The iPhone Is Good But It Won't Kill The BlackBerry [View article]
Good points, Adam, and I would add that the Blackberry is still "cool" in many growing emerging markets. The revulsion that American tech enthusiasts seem to have for RIMM doesn't exist elsewhere. I find the negativity towards this stock a little puzzling, honestly.
The yield is a bit of a moving target with ADRs because in addition to the usual changes in stock price you also have currency moves.
That said, looking at this a little closer, I think you might be right. The dividends for the trailing 12 months were $2.63. At today's price of $83.70, that would give a yield of 3.14%. It looks like Yahoo Finance is miscalculating the yield by using only the most recent dividend payment (with a lot of European companies, they make one large annual dividend payment and one smaller mid-year payment).
The Case For Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
PCs aren't on the decline, per se. They're being forced to make room at the table with tablets, smart phones, etc. But few people will find a tablet to be a suitable replacement for a full-featured laptop or desktop. Just try writing a lengthy article on one...
Weekly Stocks Dropped From And Added To Greenblatt's Magic Formula Portfolio [View article]
One point you should mention: Part of Greenblatt's Magic Formula is holding each stock for a year. So, if a company moves in and out of the list, an investor following the strategy should not repeatedly buy and sell it.
The Case For Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
Counterpoint, I hear you and, yes, these are the choices the market has given us.
For U.S. equities, I like a mixture of high current dividend--DVY--and high dividend growth--VIG, or other ETFs that use the Dividend Achievers or Dividend Aritstocrats approach.
If you're picking individual stocks, I like "old" tech giants like MSFT and INTC, consumer products companies with a global footprint, and telecom. You can use the holdings of VIG as a screener to start your stock picking process.
Nicely done, Matt. Very good, very thorough article. The beauty of buying a stock of Microsoft's quality at current prices is that you can be wide off the mark in many of your assumptions and still have an enormous margin of safety. There is a lot of wiggle room here.
As I said in my own recent article on the company, none of MSFT's new initiatives HAVE to work for MSFT to be a bargain. Even if revenue growth is flat, the stock is priced to deliver market-beating returns through dividends and buybacks alone. Any success on the mobile and social media fronts can be considered a bonus.
And if we're early, so be it. Reinvest the GROWING dividends and wait for the market to appreciate what should be obvious.
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
Augustom,
I just read your bio, and I have to say that I'm a little jealous that you're taking a sabbatical in Spain. The crisis (and Spain's anti-business political climate) notwithstanding, it's a lovely country to spend time in. Madrid is my favorite European capital, hands down.
Back to business, remember that Brazil has some rather questionable labor laws as well that cause Brazilian labor to be uncompetitive among emerging markets. The result of laws like these is that a lot of entrepreneurial activity drifts into the informal "off the books" economy, and the formal economy tends to get dominated by a handfull of large companies big enough to navigate the red tape. In this respect, Spain and Brazil are unfortunately quite similar.
Ultimately, you make money in this business by buying profitable companies at good prices. While the macro picture remains awful, prices are low enough among many Spanish and Brazilian stocks to make them worth the risk.
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
Augustom,
Spain's banks do concern me, and I wish that they didn't make up such a large part of Spain's index. That said, Spain's banks are global and a significant amount of their loan book is from outside the country. Thus far it should be noted that the crisis surrounding Spain centers around its sovereign debts, not its banks. Of course, a government bond market collapse would almost certainly lead to a banking crisis as well.
To me, at current prices we are being more than compensated for the risk of meltdown--which I do NOT think will happen. But, as with all investments, you should only invest if you are comfortable with the risk being taken.
And yes, I'm actually a big fan of some Brazilian stocks and have written favorably about Ambev in the past. My only concern about Brazil--and this is not necessarily a reason to avoid the country but more just something to keep in the back of your head--is the risk of currency devaluation. The real has risen to the point that it is killing domestic industry, and the government wants to see it fall.
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
Dreadlordnaf,
Indeed, Spain has some of the most rigid labor laws in Europe, which is why youth unemployment was a problem even before the crisis. I suspect most of Telefonica's headcount reductions in Spain going forward will be due to attrition, i.e. older workers retiring and not being replaced.
