I began my investment career as a portfolio manager in 1972 with Western Bancorporation in Los Angeles (name changed to First Interstate Bancorp, now part of Wells Fargo). After nine years in banking, I became a Vice-President Institutional Bond Sales as Merrill Lynch in San Francisco, with the major West Coast banks as clients. Later at L.F. Rothschild. I then returned to the 'buy' side in 1987 - not long before the crash as an institutional cash management portfolio manager with BAIMCO. In 1990, I joined Wentworth, Hauser, and Violich as cash manager and later as bond manager and co-head of Fixed Income, leaving in 2004 to start my own firm, TBD Capital LLC, which I operated for 10 years, as a registered investment advisor. In 2014, I terminated my RIA registration to focus on consulting and creating a new blog on wine, traderbillonwine.com, published bi-monthly, which will hopefully lead to a book. For the past ten years, over 1,600 posts, I have published my blog daily at traderbill.com, which I will continue doing when events have interest to me.
Forty year career in finance and executive management beginning on Coopers & Lybrand audit staff (CPA) culminating with twenty-six years as CEO of publicly-held companies. Prior to that and after leaving C&L served in CFO and COO capacities, all in publicly-held companies. Was an EDGAR Pilot Program filer in 1984, one of eighteen if my memory is correct.
I participated in the creation of financial derivatives, beginning with the introduction of Eurodollar and Standard and Poors futures at the CME, and including the secondary market trading of OTC swaps. I have established and managed trading desks in these instruments and managed MHT Futures, Inc., one of the first bank subsidiaries to clear futures. Today I teach and write about the need for market-based innovation in these seriously flawed markets.
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
Some information about my investing:
* I have been investing my own money (and managing it myself) for over two decades now. I would never let anyone else manage my money and neither should you.
* My portfolio is structured as a "High Yield Strategic Income" portfolio. The portfolio has evolved over the past 20 years. I invest now only in Closed End Funds. I am now at the point in my investing journey that I look for maximum income generation. All distributions are reinvested.
* I make every attempt to tell my fellow investors what they "need" to hear, not what Wall Street and the main stream media think you "want" to hear.
* "Past performance definitely does not guarantee future results". With that said it amazes me that for most investors of dividend stocks, the best they can do is invest in all the same exact S&P company stocks by largest market cap.
* Educate yourself about what people really earn in this country:
Then ask yourself: "How is it possible most people the US can "appear" to be so wealthy?"
It is a starting point to cut through the deception that is the main stream media and Wall Street salespeople.
Also: Everyone no matter what age should watch "Money as Debt"
A personal note:
Our family are active charitable donors to
* The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
* St. Jude's Children's Hospital
* Ronald McDonald House
These institutions provide valuable services to children and veterans in need. I know this from personal experience. If you are able, please donate a little something every month to each of these organizations. Thank you.
I am an independent financial consultant and a writer. I teach at the University of Paris, written on derivatives and corporate governance as an academic and for TheStreet.Com.
I am a retired investor with market experience going back to the 1960s. I was a software engineer for 42 years, and currently do some part-time consulting, which lets me contribute to a Roth IRA. I am not an accountant and not a financial professional.
My wife and I have established a set of guiding principles for our investment life:
• Change is the only constant in life. Everything in this plan is subject to change.
• Never touch your principal. Wealth is built and maintained by not spending it. Wealth is the primary buffer between ourselves and blind chance.
• Exploit folly, do not participate in it (thank you, Chuck Carnevale). Do not follow the crowd, which is more often than not wrong.
• A portfolio is like a bar of soap – the more you touch it, the smaller it becomes. Do not be a trader.
• Own assets, avoid liabilities. Assets generate income. Liabilities generate expenses.
Based on these principles, we have established two investing goals: 1) sufficient current income with a comfortable buffer, and 2) increasing future income to maintain our buffer.
Our primary investing goal is to generate sufficient current income to cover that part of our living expenses not covered by pensions, with a comfortable buffer. We are retired and depend on investment income to meet a significant minority of our living expenses.
As we age and get closer to the end, current income becomes ever more valuable, and future income becomes ever less valuable. This reality informs all of our investing decisions. However, we know that inflation will cause our income needs to rise, so we also plan for increased future income, which is our second investing goal.
To meet our current and future income needs, we rely on 2 Social Security pensions, 1 private pension, a consulting retainer, income generated by investments, and fully paid up long term care insurance.
