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Charles A. Smith  

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  • Illegal Products Could Spell Big Trouble At Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    Keynes said markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Classic case here.
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint Is Slaying The Oligopoly: Verizon And AT&T Should Be Concerned [View article]
    Only one thing matters for S, which you never mentioned: How long will SoftBank be willing to fund losses?
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon in no rush to buy more spectrum [View news story]
    "Incapacity to mount such reveals a lot about Sprints condition - survival or acquisition?"

    Softbank seemingly has a lot more dry powder to invest, no? Why aren't they?
    Feb 17, 2015. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Headwaters Sending Better Results Downstream [View article]
    Very good summary, as always. I noted this past week that the construction materials sub sector was one of the best performers in the entire market. Martin Marietta Materials and Vulcan Materials were up 23% and 7%, respectively. Maybe some of this will rub off on our little fly ash company!
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Synchrony Earnings Beat, Benefiting From Low Gas Prices And Strong US Economy [View article]

    Is there any chance SYF could bid for the Costco account just lost by Amex? Seems like a huge stretch for them, but who knows.
    Feb 13, 2015. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Honeywell Appears To Have A Lot To Offer [View article]
    Re potential acquisitions, HON could "tuck in" IIVI for $1.5 billion or so. Some nice fits in performance materials for aerospace and other manufacturing applications. Argument against is that HON might not be able to exploit the full depth of IIVI's manufacturing expertise, but it would further diversify their PMT segment.
    Jan 31, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Inc.'s Gutsy Move Into The Bakken [View article]
    "It really isn't about whether well lives are short or long. It's about what it costs to drill a "step-out well" in a proven basin. It doesn't cost as much to drill a shallow well if you know the oil is there and you can drill directionally off the same pads. I gather the underlying reserves are huge. It could be the production will just stabilize until prices rise and more drilling rigs are used. No one seems to be analyzing future production but KMI must have."

    Bingo! Analysis is right on.
    Jan 25, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Buys Harold Hamm's Hiland Partners - Should Continental Have Benefited? [View article]
    "How long will these fields produce?"

    Seems to me the connections to Cushing (and thru to Houston & the GOM) are what matters, particularly given the dynamic nature of shale exploitation techniques. Just look at how much more productive each rig is today vs. 20 (or even 5!) years ago due to multiple and longer laterals from the same well pad, refracs, etc.. As both the geology and drilling techniques continue to improve, Bakken will be productive for quite a long time. That said, RK paid a full price.
    Jan 25, 2015. 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Cash That Check While You Can [View article]
    Ha! No conspiracy here. The fact is that the entire solar industry would not exist without $ billions in taxpayer subsidies, which happen to be about to expire, one of the reasons firms like SCTY are pushing so hard to get business done ahead of the phaseout. Also, their business model is at least partly built on NPVs estimated with price escalators/discount rates lower than those applied to the existing utility competition. If APS and others can make the case that their prices will not rise at rates anywhere near 4% annually, and then follow through on it, let them. It's called competition. The simple point that PaulTD was making is that there is much confusion on the part of potential retail leaseholders with regard to the real long term value of these leases. SCTY has made their case. There is another side to the story, even if it has to be told by the Koch brothers.
    Jan 24, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Cash That Check While You Can [View article]
    PaulTD, thanks for the most useful comment on the whole thread.
    Jan 24, 2015. 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Cash That Check While You Can [View article]
    Here are 650 "scientists" who disagree:
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Buys Harold Hamm's Hiland Partners - Should Continental Have Benefited? [View article]
    Josh, in either case (HND or CLR), if you think its a real "risk" (actually an opportunity), then buy more shares! What is so complicated here? As I said above, watch what management does and make your best judgement. If Goldberg or Blackstone are selling LQ at $19 or $20 today, but begin to buy at $8 or $10 a year from now after the business has crashed, take the hint and place your bets accordingly. The risk is ALWAYS in the price.
    Jan 23, 2015. 02:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Buys Harold Hamm's Hiland Partners - Should Continental Have Benefited? [View article]
    Lots of great questions, including:

    "If Continental's situation deteriorated further, could Continental also be taken private for a similarly high return?"

    But there are a couple morals to this story. First, the conflicts in question were disclosed (and if they weren't, rational investors should have assumed they, and many others, existed). Second, always watch what the people in control DO rather than what they SAY. Hamm had the guts to put up $124 million in the throes of the 2009 crash (Do you remember how that felt?), and was rewarded handsomely for it. With Continental, divorce issues notwithstanding, he may do it again. Good for him! As an investor in public companies, I should have the smarts to be riding his coattails rather than on the other side of the deal.
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Bringing Efficiency To The Bakken [View article]
    I would generally agree. There are risks for KMI (particularly given how levered it is already) that the new capital they're putting in lies "fallow" for a while, particularly if oil and gas prices fall further. Cheap storage for the producers with none of the upside.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan: Earnings Replete With Boots, Spider Webs, Cats And Dogs And Silver Linings [View article]
    "...oil and natty gas in a worst case at 50 and 3.20 over the next 5 years is hard to swallow..."

    If the Saudis even hint at a change in strategy, oil will be at $60 in seconds.
    Jan 23, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment