Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
* I have been investing my own money (and managing it myself) for over two decades now. I would never let anyone else manage my money and neither should you.
* My portfolio is structured as a "High Yield Strategic Income" portfolio. The portfolio has evolved over the past 20 years. I invest now only in Closed End Funds. I am now at the point in my investing journey that I look for maximum income generation. All distributions are reinvested.
* I make every attempt to tell my fellow investors what they "need" to hear, not what Wall Street and the main stream media think you "want" to hear.
* "Past performance definitely does not guarantee future results". With that said it amazes me that for most investors of dividend stocks, the best they can do is invest in all the same exact S&P company stocks by largest market cap.
* Educate yourself about what people really earn in this country:
Then ask yourself: "How is it possible most people the US can "appear" to be so wealthy?"
It is a starting point to cut through the deception that is the main stream media and Wall Street salespeople.
Also: Everyone no matter what age should watch "Money as Debt"Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8
A personal note:
Our family are active charitable donors to
* The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
* St. Jude's Children's Hospital
* Ronald McDonald House
These institutions provide valuable services to children and veterans in need. I know this from personal experience. If you are able, please donate a little something every month to each of these organizations. Thank you.
I am a retired investor with market experience going back to the 1960s. I was a software
engineer for 42 years, and currently do some part-time consulting, which lets
me contribute to a Roth IRA. I am not an accountant and not a financial
My wife and I
have established a set of guiding principles for our investment life:
• Change is the
only constant in life. Everything in this plan is subject to change.
• Never touch
your principal. Wealth is built and maintained by not spending it. Wealth is
the primary buffer between ourselves and blind chance.
• Exploit folly,
do not participate in it (thank you, Chuck Carnevale). Do not follow the crowd,
which is more often than not wrong.
• A portfolio is
like a bar of soap – the more you touch it, the smaller it becomes. Do not be a
• Own assets,
avoid liabilities. Assets generate income. Liabilities generate expenses.
Based on these
principles, we have established two investing goals: 1) sufficient current
income with a comfortable buffer, and 2) increasing future income to maintain
investing goal is to generate sufficient current income to cover that part of
our living expenses not covered by pensions, with a comfortable buffer. We are
retired and depend on investment income to meet a significant minority of our
As we age and get
closer to the end, current income becomes ever more valuable, and future income
becomes ever less valuable. This reality informs all of our investing
decisions. However, we know that inflation will cause our income needs to rise,
so we also plan for increased future income, which is our second investing goal.
To meet our
current and future income needs, we rely on 2 Social Security pensions, 1
private pension, income generated by investments, and fully paid up long term
It is common to
allocate a retirement investment portfolio with some percentage in stocks and
the balance in fixed income, such as 60/40. We look upon our pension income as
the equivalent of fixed income, with the added benefit that Social Security is
indexed to the CPI. We therefore own no fixed income and have no plans to do so
in the future.
dividends and interest as income, and capital gains as return of capital, not
income. Therefore, our goals are to be met from dividends and interest only.
currently meets our primary investing goal. We invest in a blend of mostly
medium yield (3%-6%) stocks with medium dividend growth, a few high yield
(>6%) instruments with no dividend growth, and low yield (<3%) stocks and
funds with high dividend growth.
We expect our medium
yield and low yield stocks and funds to provide the income growth needed for
the future, or second investing goal.
We currently own
only stocks and several ETNs. Our portfolio requires regular attention to avoid
possible dividend cuts and deletions. As we age, our mental faculties are in
decline, and we will become increasingly less able to perform portfolio
monitoring intelligently. There will come a time when we will need to use some
form of income oriented index ETFs to carry the income generating burden.
We want to behave
like landlords and collect rents, but without the risks and demands of owning
real estate directly. Dividends and interest are our rental income, and as
once-removed landlords we expect to own real estate investment trusts (REITs).
We want our non
REIT income to be generated by long-lived, steady companies that provide
products and services that we all need regardless of the economy, and thus can
be relied upon to provide steady, and steadily growing, income. This
requirement points primarily at consumer staples stocks. We own some of the
best consumer staples stocks, such as mighty MO, and plan to own one or more
ETFs that concentrate on the consumer staples sector of the S&P 500.