It is common to allocate a retirement investment portfolio with some percentage in stocks and the balance in fixed income, such as 60/40. We look upon our pension income as the equivalent of fixed income, with the added benefit that Social Security is indexed to the CPI. In the past we owned no fixed income and had no plans to do so in the future. The future has arrived and we have discovered baby bonds and preferred stocks, and we like the higher current income we can get from these investments. We have therefore started to redirect some of our investment capital into these investments, and as a result our investment income is now greater than it would have been otherwise.
We categorize dividends and interest as income, and capital gains as return of capital, not income. Therefore, our goals are to be met from dividends and interest only.
Investment income currently meets our primary investing goal. We invest in a blend of mostly medium yield (3%-6%) stocks with medium dividend growth, a few high yield (>6%) instruments with no dividend growth, low yield (<3%) stocks and funds with high dividend growth. and fixed income securities with yields in the range of 5%-8% with no growth.
We expect our medium yield and low yield stocks and funds to provide the income growth needed for the future, our second investing goal.
We currently own common stocks, preferred stocks, and bonds. Our portfolio requires regular attention to avoid possible dividend cuts and deletions. As we age, our mental faculties are in decline, and we will become increasingly less able to perform portfolio monitoring intelligently. There will come a time when we will need to use some form of income oriented index ETFs to carry the income generating burden.
We want to behave like landlords and collect rents, but without the risks and demands of owning real estate directly. Dividends and interest are our rental income, and as once-removed landlords we expect to own real estate investment trusts (REITs).
We want our non REIT income to be generated by long-lived, steady companies that provide products and services that we all need regardless of the economy, and thus can be relied upon to provide steady, and steadily growing, income. This requirement points primarily at consumer staples stocks. We own some of the best consumer staples stocks, such as mighty MO, and plan to own one or more ETFs that concentrate on the consumer staples sector of the S&P 500. Our preferred shares are almost all in the REIT sector.
• Some of my investing history
During much of my working years I used technical analysis (TA) to invest in individual stocks (I was an early fan of Joseph Granville and I bought an Apple II in 1980 because Granville brought out OBV software for the Apple at that time), and I speculated with short selling and commodity trading. Later I invested in stock mutual funds and ETFs for total return, with inconsistent results, and no comprehensive plan. Being a software engineer in a lead position left little time or energy for serious investing skills development. In 2005 I had pretty much given up on getting market beating results, and felt that I was getting too old and too close to retirement to continue swinging for the fences, so I decided to buy a variable annuity that guaranteed a minimum return of 6% per year, compounded, with the upside limited only by the performance of the mutual funds offered for investment. I decided to let the insurance company bear the market risk for me. I also had a 401k plan at work to which I contributed the maximum and got the company match. A year or so before 2008 I used a retirement investing projection tool provided by Fidelity, which said the worst returns I could expect in retirement were positive but not spectacular, and the best were hard to believe. At that time I was invested in mutual funds and ETFs through my 401k and the variable annuity and had not directly owned stocks since shortly before the start of the great bull market in 1982 (Granville famously missed the whole thing). I thought, with a bit of skepticism but not much, that I was set. We all know what happened in 2008-09. That experience put me off Monte Carlo simulations and Modern Portfolio Theory for life.
When I retired I converted my 401k to a rollover IRA brokerage account and invested in ETFs. I thought I was being appropriately conservative but also ready to capture capital gains by investing in VIG and VCSH.
Then I found Seeking Alpha, and then - thank my lucky stars - David Van Knapp, and the DGI light went on. I had spent most of my adult life thinking I was smarter than most people by relying on TA, and then later letting the insurance company assume market risk. I remember learning about the 200 DMA when I was in my 20s, which is a long time ago, and thinking how revolutionary this idea was and how I should be able to use it to my advantage. Fortunately for me and my family, I also was pretty good at software engineering, so I had a reasonable retirement nest egg accumulated when the time came. With the concepts and methodology of dividend growth investing, I now have sleep well at night investments that just keep on churning out increasing income, something that could never be said about using TA.
I started with DGI too late in life to commit totally to low yield, high growth stocks. I hope to capture the double compounding of DRiP investing with that part of my portfolio that is low yield, high growth.
We have recently (Nov 2014) rolled over all of the variable annuities into brokerage accounts. We now believe that we can get sufficient income from our dividend investing strategy, and we want to retain ownership of the annuity capital.
• Tools and Teachers
Tools I use include the CCC list, F.A.S.T. Graphs, Morningstar Premium, BigCharts, the EDGAR web site, longrundata.com, and Excel. I get ideas from the many informative articles by (among others) the following (in no particular order): Chuck Carnevale, Brad Thomas, Ron Hiram, David Van Knapp, David Fish, Robert Allan Schwartz, Dividend Growth Investor, Dividends4Life, David Crosetti, Tim McAleenan Jr., Reel Ken, Bret Jensen, Alan Brochstein, Chowder, Dane Bowler, Bob Wells, BDC Buzz, Scott Kennedy, Bill Maurer, Darren McCammon, Richard Shaw, Bruce Miller. Favorite commentators who are not yet authors include Elliot Miller, Paul Leibowitz, mbkelly75, surfgeezer.
Useful shortcuts to dividend stock valuation are the Tweed Factor and the chowder rule. Like F.A.S.T. Graphs, 'a tool to think with', these are 'rules to think with'.
Tweed Factor: fair P/E = yield + 5 year dividend growth rate
chowder rule: current yield + 5 year DGR >= 12%; 8% for utilities, MLPs, REITs
The best investment advice outside of Seeking Alpha has been 'The Intelligent Investor', ‘Securities Analysis’, and 'The Single Best Investment'.
• Some historical portfolio stuff
My DGI portfolio was started on 2011/4/20 with CTL, which I have since sold. It was a beginner's mistake. Subsequent mistakes were MLPs, and to a lesser extent, mortgage REITs. I did not allow for any circumstance that could cause WTI to fall as far and as fast as it has, so I lost money on MLPs. The prolonged flattening of the yield curve, plus the persistent markdown from NAV for the mortgage REITs, has made these unappealing as long term investments. Now I keep my distance from anything that is dependent on commodity pricing, and I invest very little in the carry trade. A glaring mistake was selling JNJ when it languished for several years.
• Some ongoing portfolio stuff
The target dividend growth rate for our entire portfolio is 5%.
I use yield on cost to allocate our investments so that each position in aggregate generates approximately the same amount of income. I learned the basic method for doing this from a comment on a SA article. SA is a wonderful resource! I have published an SA Instablog that describes the method: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/902946-be-here-now/4581516-portfolio-allocation-for-equal-income-from-each-position-using-excel
• Current portfolio:
equity REIT: CCP, DFT, DLR, EPR, HTA, LTC, NSA, O, OHI, STAG, VTR, WPC
consumer staples: GIS, MO, PEP, PM
financial: GBDC, GSBD, HTGC, MAIN, TCPC
baby bonds: HTGX, NEWTL, TCCA, TPVZ
preferred: AGNCB, AHT-F, DFT-C, GAB-G, GGZ-A, HT-D, MNR-C, VER-F
consumer staples: RHS, XLP
equity REIT: ESS, EXR, SKT
Technology: ADP, MSFT
Industrial: APD, MMM, RTN
baby bond: ARU, MSCA, TCCB, VTRB
preferred: DLR-G, STAG-C
I enjoy spending my free time researching stock ideas and publishing ideas when I have a solid investment thesis. I enjoy writing about technology stocks as well as obscure "unsexy" businesses that are often overlooked by the larger market. I employ a growth at a reasonable price approach to select the majority of stocks I own.
I worked as a stock analyst for two years at a boutique firm where I learned the framework that I now use to invest in my personal account. I earned a dual degree in Business and Economics, which gave me a foundation I currently use to perform due diligence. I love hearing from readers and always try to answer questions or clarify when possible.
Please note that the article that you are reading here was originally written on my blog and is republished in Seeking Alpha and other forums. Consequently, I neither track nor respond to comments here. I am sorry! ================ Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
My wife and I are retired and have been living comfortably on our investments for some years. I spend part of my time managing those investments. My investment approach is based on my macro views and I trade infrequently to adjust our portfolio to changes in asset prices and my perception of the macro environment. My background is in science and engineering rather than in finance or money management, but the analytic skills and skeptical viewpoint that served well in my career have proved to be very helpful in my investment decision making. Frequently, the common wisdom regarding the macro environment is both unwise and disturbingly common. This provides a potential advantage to those willing to think independently. But at the same time, when one bets against the prevailing view, caution is of utmost importance, since the market may fail to recognize the truth for an unpredictably long time. Thus, a barbell investment approach has been found to be essential, with enough hedge assets to ride out the recognition delay.
Graduated in May of 2008 with an undergraduate double major in Finance and Banking. After graduating, I started auditing Community Banks and Financial Institutions for a local auditing firm. I graduated with my MBA in Banking and Financial Institutions in August 2012 (while working full time). In July 2013, I acquired the CRCM (Certified Regulatory Compliance Manager) certification and in January 2014 promoted to Audit Manager of the Banking department for the same company I started to work for in 2008.
