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Charles Margolis

 
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  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Wondering why you think 2-day free shipping is a farce? I've not heard this before and it does seem those who use Prime, do get the free expedited shipping. I'm impartial on eBay, though I like the service, I believe eBay has certainly fulfilled potential.

    Also, if you get around to it, are you speaking to Walgreen's on-line ordering and delivering, or the physical locations? Thanks for taking time to comment.
    Jan 21, 2014. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    Some people believe AWS is very profitable, Amazon does not report the specifics on the AWS unit.
    Jan 21, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    Your point of view is interesting. Google has taken on competitors, to varying degrees of success.

    Some of Google's efforts have proven to be less successful, even though they have a massive amount of cash. Both companies, Google and Amazon, are the go-to places for different products. Once again, can not emphasize enough, customers go to where the deals are. The second a company, for some reason, subtracts dramatically from deals customers are accustomed to, well that is when I begin to worry.
    Jan 21, 2014. 07:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    I'd just say, step back for a second. Try to look at both sides, I know you probably do to an extent.

    When I step back, and try to look objectively, I see quality. I also see what the traditional analysis shows. So, I understand and respect the criticisms - I also see the performance, and I realize the market and the economy are complex -- for instance, go to the inflation calculator:

    http://1.usa.gov/tj5h8X

    Check out what the buying power of Wal-Mart's market cap is today, when WMT had a $200B market cap in the late 1990's. You see? So, the constant is change (I thought that was Einstein who said that, but apparently is was Heraclitis.) http://bit.ly/1hdnpVX (that is his bio, he does not write for Seeking Alpha :) he said: "Everything changes and nothing remains still..."
    Jan 21, 2014. 07:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    I must say I've researched AWS from an investment standpoint. I have not used it, though, I must say based on the history of it, some people may like AWS.

    Have you used it much yourself? Please read my IBM article for a little more on the AWS area of Amazon's business -- I've not done anything in-depth on AWS, though I believe Amazon branching out, is a good business move. You just have to understand, not sure how else to put it, I am objective on the company. With adjectives I've seen on this comment forum, it's almost "name calling" as a resort to try to further criticize the business. I know how it sounds, to those looking for conclusions and projections and predictions, but as always, it will be, what it will be. Have a nice day.
    Jan 21, 2014. 06:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    Reading your comments are a great way to start the morning. Thank you.

    You absolutely must watch this movie:

    http://amzn.to/1mzxi4n

    It's a fun one for you Google fans. Have a great day.
    Jan 21, 2014. 06:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Bailout2009,

    I get a slight sense for why, based on your couple other comments on AMZN articles. I'd just say, try to think objectively. I'm looking back to Paulo's article from Sept. 27th 2013, and your comment there. He said "Amazon.com could have 87%-96% downside" you said "Good analysis. I agree." So, I understand your perspective, I'd just say please try to look at my article objectively. Thank you, and have a nice day.
    Jan 21, 2014. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    ducnguyenphotography,

    Did you just start your comment, with one sentence containing both Amazon and Google? The sentence being about how they can not be put in the same sentence together? :)

    For that Sir, you get an Author's Pick :) Have a nice day.
    Jan 21, 2014. 06:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Chuck,

    Quite simply the Graham formula did not work, as applied to Amazon, up until now.

    Amazon did not play it super-safe, they designed the Kindle, they've created a superior system. My understanding is every investor is different; some follow formulas. If that works, then great. Unfortunately, anyone who shorted Amazon, expecting the company to drop - based on that formula, may be the ones who have lost.

    You must understand, I place a lot of importance on that very formula. Though, I'm not bound to the formula. Have a nice day, and I hope you have an excellent year.
    Jan 21, 2014. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    jsijimmy,

    I believe Amazon customers still go to the stores and the malls. People will always go to where the deals are, that is the simplest point -- some businesses don't understand and some do.

    JC Penney eliminated coupons for "one low price" and that did not work. Companies tend to do a lot more business, when they offer the best deals. This could create more work.

    This is where Amazon is unique. Some executives shy away from "more work." Amazon has worked to make increased volume easier. Through the robotic package handling, and plans to ship products in advance to hubs (knowing, in advance, customers in those areas tend to order those products.) Additionally, though just a concept, the idea of the automated delivery, via drone.

    jsijimmy, let's just say you were out of cookies & milk, right now. No place is open, or just don't feel like going out. I know this could be a 24 hour period of time, for delivery -- but, really, wouldn't it be nice, to at least know you had the power to Drone It. :) You don't have to, if you don't want to -- you could go without, or wait till you do feel like going shopping -- or, if that concept ever becomes reality, you could have your cookies and your milk, flown to your doorstep. It just illustrates a way of thinking; though as an investor, realistically I know any project could fly, or could fail, just so far, with the services Amazon actually offers - (not the concepts) - they appear to be convenient and offer a good value. So, I appreciate your comment, I think it's important & I think you definitely speak to many customers' opinion on shopping and investors' opinions on investing.
    Jan 20, 2014. 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Buyandhold 2012,

    Thanks for taking time to comment. I have to say, I like efficient products -- I find Amazon to be efficient.