• Some of my
During much of my
working years I used technical analysis (TA) to invest in individual stocks (I
was an early fan of Joseph Granville and I bought an Apple II in 1980 because
Granville brought out OBV software for the Apple at that time), and I
speculated with short selling and commodity trading. Later I invested in stock
mutual funds and ETFs for total return, with inconsistent results, and no
comprehensive plan. Being a software engineer in a lead position left little
time or energy for serious investing skills development. In 2005 I had pretty
much given up on getting market beating results, and felt that I was getting
too old and too close to retirement to continue swinging for the fences, so I
decided to buy a variable annuity that guaranteed a minimum return of 6% per
year, compounded, with the upside limited only by the performance of the mutual
funds offered for investment. I decided to let the insurance company bear the
market risk for me. I also had a 401k plan at work to which I contributed the
maximum and got the company match. A year or so before 2008 I used a retirement
investing projection tool provided by Fidelity, which said the worst returns I
could expect in retirement were positive but not spectacular, and the best were
hard to believe. At that time I was invested in mutual funds and ETFs through
my 401k and the variable annuity and had not directly owned stocks since
shortly before the start of the great bull market in 1982 (Granville famously
missed the whole thing). I thought, with a bit of skepticism but not much, that
I was set. We all know what happened in 2008-09. That experience put me off
Monte Carlo simulations and Modern Portfolio Theory for life.
When I retired I
converted my 401k to a rollover IRA brokerage account and invested in ETFs. I
thought I was being appropriately conservative but also ready to capture
capital gains by investing in VIG and VCSH.
Then I found
Seeking Alpha, and then - thank my lucky stars - David Van Knapp, and the DGI
light went on. I had spent most of my adult life thinking I was smarter than
most people by relying on TA, and then later letting the insurance company
assume market risk. I remember learning about the 200 DMA when I was in my 20s,
which is a long time ago, and thinking how revolutionary this idea was and how
I should be able to use it to my advantage. Fortunately for me and my family, I
also was pretty good at software engineering, so I had a reasonable retirement
nest egg accumulated when the time came. With the concepts and methodology of
dividend growth investing, I now have sleep well at night investments that just
keep on churning out increasing income, something that could never be said
about using TA.
I started with
DGI too late in life to commit totally to low yield, high growth stocks. I hope
to capture the double compounding of DRiP investing with that part of my portfolio
that is low yield, high growth.
We have recently
(Nov 2014) rolled over all of the variable annuities into brokerage accounts.
We now believe that we can get sufficient income from our dividend investing
strategy, and we want to retain ownership of the annuity capital.
• Tools and
Tools I use include
the CCC list, F.A.S.T. Graphs, Morningstar Premium, BigCharts, the EDGAR web
site, longrundata.com, and Excel. I get ideas from the many informative
articles by (among others) the following (in no particular order): Chuck
Carnevale, Brad Thomas, Ron Hiram, David Van Knapp, David Fish, Robert Allan
Schwartz, Dividend Growth Investor, Dividends4Life, David Crosetti, Tim
McAleenan Jr., Reel Ken, Bret Jensen, Alan Brochstein, Chowder, Dane Bowler,
Philip Trinder, Bob Wells, BDC Buzz, Scott Kennedy, Bill Maurer, Darren
McCammon, Richard Shaw, Bruce Miller. Favorite commentators who are not yet
authors include Elliot Miller, Paul Leibowitz, mbkelly75, surfgeezer.
to dividend stock valuation are the Tweed Factor and the chowder rule. Like
F.A.S.T. Graphs, 'a tool to think with', these are 'rules to think with'.
fair P/E = yield + 5 year dividend growth rate
current yield + 5 year DGR >= 12%; 8% for utilities, MLPs, REITs
investment advice outside of Seeking Alpha has been 'The Intelligent Investor',
‘Securities Analysis’, and 'The Single Best Investment'.
• Some historical
My DGI portfolio
was started on 2011/4/20 with CTL, which I have since sold. It was a beginner's
mistake. Subsequent mistakes were MLPs, and to a lesser extent, mortgage REITs.
I did not allow for any circumstance that could cause WTI to fall as far and as
fast as it has, so I lost money on MLPs. The prolonged flattening of the yield
curve, plus the persistent markdown from NAV for the mortgage REITs, has made
these unappealing as long term investments. Now I keep my distance from
anything that is dependent on commodity pricing, and I invest very little in
the carry trade. A glaring mistake was selling JNJ when it languished for
• Some ongoing
dividend growth rate for our entire portfolio is 5%.