In 2009 I started investing. First it was any industry and any opportunity, things went ok (at best). I then started researching publicly traded Community Banks. I soon found out that undervalued Community Banks is my wheelhouse for investing. My first investment in a Virgina Community Bank returned 110% over 12 months. The rest is history. I have since expanded into oil, REITs, BDCs and retail with limited success. I have recently started to gravitate back to Community Banks due mostly to the realization that that's where I have made the most money and have the best success.
All messages are welcomed! I get on SA often and enjoy reading all kinds of articles.
I have been investing since the late '70s and managing individuals money since 1985. Over those 25+ years our composite average has compounded at 13.7% per annum, some 3.5 percentage points better than the S&P 500. Three percentage points might not seem like much, but over 25 years it doubles your money. I am currently not accepting new clients, and this in no way constitutes an advertisement.
Individual investor for 30 years, now Full-Time. MD degree. Trade daily. Long stocks only, and call options, mainly LEAPs, which I consider to be long term investments. I am a patient investor. My core is biopharma, with a few biotechs: Together, these comprise about 75% of my portfolio, and include some large core biopharmas, as well as aggressive emerging biopharmas, which I call my "Baby Bios." Of these, DEPO has sprouted wings. Others have been active of late. There is also eclectic diversification, with some retail, clothing, tech, software.. I trade daily, and look for newly listed options. [Please note that there is no check box for "Healthcare" in the "Your Interests" section].
Richard Moheban (aka Retired Aviator) earned a BBA in Finance, Investment & Banking from a national top ten (public) business school—the University of Wisconsin at Madison. He then went on to earn a BFA (with Honors) in 1992. After that, however, his one year of working in the corporate world was enough for him to realize that it was not his cup of tea. He decided he needed more freedom and daily variety than any Finance position could offer, so he went to work for himself.
Determined to somehow achieve financial independence without the grind, he worked as many as four part-time jobs concurrently to obtain seed cash for investing. He devoted much of his non-working time to studying investments and "real world" Economics (as opposed to the academic variety), refining several workable theories along the way. For years he plowed every spare nickel into investing. Using only his relatively modest sources of income as an investing base, over time he was able to multiply his savings and thus achieve his dream of retiring by his mid-forties in 2009. Today he enjoys pursuing a variety of recreational interests, researching, writing, and has several ideas in the works for new books. He has one book published to date.
I enjoy analyzing the financial health of companies and pointing out areas the market is either not recognizing or ignoring. A long time investor, I put my money where my mouth is. That's why I'm passionate about my positions. I trumpet companies I believe in and back my articles up with data and graphs.
I write The Winters Report, an independent equity research publication on US banks. Contact me at WintersReport@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter (@HarvardWinters). Previously I worked as a financial services investment banker, at Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and various middle-market investment banks. I received an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in 1993.
I've been in mutual funds & small baskets of stocks for 25 years, much more disciplined than good, but happy to say I'm still solvent and growing the nest egg. Trying to engineer a soft landing for the retirement portfolio by focusing more on dividend stalwarts, sans the heart-stopping swoons of the past.
I am an individual investor who has invested in common stocks since 1985. I have a strong value bias in my stock selections. While the lion's share of my portfolio consists of what I call "core holdings", I do like to spice up my portfolio with what I call "opportunity stocks". While some of these simply do not work out, the occasional ten-bagger will normally come from a low priced stock that survived some type of market turmoil.
I am engaged in trading Asian emerging market currencies and formerly the accountant for and a staff member of a local non profit business engaged in community service.
Please understand, the views I express are my own and are not intended to influence any positions other than my own and for our business. I have a degree in business management with an emphasis in economics.
Formerly enlisted in USAF Air Defense, both ballistic missile and aerospace defense, including joint service counter narcotics surveillance and deployments under imminent danger.
I was a partner in a small business, now a retired saver being punished by the central bank.
I am Seeking Alpha's CEO and Editor-in-Chief. My love for the stock markets goes back to when I was a kid. Who else remembers combing through the stock quotes at the back of the business section of your local paper?
I joined Seeking Alpha in 2006 and launched Wall Street Breakfast and Market Currents, our top-of-class short-form breaking news for investors. In 2010 I became editor-in-chief and in 2015 I became CEO.
I live in Jerusalem with my wife and a bunch of exceptional kids. Most days, you'll find me making the commute from Jerusalem to Raanana. Occasionally I get to work from my home-office, from where I keep an eye on the beautiful Judean Hills.
