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Celestial Hedge  

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  • Sequential Brands Reports Strong 4th Quarter, Shares Remain Undervalued [View article]
    What do you see as your exit price?
    Feb 26, 2015. 12:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insider Buys And Expanding Sales Funnel At RadiSys [View article]
    Why do you think the company is worth 3x sales in 2017? That screams "overvalued" to me
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amcon Distribution: Playing The Long Game To Value Creation [View article]
    You lost a lot of my interest at "73% of their revenue comes from the sale of cigarettes."
    Feb 19, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tuesday Morning: A Retail Turnaround Priced For Perfection, Up To 40% Downside [View article]
    I covered this stock very in-depth this summer, and was looking at it from a short standpoint with many of the same theses you outline in this article. However, my peak valuation for the company based on comparable multiples and peak earnings was around $22. I agree that there is not much downside to the bear case, but there is no way in hell this stock is worth $11.50. Not enough upside to the bear case for me.
    Feb 18, 2015. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Long: Frost's Pershing Gold Poised For A Significant Upside Move [View article]
    Okay, thank you for the response, that makes me feel better
    Feb 18, 2015. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Long: Frost's Pershing Gold Poised For A Significant Upside Move [View article]
    WSA, when you cite the performance of other stocks as evidence for your long thesis on this one, you lose credibility in my book. Unless you are going to detail every single one of Frost's investments, how can we know you're not simply picking out the most fitting ones Frost has invested in?
    Feb 11, 2015. 07:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Made An Error In Switching To FitLife [View article]
    You could be right. I'm long FTLF but if you don't look for why your thesis is wrong you're gonna get burned.

    They should report in the next week, we'll see if more information or conflicting information shows up.
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Made An Error In Switching To FitLife [View article]
    I'm pretty sure. If you look in past filings, the franchise stores are completely separate from the corporate stores, which is why the argument "but they only have one distribution channel" doesn't hold weight. They have separate contracts with each individual store, and each franchisee can choose to order their products or not.

    If this is no longer the way it works now that would be significant. How do we figure this out?
    Feb 11, 2015. 01:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Made An Error In Switching To FitLife [View article]
    I'm not sure. I'll look into it.

    Let's assume they do transition completely to the GNC corporate distribution platform. This would not affect pricing pressure or payment terms for the individual franchisee stores. They still negotiate separately with FTLF.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I Made An Error In Switching To FitLife [View article]
    Paulo,

    The way I have read their reports, the company is ADDING the distribution through the GNC corporate stores, not replacing the franchise store distribution. This would make their gross margin a weighted average of distribution through franchise stores as well as distribution through the corporate stores, not the entire gross margin.
    Feb 11, 2015. 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Brands Has Lower Risk With Possibly Similar Upside To MusclePharm [View article]
    It's called SHOCK'D (http://bit.ly/1764e1n)

    And it has up to 60 servings in the container, so a little over a dollar per use isn't too bad.
    Feb 9, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FitLife Brands Has Lower Risk With Possibly Similar Upside To MusclePharm [View article]
    As part of my due diligence I actually ordered one of FTLF's products, and have been using it, and like it. It was expensive (~$75), but I like the product. I am writing an article on FTLF soon. Long FTLF
    Feb 9, 2015. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmer Mac: Super Profitable But Cheap Due To GSE Aversion [View article]
    Great article, thanks for the heads up. What do you see AGM doing with its earnings, increasing the dividend?
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kroger Looks Like A Sell [View article]
    Can you expand on this? I haven't heard about (or seen) Kroger as anything other than a grocery store..
    Feb 6, 2015. 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials Is A Lucrative Investment Opportunity In The Making [View article]
    Sam I agree that at some point this is probably a long, but I'm not trying to catch a falling knife
    Feb 5, 2015. 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
238 Comments
82 Likes