I use yield on
cost to allocate our investments so that each position in aggregate generates
approximately the same amount of income. I learned the basic method for doing
this from a comment on a SA article. SA is a wonderful resource! I have
published an SA Instablog that describes the method: http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/902946-be-here-now/4581516-portfolio-allocation-for-equal-income-from-each-position-using-excel
equity REIT: CCP,
DLR, EPR, HTA, LTC, O, OHI, STAG, VTR, WPC
GIS, MO, PEP, PM
financial: GBDC, GSBD,
HTGC, MAIN, TCPC
ETN: DVYL, HDLV
equity REIT: ESS,
I worked as a stock analyst for two years at a boutique firm where I learned the framework that I now use to invest in my personal account. I earned a dual degree in Business and Economics, which gave me a foundation I currently use to perform due diligence. I love hearing from readers and always try to answer questions or clarify when possible.
Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He teaches the corporate finance and equity valuation courses in the MBA program. He received his MBA and Ph.D from the University of California at Los Angeles. His research interests lie in valuation, portfolio management and applied corporate finance.
He has written three books on equity valuation (Damodaran on Valuation, Investment Valuation, The Dark Side of Valuation) and two on corporate finance (Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice, Applied Corporate Finance: A User’s Manual). He has co-edited a book on investment management with Peter Bernstein (Investment Management) and has a book on investment philosophies (Investment Philosophies). His newest book on portfolio management is titled Investment Fables and was released in 2004. His latest book is on the relationship between risk and value, and takes a big picture view of how businesses should deal with risk, and was published in 2007.
He was a visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley, from 1984 to 1986, where he received the Earl Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award in 1985. He has been at NYU since 1986, received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award (awarded by the graduating class) in 1988, 1991, 1992, 1999, 2001, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and was the youngest winner of the University-wide Distinguished Teaching Award (in 1990). He was profiled in Business Week as one of the top twelve business school professors in the United States in 1994.
Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
In 2009 I started investing. First it was any industry and any opportunity, things went ok (at best). I then started researching publicly traded Community Banks. I soon found out that undervalued Community Banks is my wheelhouse for investing. My first investment in a Virgina Community Bank returned 110% over 12 months. The rest is history. I have since expanded into oil, REITs, BDCs and retail with limited success. I have recently started to gravitate back to Community Banks due mostly to the realization that that's where I have made the most money and have the best success.
All messages are welcomed! I get on SA often and enjoy reading all kinds of articles.
Long stocks only, and call options, mainly LEAPs, which I consider to be long term investments. I am a patient investor. My core is biopharma, with a few biotechs: Together, these comprise about 75% of my portfolio, and include some large core biopharmas, as well as aggressive emerging biopharmas, which I call my "Baby Bios." Of these, DEPO has sprouted wings. Others have been active of late. There is also eclectic diversification, with some retail, clothing, tech, software.. I trade daily, and look for newly listed options.
[Please note that there is no check box for "Healthcare" in the "Your Interests" section].
Determined to somehow achieve financial independence without the grind, he worked as many as four part-time jobs concurrently to obtain seed cash for investing. He devoted much of his non-working time to studying investments and "real world" Economics (as opposed to the academic variety), refining several workable theories along the way. For years he plowed every spare nickel into investing. Using only his relatively modest sources of income as an investing base, over time he was able to multiply his savings and thus achieve his dream of retiring by his mid-forties in 2009. Today he enjoys pursuing a variety of recreational interests, researching, writing, and has several ideas in the works for new books. He has one book published to date.
Previously I worked as a financial services investment banker, at Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and various middle-market investment banks. I received an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business in 1993.
Please understand, the views I express are my own and are not intended to influence any positions other than my own and for our business. I have a degree in business management with an emphasis in economics.
Formerly enlisted in USAF Air Defense, both ballistic missile and aerospace defense, including joint service counter narcotics surveillance and deployments under imminent danger.
I was a partner in a small business, now a retired saver being punished by the central bank.
My love for the stock markets goes back to when I was a kid. Who else remembers combing through the stock quotes at the back of the business section of your local paper?
I joined Seeking Alpha in 2006 and launched Wall Street Breakfast and Market Currents, our top-of-class short-form breaking news for investors.
In 2010 I became editor-in-chief and in 2015 I became CEO.
I live in Jerusalem with my wife and a bunch of exceptional kids. Most days, you'll find me making the commute from Jerusalem to Raanana. Occasionally I get to work from my home-office, from where I keep one eye on the beautiful Judean Hills.