To contact me, send me a direct message, or email me at email@example.com.
David Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.
At the podium, Stockman’s expertise and experience cannot be matched, and he has a reputation for zesty financial straight talk. Defying right- and left-wing boxes, his latest book catalogues both the corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. Stockman discusses the forces that have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America’s financial system to morph into an unstable, bubble-prone gambling arena that undermines capitalist prosperity and showers speculators with vast windfall gains.
Stockman’s career in Washington began in 1970, when he served as a special assistant to U.S. Representative, John Anderson of Illinois. From 1972 to 1975, he was executive director of the U.S. House of Representatives Republican Conference. Stockman was elected as a Michigan Congressman in 1976 and held the position until his resignation in January 1981.
He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, serving from 1981 until August 1985. Stockman was the youngest cabinet member in the 20th century. Although only in his early 30s, Stockman became well known to the public during this time concerning the role of the federal government in American society.
After resigning from his position as Director of the OMB, Stockman wrote a best-selling book, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed (1986). The book was Stockman’s frontline report of the miscalculations, manipulations, and political intrigues that led to the failure of the Reagan Revolution. A major publishing event and New York Times bestseller in its day, The Triumph of Politics is still startlingly relevant to the conduct of Washington politics today.
After leaving government, Stockman joined Wall Street investment bank Salomon Bros. He later became one of the original partners at New York-based private equity firm, The Blackstone Group. Stockman left Blackstone in 1999 to start his own private equity fund based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
In his newest New York Times best-seller, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America (2013), Stockman lays out how the U.S. has devolved from a free market economy into one fatally deformed by Washington’s endless fiscal largesse, K-street lobbies and Fed sponsored bailouts and printing press money.
Stockman was born in Ft. Hood, Texas. He received his B.A. from Michigan State University and pursued graduate studies at Harvard Divinity School.
He lives in Greenwich, Connecticut, with his wife Jennifer Blei Stockman. They have two daughters, Rachel and Victoria.
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
The author has worked in the transportation profession for over eight years of which the previous three have been strictly focused on goods movement and freight. Transports, by James Sands includes extensive research and analysis of publicly traded companies in the U.S. This includes direct comparative peer review among multiple transport industries, and macro and industry key performance indicators, KPIs.
The author has successfully managed a self-developed equity-based portfolio of U.S. public companies prior to the development of Transports, by James Sands. This included an average return of 13% per year over the previous three years for the portfolio, as well as numerous detailed articles covering multiple sectors and industries. Transports by James Sands includes two current portfolios under management.
Transports, by James Sands will provide investors with access to exclusive research and data analysis stemming from the tools generated to evaluate public freight companies. The ultimate goal is to define investment options and recommendations for a wide variety of investors. All subscribers of Seeking Alpha are encouraged to review the Marketplace offering by James Sands for additional information. Feel free to contact the author with any inquiries through the Seeking Alpha message platform.
DISCLAIMER: It should be noted that while the author is providing stock analysis and recommendations based on this analysis, any information disseminated by articles, stock talks, messages, or public chats represent the opinions of the author. The author is not an investment professional, and as such, all readers and subscribers should perform their independent due diligence and/or consult with an investment professional prior to making investment decisions.
A retired scientist, I have long had an interest in investing. In addition to stocks, I currently trade options actively for our own accounts. I read extensively and use my technical background to evaluate technology companies. I am an optimist about the U.S. market and economy, believing that the power of innovation and entrepreneurship in this great country is currently being overshadowed in the public's mind by recency bias, i.e. the memory of the financial crisis is too strong.
I am the Chief of Operations at Wolfram Solutions, the consulting arm of the large privately held software company, Wolfram Research. I manage teams of programmers developing custom applications for business and, government, applying advanced analytic methods to practical challenges. I played a major role in the development of many of the financial features of Mathematica and Wolfram|Alpha. I have been at Wolfram for over 15 years. My academic background is in the social sciences and analytic methods in the social sciences, including finance, economics, statistics, modeling, simulation, and operations research. I studied at the University of Chicago, both undergrad and grad. I am also an individual investor with 30 years experience, mostly using mutual funds and fundamental analysis, plus specific investments in the financial sector. My contributions on Seeking Alpha focus on the financial sector and monetary economics, and what analysis of those areas can tell us about other macro trends. I also discuss portfolio theory, formal methods in finance, modeling and simulation of financial prices and economic time series, government statistical releases, financial regulation, and monetary policy.