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Charles Fitzgerald

 
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  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Have you recomputed IBM's performance lately?
    Oct 17, 2013. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Yes, I would say it makes my point completely when Vietnam Mobile Telecom Services is the best cloud customer IBM can come up with...

    What is a "cloud implementation"? I bet an awful lot of these are really dubious.

    At least in the web era, IBM could go to a company like eBay and sell them DB2, even if they couldn't get them to run it on a mainframe. Now what does IBM have to sell that any leading edge company would want?
    Jun 2, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    I guess their future is assured then.
    May 31, 2013. 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    So when is IBM going to actually compete in cloud and how? Afraid it takes some products.

    Why don't any large cloud providers use IBM? IBM's collapsing x86 server is a big canary in coal mine here.

    My point is that while the IT director may not get fired, their company will go out of business because you can't be competitive using IBM. Show me the companies that are world beaters or staving off disruption using IBM?
    May 31, 2013. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    There really are only two examples in history of major tech company turnarounds - Apple and IBM under Gerstner. Beyond that, if you miss a transition, you're pretty much toast.

    We do know what IBM is investing in because we can look at their product line. That is what I think the financially oriented miss and is the fundamental point I am making. IBM's financial performance is ultimately a function of their product portfolio. And if the product portfolio misses the mark, their financial performance will suffer.

    Look at x86 servers. They're sucking wind yet that is where the market is. They tried to divest the business to Lenovo, but failed. So IBM is either in a situation where they are losing share or want out of the category altogether, but x86 servers are the fundamental hardware building block for enterprise and cloud computing. Not the museum piece mainframes and RISC boxes that IBM sells to their existing customers who are dying off with every passing day. Maybe IBM is "skating to where the puck will be" but where is that? Where is the leapfrog offering from IBM? They are losing share today, so shouldn't they be pulling some rabbit out of their hat today?

    Show me a product where IBM has an innovative, market-leading, well-respected offering?
    May 29, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    I don't suggest past performance is luck. I suggest that the financial cookie jar is empty and they haven't invested to renew their technology product portfolio. You can invest your money in new products or give it to shareholders. The latter to the exclusion of the former eventually catches up with you. Just because IBM has had products it could sell in the past doesn't mean it will in the future. Tech is all about change. When the world changes and you don't, it is brutal. The CFO is usually the last guy to know.
    May 28, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    What is your faith based on? Their product roadmap for cloud or mobile? Their innovation track record over the last decade? How about some specifics justifying your faith? Or is it just a hope that past performance will continue in the future? That behavior is the exception rather than the rule in technology, so why do you believe IBM will be lucky again?
    May 24, 2013. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    I'm not saying they did anything wrong - when companies miss, they are happy to miss big. This can take the form of delaying revenue and/or increasing the size of a kitchen sink writeoff. This is how the real world works.
    May 24, 2013. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Are you saying cloud and mobile are not big markets today?

    What are the fruits of IBM's research in the 21st century? Where has it turned into material new businesses? Yes they spend lots and gets lots of patents, but they don't seem to turn it into business.

    They have been buying smaller companies because they can't innovate themselves.
    May 24, 2013. 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    You are placing a lot of faith in IBM's ability to invest in the right things to be successful for the next techno era. You'd think we'd be able to discern those investments, but they're hard to see. In fact. they're missing the boat on what look like the big trends and aren't offering up any alternative. But maybe blind faith is a better way to invest.
    May 22, 2013. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Well, I think this is Warren's first tech investment, so we'll see how it goes for him (and you). Looking forward to reviewing IBM's results in the coming years.
    May 22, 2013. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    I'm not making a stock call for this quarter, though if you shorted on my original post you would have picked up over 20 points. I am making a call on IBM's ability to survive and thrive through the next technology era.
    May 20, 2013. 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Warren has historically said he doesn't understand technology. He said when he bought IBM he liked their financial roadmap. I don't believe Warren is buying IBM because he has a deep understanding how they will navigate technology inflection points.

    Do you think Bill is telling Warren to buy IBM? As a former Microsoft employee, I am pretty skeptical on this front.

    I'm not saying sell IBM and buy PG. I am saying don't buy any tech stock for a 50 year time horizon and if you do have that time horizon, a company like PG is a much better choice.

    I got rid of the trivial position I had in IBM today. Have not gone short - not usually my strategy. I'd rather invest in the guys who are eating IBM's lunch.
    May 20, 2013. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    My point is that companies like Google and Facebook are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in new datacenters for new workloads. NONE of these new workloads are on the mainframe, despite all the IBM propaganda about how great the mainframe is for any new workload you care to mention. IBM does a great job extracting tons of money of existing workloads, but those workloads are slowly moving and there is no growth in new workloads.
    May 20, 2013. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: How Much Longer Do The Good Times Last? [View article]
    Warren is also the first to admit he knows nothing about technology.

    My point is technology is a tough business because of fundamental change. If you went back 50 years ago, there are not many tech companies still alive from that era. IBM is the exception, not the rule. If you go forward 50 years, PG is much more likely to be around than any technology company that exists today.
    May 20, 2013. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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