To contact me, send me a direct message, or email me: firstname.lastname@example.org.
At the podium, Stockman’s expertise and experience cannot be matched, and he has a reputation for zesty financial straight talk. Defying right- and left-wing boxes, his latest book catalogues both the corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. Stockman discusses the forces that have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America’s financial system to morph into an unstable, bubble-prone gambling arena that undermines capitalist prosperity and showers speculators with vast windfall gains.
Stockman’s career in Washington began in 1970, when he served as a special assistant to U.S. Representative, John Anderson of Illinois. From 1972 to 1975, he was executive director of the U.S. House of Representatives Republican Conference. Stockman was elected as a Michigan Congressman in 1976 and held the position until his resignation in January 1981.
He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, serving from 1981 until August 1985. Stockman was the youngest cabinet member in the 20th century. Although only in his early 30s, Stockman became well known to the public during this time concerning the role of the federal government in American society.
After resigning from his position as Director of the OMB, Stockman wrote a best-selling book, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed (1986). The book was Stockman’s frontline report of the miscalculations, manipulations, and political intrigues that led to the failure of the Reagan Revolution. A major publishing event and New York Times bestseller in its day, The Triumph of Politics is still startlingly relevant to the conduct of Washington politics today.
After leaving government, Stockman joined Wall Street investment bank Salomon Bros. He later became one of the original partners at New York-based private equity firm, The Blackstone Group. Stockman left Blackstone in 1999 to start his own private equity fund based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
In his newest New York Times best-seller, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America (2013), Stockman lays out how the U.S. has devolved from a free market economy into one fatally deformed by Washington’s endless fiscal largesse, K-street lobbies and Fed sponsored bailouts and printing press money.
Stockman was born in Ft. Hood, Texas. He received his B.A. from Michigan State University and pursued graduate studies at Harvard Divinity School.
He lives in Greenwich, Connecticut, with his wife Jennifer Blei Stockman. They have two daughters, Rachel and Victoria.
Commodity broker 79-81
I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81
My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp.
See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity)
The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string").
As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”:
Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions.
The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude.
President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes".
"It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity"
"Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits).
This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct.
flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672)
If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm
Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm »
the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend
flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04
Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH:
"Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely."
Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus:
jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top
feb..... 0.50.... 0.10
mar.... 0.54.... 0.08
apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top
may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall
Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May.
Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)"
flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM
The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day).
POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM |
The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006.
10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom
11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18
1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06
2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10
3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04
4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02
5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04
6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05
7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10
8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05
9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13
10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession
11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession
12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession
Trajectory as predicted:
12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5
"We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger"
June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher).
20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply
This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
The author has successfully managed a self-developed equity-based portfolio of U.S. public companies prior to the development of A Focus on Freight, by James Sands. This included an average return of 13% per year over the previous three years for the portfolio, as well as numerous detailed articles covering multiple sectors and industries. Nearly four out of every ten articles achieved "Must Read" status. The management of this portfolio has been supplanted by the development of A Focus on Freight, by James Sands.
A Focus on Freight, by James Sands will provide investors with access to exclusive research and data analysis stemming from the tools generated to evaluate public freight companies, with the ultimate goal of defining investment options and recommendations for a wide variety of investors. All subscribers of Seeking Alpha are encouraged to review the Marketplace offering by James Sands for additional information. Feel free to contact the author with any inquiries through the Seeking Alpha message platform.
DISCLAIMER: It should be noted that while the author is providing stock analysis and recommendations based on this analysis, any information disseminated by articles, stock talks, messages, or public chats represent the opinions of the author. The author is not an investment professional, and as such, all readers and subscribers should perform their independent due diligence and/or consult with an investment professional prior to making investment decisions.
My academic background is in the social sciences and analytic methods in the social sciences, including finance, economics, statistics, modeling, simulation, and operations research. I studied at the University of Chicago, both undergrad and grad. I am also an individual investor with 30 years experience, mostly using mutual funds and fundamental analysis, plus specific investments in the financial sector.
My contributions on Seeking Alpha focus on the financial sector and monetary economics, and what analysis of those areas can tell us about other macro trends. I also discuss portfolio theory, formal methods in finance, modeling and simulation of financial prices and economic time series, government statistical releases, financial regulation, and monetary policy.