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Charles Moscoe

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  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Long term trend. I don't think that effects of the debasing that has gone on the past several years have caught up yet to be reflected in the market. I think there is a big lag there, but eventually all that logic will take over. Perhaps during the next big bear market. I'm also not convinced that QE will fully wind down and again that is short term. Also QE is now being considered in Europe. Gold prices aren't just a function of the USD although yes I used that as my example. As the world moves more and more socialist, falling deficits aren't sustainable. I see it more as a play on global volatility and currency weakness. It will shine again one day when everybody least expects it.
    Apr 18 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Yes, the first graph is to log scale, which never paints an accurate picture when tracking prices IMO. Throw up a regular scale graph and the story is alot different.
    Apr 18 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    I'm long gold from the $300s, a time when people called me a "gold bug" (which is sort of derogatory implying some sort of fringe survivalist viewpoint). Never sold the $1900 top (although I was VERY tempted) but starting to add again now through call options. I think the blowoff bubble top will be closer to $5000. I've waited 10 years, willing to wait another 10 for this to happen. I don't think there is any chance gold sees $800 again in any of our lifetimes. I generally ignore the day to day movements but weakness gets bought big time by very wealthy people and nations. It simply costs too much to produce gold for it to drop much further. Too much volatility in the world and debasing of the USD is a long term trend to support demand. At the end of the day the golden rule is true, he who has the gold rules. China knows this, so does the USA.
    Apr 18 01:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services Is In For The Long Haul For Those Investors With Iron Stomach [View article]
    I've heard of "oughta", never "nitch" however.
    Apr 18 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexican share losses pressure NII Holdings to make a deal [View news story]
    Worth revisiting as its now down 75% from when I raised the caution flags. I hope nobody lost too much on this junker. I still think it goes bankrupt and the market seems to agree with me.
    Apr 18 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services Is In For The Long Haul For Those Investors With Iron Stomach [View article]
    Sales and earnings stagnation and a deteriorating business model. I think this could see single digits. There may be a play here in the future but its way too early to jump aboard this ship IMO.
    Apr 18 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Management is my main concern also. Lots of insider selling in the low $2s and zero buying and like you said out of whack compensation levels for a company worth under $100m. Still interested however, but need to know that the turnaround is going to happen when they say it will otherwise cash becomes a concern and the whole buy thesis is invalid. Interesting stock and appreciate the article and the comments here.
    Apr 18 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Thanks. By all accounts this looks like a nice spec buy. I'm still investigating. My only concern is the extremely long history that other commenters have pointed out. A history of management not being very credible. Any reason these concerns are alleviated or is this still the main risk? I see cash burn but not too much of a concern as the market cap is so low and there appears to be a shift to profitability. Question is will that happen? How credible is management to believe them that indeed they will be cash flow positive before they run out of cash?
    Apr 18 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy Turnaround Not Likely [View article]
    I think I played the Hoby hype almost perfectly, although I missed the final act which was the Q4 earnings which I predicted to be a non-event and sell-off and the opposite occurred leaving me embarrassed but now vindicated as the price has come back down to below where I suggested to sell in the first place.
    Apr 18 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy Turnaround Not Likely [View article]
    I also don't understand how they didn't leverage the best relationship they have to launch this women's brand. The most irreverent female around, Rihanna, is at their doorstep as she is managed by Roc Nation. Instead Hoby went with these "muses" (as he calls them) who are just regular people with funny colored hair that I don't think will resonate with anybody. You are right that Beats can easily wipe the floor with them. Its weak.
    Apr 18 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy Turnaround Not Likely [View article]
    Thanks for your comments as always. Interesting note about Stance is that Skullcandy is using their same PR/Marketing firm for this whole Women's line. (which I noted is a likely disaster in the making).
    Apr 18 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy Turnaround Not Likely [View article]
    I think the marketing is terrible. I also don't understand why they had to outsource that to a New York ad agency when they have 400 employees. Just a bad angle focusing around their obselete products that nobody buys like Navigator. I just don't get it and just like their focus on the gay market during the olympics with their rainbow Aviators front and center on their site and social, I am just perplexed. They have lost their entire rugged action sports edge IMO. R.I.P. Skullcandy, sorry but true. Focus should be on differentiating the audio technology and bluetooth advancements (where is the Air Raid marketing?) but its on ridiculous story lines that appeal to such tiny markets and turn off the core customer. Retailers are not going to buy this, mark my words.
    Apr 18 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Curious as to what % of sales is derived from the VZ relationship? Maybe you have this number or a best guess?
    Apr 18 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidity Services Is In For The Long Haul For Those Investors With Iron Stomach [View article]
    I know what a niche is, nitch I'm not familiar with. I think the growth (or in this case lack thereof) speaks for itself in respect to the strength of this company's business model. Have you used their services? They are impossible to deal with and I say that from a customer perspective as I manufacture products and often liquidate ones for whatever reason.
    Apr 18 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Skullcandy Turnaround Not Likely [View article]
    I thought about it and here is the "positive" of the SKUL story: Astro Gaming

    Problem is, just like Millennial Media (a company we discussed which i was bullish on but not so much now), the core "growth" story is dead.

    They can't spin of or sell Astro as its the only successful thing they have, but Astro isn't worth $300m. I said before it is optimistically worth $100m, so about $2.50 per share.

    I don't think the core brand has much value without a focus on proprietary audio technology, which it isn't.
    Apr 18 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
585 Comments
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