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Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA  

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  • Is Gold's Golden Era Over? [View article]

    For once, I actually agree with you concerning Shadow Stats. I've met Mr. Williams, and he is a decent and very intelligent guy, but he does seem a bit ideologically committed to seeing inflation under every rock. You could argue just as well--as Gary Shilling does in his most recent book--that inflation is actually overstated due to hedonic adjustments that are too conservative, the lack of accounting for substitution effects, and questionable index weightings.

    It is fashionable--particularly among goldbugs--to mistrust any statistics that come from the government. Fair enough. But they shouldn't be quite so eager to then immediately accept ANY alternative numbers put out by anti-government ideologues because they happen to like their politics. View all numbers--not just ones from the government--with a healthy bit of skepticism.

    Jan 31, 2011. 02:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing the Right Dividend ETF [View article]

    There is nothing wrong with preferred stock, but it is a very different kind of security than regular common stock. It behaves more like bonds; barring a move in interest rates, you generally have no opportunity for capital appreciation. The ETFs highlighted in the article are designed to provide both income and real, after-inflation growth.

    Jan 31, 2011. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing the Right Dividend ETF [View article]

    Good call on Telefonica. That's actually an open recommendation in my newsletter and one of my favorite stocks at the moment. GREAT backdoor way to get access to Latin America and other emerging markets.

    Jan 31, 2011. 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing the Right Dividend ETF [View article]

    Excellent 1980s pop culture reference. I might steal that for a future article ;)

    I agree with you though. If you're building an income portfolio, then you're going to want exposure to other sectors too, including the ones you mentioned and others such as MLPs as well. 8% may be a bit ambitious in this rate environment without accepting more volatility than would be appropriate for a conservative investor, but your point is well taken.

    Jan 31, 2011. 09:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold's Golden Era Over? [View article]
    Yes, you goldbugs have it ALL figured out. When you join the money management profession, "They" teach you the secret handshake and take you into the secret underground room where they do the secret Skull and Bones initiation ceremony. We then all renounce our U.S. citizenship and simultaneously swear allegiance to Ben Bernanke, Satan, and "the international banking establishment."

    "They," you know, "Them."

    Do you people never get tired of sounding like Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory"?
    Jan 31, 2011. 12:16 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold's Golden Era Over? [View article]

    Silver and precious metals do indeed hold their value IF, like any other asset, they are purchased at a reasonable price. Pity the poor fool who bought during the last bubble when the Hunt brothers tried to corner it, and pity the fools buying today after it's already had a fantastic decade-long run.

    And I might add, a dime invested in the S&P 500 in 1964 would be worth a lot more today than a dime's weight of silver. Just sayin'...

    Jan 31, 2011. 12:07 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing the Right Dividend ETF [View article]
    @ Maverick707,

    Thanks for that catch. Somehow, VYM slipped my attention.

    @ Econdoc,

    VYM and DVY are based on different underlying indexes, and there is a decent difference in their yields.

    I do agree that VIG is the best option for GROWTH, though I still favor DVY for current income. Really, they are all pretty good, and a case could be made for any of them. I'm really quite thrilled to see dividends making such a comeback in recent years. It's about time!

    Jan 31, 2011. 12:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Choosing the Right Dividend ETF [View article]

    I actually agree with you. If you have a large enough portfolio and you intend to hold for a long time period, the trading commissions will be negligible and there is no reason to pay the extra layer of fees that comes with any mutual fund or ETF.

    That said, looking at the underlying holdings of these ETFs can be a good screening tool for stock selection.

    Jan 30, 2011. 11:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold's Golden Era Over? [View article]

    What you are saying is that silver's real return over that period was absolutely zero and that its real return over the next 20 years will be zero. That doesn't sound like a great investment to me.

    Jan 30, 2011. 11:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2011 Update: Another Lost Decade for Stocks - Are You Prepared? [View article]
    Good comment, bmcpic. My biggest problem with the "secular bear markets always last _____ number of years" argument is that there are too few time periods to reach a meaningful conclusion. The rule of thumb is that you generally need 30 or more observations to make meaningful statistical conclusions; the author uses 3.

    Hey, he COULD be right. Stranger things have happened. But I agree that his logic is faulty and his arguments uncompelling.
    Jan 27, 2011. 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Kathy Lien's 'The Little Book of Currency Trading' [View article]
    Yikes. I've bought several of the "Little Book" series over the years (Greenblatt's Little Book that Beats the Market has a prominent place on my shelf), but is currency trading really a good idea for novice investors? Even professional currency traders tend to burn out after a couple years. Seems a little irresponsible to me.
    Jan 22, 2011. 10:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beyond BRICs: The New ABCs of Global Investing [View article]
    Good article. I've been following the same basic strategy myself: "Emerging Markets Through the Back Door." Your portfolio is conspicuously absent of consumer stocks, however. You might consider Unilever and Nestle--two great companies with massive exposure to the emerging market consumer.
    Jan 22, 2011. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkcell: Perfect Way to Trade the Rise of the Emerging Market Consumer [View article]

    Unfortunately, at least in the short term, macro does matter. Over the longer term, value plays perform as expected. But can get ugly at times like this, when something completely outside of TKC's control--in this case the Turkish central bank's bumbling of the country's inflation rate--cause the price to take a hit. Alas, it's just part of the game.

    Jan 20, 2011. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: A Bad Investment and Getting Worse Part I [View article]
    I recommend the Arabian Nights. Great collection of fairy tales to read before bed. Oh wait, this was a rhetorical question?

    Jan 19, 2011. 10:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Turkcell: Perfect Way to Trade the Rise of the Emerging Market Consumer [View article]
    Anything Turkish is getting slammed because of the country's bumbled attempts to contain inflation. I'm not recommending to sell at this time, because I view volatility like this a "cost of doing business" in emerging markets, and I still consider the stock to be cheap. Still, you have to do what is right for you and your risk tolerance.
    Jan 19, 2011. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment