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  • Walter Energy: The Analysis And Probability Of A Bankruptcy [View article]
    Sirvasq,

    You said, "Paying down credit lines is what the author says can't be done."

    To the contrary, Walter cannot generate free cash flow from operations to pay down debt. Today's announcement was just flipping debt, nothing more.
    Jul 8 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ExOne (XONE) - Who Is Tu Guihua And Mega Fame Holdings? [View instapost]
    Something certainly smells with this 13D, sounds like an orchestrated short squeeze attempt. Too bad everyone knows this company is garbage, 2 quarters of sequentially declining revenue and still trades above 15x sales. All smoke and mirrors in our view.
    Jul 7 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Strikes A Victory For Free Speech [View article]
    Congrats, Eli. Great news, especially for the short sellers publishing research. We have yet to see a libel case go through in NY state punishing an author for opinions on matters exposing mgmt. hype and fraud.
    Jul 7 03:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla needs a big month to meet its targets, analyst says [View news story]
    Yikes! A ton of hopes and dreams on this stock, investors trying to get rich quick without doing the necessary homework on the fundamentals. Usually spells disaster when investors don't realize the sky high multiples they are paying for absolutely no return on capital, just a business plan (Giga Fac, Model X, etc etc...) and a lot of hype.

    Not sure when this one cracks, but when it does the stampede out will be scary for anyone holding the stock...
    Jun 23 07:43 PM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position [View article]
    Usually when there is smoke there is fire... We are on board with you Whitney. Also liked your presentation at NYSSA last month w/ Adrangi. We've structured our shorts in a similar manner with many small positions spread out over multiple sectors.
    Jun 11 02:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Doral's trouble means gains for other Puerto Rico lenders [View news story]
    We think $FBP is worth about $9-10 just on a stabilization in Puerto Rico and $DRL going by the wayside (industry consolidation). Tangible book ~$8.00 (and growing) when you include the deferred tax assets. Once FBP pays down the small preferreds they will start paying a dividend once again which may be a catalyst in the next 12-18 months, along with the street realizing NPLs are declinning.
    Jun 3 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: Our Top 2014 Pick For A Unique Short Covering Rally [View article]
    While this was a tactical shorter-term investment, we have to apologize to everyone who followed us on this one. Results last night from the inept management team didn't inspire any confidence, while we sold most of our position back in late Jan/Feb. We kept a sliver of hope, a tiny amount of stock in the hopes of an eventual recovery, which appears distant now. Every business ARO has is under attack it seems, and what shocked us more is the significant declines in the online business. The only real hope in our opinion is a Sycamore bail out (along w/ mgmt. overhaul), Sycamore has a significant investment here, so they likely don't want a complete goose egg. Anything from here on out is speculative at best(financing terms not even complete), too many unknown variables in our opinion.
    May 23 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside [View article]
    Itchy,

    The online business is about half total sales, it consists of Quill.com, Staples.com, and the contract business. Listen to the most recent conference call to get more details. They don't specifically break down individual metrics, but you can back into most of them given the assumptions provided by mgmt.
    May 12 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Encana: A Potential Low-Risk Double With A 4.7% Yield [View article]
    ECA new 52-week high for those that actually held it. Still think there is quite a bit of upside in this one, asset sales are helping bridge the former disconnect b/w book value (marked to market) and the stock price.
    Apr 29 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside [View article]
    Pinyon Pine,

    For the sake of having a relatively succinct article we didn't really discuss the progress made within the international division. Europe improved quite drastically, which makes up 74% of the international sales segment. As the economic recovery in Europe continues to play out, combined with a more streamlined cost structure, the int'l segment should continue to see better comps. The strength in the euro relative to the dollar should also improve results a couple of percentage points in Q1.
    Apr 22 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside [View article]
    Just curious how you would get to $7.50-8.00, can you quantify this?

    Staples has been consistently profitable over long periods of time, unlike Best Buy, which we feel faces more competitive threats than Staples. The dollar store argument doesn't really hold weight in our opinion, given they drastically over expanded since 2009 and are now closing stores (again reducing supply)...i.e. Family Dollar closing 370 stores.
    Apr 17 11:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside [View article]
    Staples has been working on its pricing model, and now has pricing software (online) that is benchmarked with Amazon (and others) pricing.

    We are not saying that there are no issues with Staples, but we think the positives outweigh the negatives substantially at this price. Sams, Wal-Mart, and Costco have been competitors to Staples for over 20+ years, Staples continues to exist because of convenience and the prices are very competitive and even lower than some big box retailers. Not to mention the millions of customers who are enrolled in the rewards program which gives an additional 5% discount.

    This certainly is a space with its challenges, but we think there are significant value creation levers management can pull in the not to distant future. Consolidation usually benefits sectors/industries over time as supply and demand imbalances are stabilized over time. If you look at the airline industry 3-4 years ago, before consolidation and then compare it to today, there are substantial differences.

    At the current share price we think management could lever up the balance sheet with low cost debt and buy-back $1 billion plus in stock. Over just the past 4 years SPLS has bought back $1.93 billion in stock, which would equate to ~25% return at today's prices (excluding dividends).
    Apr 17 10:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Staples: Industry Consolidation Leading To 50% Upside [View article]
    Agree Moon,

    While it appears the USPS workers union will continue to protest (due to non-union labor) postal stores within Staples, it seems like a natural progression from the inefficient government model. This would help boost store traffic and naturally combines goods and services needed by postal customers.
    Apr 17 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg's Digital Business Alone Justifies Current Share Price [View article]
    We just don't see the end game here on how CHGG eventually reaches sustainable profitability. The competition in this space is incredibly aggressive, and it is unlikely that CHGG will ever have the proper scale to compete with the big boys. Wish you luck, but this stock is just pure speculation in my mind.
    Apr 15 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chegg's Digital Business Alone Justifies Current Share Price [View article]
    We see fair value for Chegg around $1 per share. A slight premium to the cash on the balance sheet, Chegg almost ran out of funding already once before, just speak with Rosensweig, he'll mention this openly. We think at the current SG&A run rate, which will likely be over $100m this year (plus aggressive R&D spend $50m+), that they will struggle to maintain adequate funding going into early 2015. We think after the insider lock-up of 66,728,265 additional shares become eligible for sale on 05/12, management will likely try to do a secondary.
    Apr 15 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
422 Comments
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