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Charles Goldblum, CFA

 
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  • Eagle Rock Energy: A Top 2014 Pick With ~30% Upside And A 10% Yield [View article]
    You're right on EROC, but for the wrong reasons.
    Simply, after the sale of the midstream business to RGP, they'll be a pure-play upstream MLP with low (close to 1x Debt/EBITDA) leverage. As they re-leverage by buying more producing assets, they should be able to raise their distribution to ~80c/year from 60c now. Put a 10% yield on that and it could be a $8/stock.
    The only potential buyers for EROC are upstream MLPs as they are trading too expensively for an E&P to acquire.
    We own it too... Go team!
    Jan 23 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (KMP) CEO Discusses Q2 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    fewer expected shares outstanding thanks to fewer warrants available to convert into shares....
    Jul 18 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MPLX (MPLX -2.4%) is downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BAML, which recognizes the MLP's peer-leading distribution growth, supportive general partner, dowry of drop-downs and fee-based cash flows, but sees units largely pricing in this growth given its current yield of 2.9%. [View news story]
    Paraphrased from the Merrill note:
    - Downgraded from a Buy with a $32 target to a Neutral with a $40 target !!!
    - It's a drop down story, but we haven't included the dropdowns in our valuation...
    Now I don't think the stock is worth $100/share, but this Merrill downgrade is puzzling, to say the least....
    Jun 12 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Brinks Company at Bargain-Basement Price [View article]
    Why do you exclude taxes from FCF calculation? I understand that an acquirer that might use more leverage might not pay taxes and use an EBITDA multiple, but FCF this isn't.

    I get to a 11+% FCF yield based on maintenance capex of $95MM based on the midpoint of 2010 guidance range.

    How do you look at competitive/operating concerns in EMEA? What's the likelihood of Venezuela business disappearing altogether?

    Thanks for your response.
    Apr 7 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Mad Money - When Obama Stumbles, Stocks Soar (9/20/09) [View article]
    Re CRM raising guidance:
    EPS guidance raised by 1c/share, stock-based compensation guidance cut by 3c/share - hard to explain considering they haven't cut headcount.
    Aug 21 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Salesforce Delivers Strong Second Quarter, Raises Outlook [View article]
    Is 34x FCF the right price for a company whose bookings aren't expected to grow this year?
    Furthermore, now that their tax loss carryforwards have been used, their cash flow is unlikely to rise next year either.
    Doesn't a growth company need to grow?
    We've seen this move before (see Siebel, i2, etc.), it doesn't end well.
    Aug 21 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review of Current Losing Positions: NZT, ACAS, SKM, GE [View article]
    TKTK -
    For good order's sake, I do not own, nor am I short, ACAS. None of my clients have a position in ACAS.

    I merely am pointing out aggressive accounting tactics used by ACAS and others. Will the stock go up or down, I don't know. I advise steering clear of operators such as these. I'm not an expert in ACAS, but paraphrasing Warren Buffett, in investing one need not swing at every pitch. For the reasons stated here and above, I'd advise passing.

    Regarding your inflammatory remarks about losing people money, you can find my firm's name through my blog. On my company website I have quarterly newsletters showing verified performance of a composite of client accounts. I submit that my client recommendations have not lost "1000's of people...lots of money".

    You're entitled to your opinion. In investing, it's important to do your homework first.
    Jul 10 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review of Current Losing Positions: NZT, ACAS, SKM, GE [View article]
    Sorry about republishing this, but here's my info - so I'm not anonymous.

    I, and my clients, own SKM. You'll be fine here, if not excited. Double-digit free cash flow yield is safe, risk is only what company will do with this $. Sell-off of Helio is a plus.
    Sell ACAS. Bad accounting. Bad valuations of its investments. Will continue to fall. For the script on this one, read David Einhorn's book, "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time"
    Jul 9 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Review of Current Losing Positions: NZT, ACAS, SKM, GE [View article]
    I, and my clients, own SKM. You'll be fine here, if not excited. Double-digit free cash flow yield is safe, risk is only what company will do with this $. Sell-off of Helio is a plus.
    Sell ACAS. Bad accounting. Bad valuations of its investments. Will continue to fall. For the script on this one, read David Einhorn's book, "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time"
    Jul 9 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9 Comments
4 Likes