Gain
    Aug. 6, 2013 FB, LNKD, GSVC 26 Comments
  • Dell: A Low Risk Arbitrage Play With 15%+ Upside
    Jul. 31, 2013 HPQ, DELL 14 Comments
  • Gold: Picking Up Pennies In Front Of A Steamroller
    Jul. 25, 2013 GDXJ, NUGT, SAND 153 Comments
  • Sandstorm Gold: An Uphill Battle
    Jul. 22, 2013 GDXJ, SAND 98 Comments
  • Exco Resources: On The Offensive After A 2-Year Hiatus
    Jul. 18, 2013 ECA, SD, XCO 5 Comments
  • ExOne: The Quiet Before The Storm
       • Jul. 10, 2013 XONE 49 Comments
  • Encana: A Potential Low-Risk Double With A 4.7% Yield
    Jun. 27, 2013 CHK, XOM, ECA 67 Comments
  • Tesla Motors: A Short Sellers Dream Stock?
    Jun. 12, 2013 TSLA 284 Comments
  • SolarCity: The Tech Bubble All Over Again?
    Jun. 9, 2013 GRPN, TSLA, ZNGA 75 Comments
  • EXCO Resources, Inc., A Long-Term Play On Natural Gas
    Feb. 12, 2013 XCO 17 Comments