Telefonica's growth story is Latin America, where the company already gets 40% of its revenues. It's home market is in slow decline as more households "cut the cord," drop home phone service, and go "cell phone only." But Latin America should be a growth market for a long time to come.
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
Adjusted Returns,
You are correct; Taleb would rigorously reject the notion of a "safe company." By his logic, you can't "prove" that something is safe, only disprove. He's a bit of an ideologue like that, and strictly speaking he is correct.
Like I said, most people can't invest like he does (or even THINK like he does, for that matter.) But you can build a portfolio that will weather shocks well. Perhaps not black swan "proof," but at least black swan resistant. And yes, buy insurance when it's cheap.
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
WMARKW,
Good comment, and you are correct. Buffett doesn't buy index funds. He knows the companies he buys inside out. And buying a company is different than buying a stock, though stock investors would be well served by going through the same thought processes as buyers of businesses. Thanks for the comment.
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
Nassim Taleb has a unique trading style that wouldn't be appropriate for most investors. To oversimplify a little, he essentially buys insurance when its cheap, losing a little money day after day or even year after year, until one day...BOOM. He gets a huge payoff at one time if the event he insured against ever actually happens. That's how he walked out of the 1987 Crash a wealthy man.
Still, even while his trading style is not appropriate for most investors, his basic insights can be applied.
You want investments that are "black swan proof." In the case of stocks, ALL stocks are subject to wild price swings due to black swan events. But conservatively-financed companies with stable demand for their products at least have business models that are (mostly) black swan proof. If the price takes a temporary nose dive, you're still getting your dividend check while you wait for it to recover.
(Of course, "business model black swans", like a new disruptive technology, happen every day, but that is a different story for a different article.)
The Day After: Stay Away From Gold, Treasuries; Buy Solid Blue-Chip Stocks [View article]
Acttang,
I actually agree with you on Japan; it seems that betting against Japanese bonds is a rite of passage that every macro hedge fund trader has to go through, and like fraternity hazing it doesn't end well.
They will eventually be "right" in that, at some point, Japan will finally blow up and its yields will soar to junk levels. But these things can plod along in equlibrium for a long time before that happens, and none of us are likely to be the ONE guy who times it right.
John Mauldin's Endgame gives a good analysis of the scenarios facing Japan. Mauldin is also smart enough to be vague on the specific timing.
The iPhone Is Good But It Won't Kill The BlackBerry [View article]
Diageo: Into The Wilds Of Africa [View article]
That said, looking at this a little closer, I think you might be right. The dividends for the trailing 12 months were $2.63. At today's price of $83.70, that would give a yield of 3.14%. It looks like Yahoo Finance is miscalculating the yield by using only the most recent dividend payment (with a lot of European companies, they make one large annual dividend payment and one smaller mid-year payment).
Good catch!.
The Case For Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
The Case For Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
CLS
Weekly Stocks Dropped From And Added To Greenblatt's Magic Formula Portfolio [View article]
CLS
The Case For Dividend Growth Stocks [View article]
For U.S. equities, I like a mixture of high current dividend--DVY--and high dividend growth--VIG, or other ETFs that use the Dividend Achievers or Dividend Aritstocrats approach.
If you're picking individual stocks, I like "old" tech giants like MSFT and INTC, consumer products companies with a global footprint, and telecom. You can use the holdings of VIG as a screener to start your stock picking process.
CLS
Why Microsoft Is A Good Buy [View article]
As I said in my own recent article on the company, none of MSFT's new initiatives HAVE to work for MSFT to be a bargain. Even if revenue growth is flat, the stock is priced to deliver market-beating returns through dividends and buybacks alone. Any success on the mobile and social media fronts can be considered a bonus.
And if we're early, so be it. Reinvest the GROWING dividends and wait for the market to appreciate what should be obvious.
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
I just read your bio, and I have to say that I'm a little jealous that you're taking a sabbatical in Spain. The crisis (and Spain's anti-business political climate) notwithstanding, it's a lovely country to spend time in. Madrid is my favorite European capital, hands down.
Back to business, remember that Brazil has some rather questionable labor laws as well that cause Brazilian labor to be uncompetitive among emerging markets. The result of laws like these is that a lot of entrepreneurial activity drifts into the informal "off the books" economy, and the formal economy tends to get dominated by a handfull of large companies big enough to navigate the red tape. In this respect, Spain and Brazil are unfortunately quite similar.
Ultimately, you make money in this business by buying profitable companies at good prices. While the macro picture remains awful, prices are low enough among many Spanish and Brazilian stocks to make them worth the risk.
CLS
The Day After: Stay Away From Gold, Treasuries; Buy Solid Blue-Chip Stocks [View article]
Thanks for the comment.
CLS
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
Spain's banks do concern me, and I wish that they didn't make up such a large part of Spain's index. That said, Spain's banks are global and a significant amount of their loan book is from outside the country. Thus far it should be noted that the crisis surrounding Spain centers around its sovereign debts, not its banks. Of course, a government bond market collapse would almost certainly lead to a banking crisis as well.
To me, at current prices we are being more than compensated for the risk of meltdown--which I do NOT think will happen. But, as with all investments, you should only invest if you are comfortable with the risk being taken.
And yes, I'm actually a big fan of some Brazilian stocks and have written favorably about Ambev in the past. My only concern about Brazil--and this is not necessarily a reason to avoid the country but more just something to keep in the back of your head--is the risk of currency devaluation. The real has risen to the point that it is killing domestic industry, and the government wants to see it fall.
Thanks for the comments,
CLS
Spain Is a Strong Buy - 2 Ways to Profit [View article]
Indeed, Spain has some of the most rigid labor laws in Europe, which is why youth unemployment was a problem even before the crisis. I suspect most of Telefonica's headcount reductions in Spain going forward will be due to attrition, i.e. older workers retiring and not being replaced.
Telefonica's growth story is Latin America, where the company already gets 40% of its revenues. It's home market is in slow decline as more households "cut the cord," drop home phone service, and go "cell phone only." But Latin America should be a growth market for a long time to come.
Thanks for the comment,
CLS
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
You are correct; Taleb would rigorously reject the notion of a "safe company." By his logic, you can't "prove" that something is safe, only disprove. He's a bit of an ideologue like that, and strictly speaking he is correct.
Like I said, most people can't invest like he does (or even THINK like he does, for that matter.) But you can build a portfolio that will weather shocks well. Perhaps not black swan "proof," but at least black swan resistant. And yes, buy insurance when it's cheap.
Thanks for the comment,
CLS
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
Good comment, and you are correct. Buffett doesn't buy index funds. He knows the companies he buys inside out. And buying a company is different than buying a stock, though stock investors would be well served by going through the same thought processes as buyers of businesses. Thanks for the comment.
CLS
3 Questions Investors Should Be Asking [View article]
Still, even while his trading style is not appropriate for most investors, his basic insights can be applied.
You want investments that are "black swan proof." In the case of stocks, ALL stocks are subject to wild price swings due to black swan events. But conservatively-financed companies with stable demand for their products at least have business models that are (mostly) black swan proof. If the price takes a temporary nose dive, you're still getting your dividend check while you wait for it to recover.
(Of course, "business model black swans", like a new disruptive technology, happen every day, but that is a different story for a different article.)
CLS
The Day After: Stay Away From Gold, Treasuries; Buy Solid Blue-Chip Stocks [View article]
I actually agree with you on Japan; it seems that betting against Japanese bonds is a rite of passage that every macro hedge fund trader has to go through, and like fraternity hazing it doesn't end well.
They will eventually be "right" in that, at some point, Japan will finally blow up and its yields will soar to junk levels. But these things can plod along in equlibrium for a long time before that happens, and none of us are likely to be the ONE guy who times it right.
John Mauldin's Endgame gives a good analysis of the scenarios facing Japan. Mauldin is also smart enough to be vague on the specific timing.
CLS