    I believe there are certain products, on Amazon, shoppers can not find within 50+ mile radii. So, the only option is to order the product (often from Amazon.) When the product is 'Prime' there is free delivery.

    Ok, I know Bouchart said shoppers like to see products, "...to see that cans aren't dented..." but what if no one around you sells that product. I'd take a can with a dent on it (due to shipping,) over nothing. Not the same for produce and meats (in terms of quality; if I order some vegetable and some are slightly squashed, it wouldn't be all too bad.) Though, some fine quality producer could see opportunity, teaming up with Amazon. That is one thing that makes Amazon unique, to an extent (emphasis,) whereas Wal-Mart hurt small business - Amazon has too -- but small businesses can not use Wal-Mart to conduct business, the same way small businesses can use Amazon.

    I just find your comment interesting - I agree on P/E though I'm willing to use other criteria, from time to time. Additionally, my order of investment, chronologically was Apple, Google then Amazon -- just based on my view of the company, products and services. - I would just add, I am bullish on some companies, bearish on others -- though, I am fairly objective on these three. Perhaps, because they are tech companies, or perhaps because they move so quickly. I do not currently hold Google stock, as you see from the disclosure, by the way.
    Jan 20, 2014. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Qualifies to Represent,

    Thanks for adding your thoughts. It is less than a dollar a day. Amazon Fresh is only being tested in Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco. I think Bouchart's point is very good:

    "People generally like to inspect their food before they buy it..."

    Though, some would just get their packaged goods delivered -- and possibly test some products -- to find what they like. Free same day delivery on orders over $35, for a fee of less than $1 a day, seems pretty good to me.

    I see possibilities on that service. I must say -- I don't know about the drones -- but dang that would be cool.
    Jan 20, 2014. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Thank you for your interesting comment. I'd just add, re: "investing is not about absolute numbers, it is about ratios"

    Well, investing is about different things, to different people. I presume you understand that, but that's just my reaction. Best wishes to you, and all readers here, this New Year.
    Jan 20, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Hey bkrolik,

    Honestly, I'm not sure how to reply to your comment. Because you started it with, being "at a loss," and also throwing in some compliments - I appreciate. Though, I don't know whether you're just saying that, or what.

    It took 5 minutes to pull up the charts and put them in the article. Then "Yes, right. So?" Again, replying to that, as a question, followed by "Is that you wanted to say?" -- well, I wrote my reaction, and my thoughts on the company, and some thoughts on investing. I have an opinion on the value of all companies I invest in, whether I am bullish or objective on those companies. I explained my logic in the conclusion of this article.

    I find Amazon is moving rather quickly -- the company has been rather successful. Additionally, the company has encountered hurdles, and challenges, and has seemingly worked harder. If I were to pinpoint, and say: "Today Amazon is worth exactly what its market cap is" -- well, I realize, with this company in particular, by next year a major development could work favorably or unfavorably. That's the same for every company, sure. I view many companies in "possible phases" - you won't see a "this company has 25% potential upside" or "that company has 30% potential downside" article, from me, ever. Because, I believe every company (ok, most every company) has potential upside, and every company (ok, most every company) has potential downside. I also believe in exposure to Amazon -- I am conservative, I would be at the ready to pick up more exposure to this company, (notice, I say exposure, I mean through a mutual fund, or through shares of the stock) if it were to fall in multiple different scenarios. However, I must emphasize, conservatively. So, sorry if that does not answer your question specifically, but gave it a try. Thanks again for commenting.
    Jan 20, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day Of Amazon Is Here [View article]
    Paulo,

    I see what you are saying, I have the quarterly report in front of me, and I realize you are speaking to (revenue minus expenses (excluding taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization)) or EBITDA.

    But, the thing is, does that contribute to the reason to short Amazon, at $300, or so? What you are saying may be true, I have to look into the specifics more (and I am looking right now, and I did notice some of the expenses and depreciation while I was writing the article,) -- that logic might work in a certain formula.

    Thus far I do not believe it has worked into the 'formula' for so-called 'investing against Amazon.' -- I must add, I have criteria, I don't use one set formula, ever. Amazon does fit my criteria on a few points, however, like I said, I just work to try to understand both sides points. Both sides have points that are strong, and some are weak.
    Jan 20, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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