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Charles Moscoe

 
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  • Facebook May Become Bigger Than Google AdSense [View article]
    While I agree with your general FB negativity, there are plenty of ways that online advertising platform can outgrow GDP. Think of TV brand dollars coming online for the first time. The move from print is just in its infancy as well. The reason FB wont do well with this is because it is a publisher itself and other publishers wont get on board with it. Wait and see. Publishers want independent platforms not ones that compete against themselves. It comes down to data and trust. Google is in a better position with Doubleclick.
    Sep 27 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brightcove Is A Pure Play On The Rapid Secular Growth Of Online Video [View article]
    Stick to the blue chips if you can't handle the volatility. I've had (and recommended) stocks that have dropped over 50% and then rebounded 1000%. You are just cherry picking and have not let anything play out. Fact is we are up in our live portfolio substantially this year so far. I don't share my trading strategies with the general public as that is proprietary information for my paid subscribers. What you see here on Seeking Alpha are simply ideas with no recommendations to buy or sell. So please go troll elsewhere.
    Sep 26 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook May Become Bigger Than Google AdSense [View article]
    scottinno... I'm sure you can have something more productive to contribute than picking at the writer's grammar?
    Sep 25 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook May Become Bigger Than Google AdSense [View article]
    I don't think your thesis is likely to play out for one very important reason. You may or may not remember Yahoo's unsucessful attempt of selling non-Yahoo traffic and it failed miserably. The counterparties simply do not trust the o&o with all of this data. They want a neutral third party ad server. Now Facebook continues to do well monetizing its own traffic but I think this move to monetize outside traffic will be a failure. Microsoft sold them Atlas because they couldn't get it to work either. Assumptions of Facebook's success here is what is killing the independent ad tech stocks and I think its failure will be the turning point. Thanks for the article and I look forward to the comments as this is a very interesting subject.
    Sep 25 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital River Will Continue To Underperform [View article]
    Agree with you. Just not a great business to be in and it spikes every so often on a pump as its one of those companies that you can tell a great story about even though there is not much substance there. Sort of like RNWK.
    Sep 24 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brightcove Is A Pure Play On The Rapid Secular Growth Of Online Video [View article]
    Thanks for reading. Just to be clear since I've gotten a few emails about BCOV - I'm bullish on it but its not one of my "top picks". I felt that this stock needed some attention so I laid out the bull case for it. I'm FAR more bullish on YUME still, only because the OVP business has always been a bad one. I still think that BCOV is the best way to play OVP if you want exposure. But I want to temper any over exuberance, particularly after the 8-K that was just released talking about the DDOS attack on BCOV and while it should not materially harm revenues it is certainly a negative catalyst that I did not consider in this article (new news).
    Sep 24 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Is An Undervalued Spin Off With A Strong Balance Sheet And Growth Prospects [View article]
    There will definitely be drama between Ginsburg and Muruelo. Ginsburg is more of a visionary who would like to build this in to an industry leader and $100 stock over thr next 10 years. Muruelo has a traders mentality and would flip this tomorrow for $20. I think Muruelo is well positioned to achieve his goal with his 2 board seats plus The Nguyen vote. To me the backstory of Muruelo and his goals and history of success achieving them is just as critical to the bull story as the fundamentals (which are attractive at these levels). So while I appreciate this article and agree with it for the most part, I plan to write one that will focus more on the backstory and likely outcomes.
    Sep 24 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Is An Undervalued Spin Off With A Strong Balance Sheet And Growth Prospects [View article]
    I used some wrong word choices. I know Neil was a long time exec at DG and I followed that story closely (made alot of money off it). I've never been impressed with Neil on an operational level or presentation, but when I mean "hand picked", he's surely on the side of Meruelo. I think the $15M buyback program is a good start and I bet the Meruelo-controlled board will push for more in time, especially when the company turns that long-term profitability corner. When I say "shrewd" again I don't mean operational shrewd, more like setting the company up to be sold, just like DG. You can argue that the deal was botched, but for those who bought low enough (like Meruelo), they made alot of money. Certainly Meruelo was pushing for that outcome then and he is certainly pushing for it now. The business itself is also pretty sharp. Margins are very high by ad tech platform standards and the company is well positioned on the technology side rather than the media side. Sort of like Rubicon in that respect. Its hard to argue that it can't get cheaper, as a 10k share block at market can push it down 5% due to the lack of liquidity but I have to imagine that Meruelo will jump in to support the price as he did with DG consistently. I think that Q1 will be interesting and we will see a series of letters and grandstanding from Meruelo looking to sell the company. It really looks like an attractive takeover target right now given the high operating leverage and EBITDA profitability. It is a nice open stack and dare I throw out the Yahoo name like everybody else but it would fit in nicely in to its offering. I bought in today and while I could be early, I don't want to miss the inevitable move. I can be patient with this one given the cash levels and improving metrics. For just over $100M net cash you are buying about $700M in written down assets. Operationally if they can pull this all together it is quite the stack.
    Sep 24 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Is An Undervalued Spin Off With A Strong Balance Sheet And Growth Prospects [View article]
    Thanks for the article John. I'm likely going to do a followup on this one talking more about what will likely transpire in the next 12 months. As far as ad techs go, this one is very low risk given the strong EBITDA margins and cash horde. In fact the acquisitions made were bargain basement also. SZMK bought Peer39 for half of what the VCs invested. This is a very shrewd management team that is being controlled by Meruelo. It is Meruelo's involvement and control that is the major catalyst and makes this a screaming buy at $8. With his 2 board seats and hand picked CEO, theres no doubt in my mind that this will be sold just like the core DG business was to Extreme Reach. Anybody paying attention to this story (and not many are) should be able to fill in the dots.
    Sep 24 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ReachLocal Is A Compelling Turnaround Story In The Works [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. I agree about the lack of competitive advantage that RLOC has. The reason I write is so I can get feedback on my thesis. In this case it is hard to argue with you and User Z, who present very compelling arguments against the turnaround (at these prices anyhow) and my followup research confirms that. I may have missed the boat on this one.
    Sep 24 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TubeMogul IPO Creates Huge Valuation Gap With YuMe And Sets Up Compelling Pair Trade [View article]
    I don't understand the comment?
    Sep 22 09:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITT Educational Services Can Be Bought At Fire Sale Prices Due To Incredibly Overstated Fears [View article]
    Yes, this was a revound trade for me. I was really expecting $10+ quickly but it never materialized. I took $8.60 however and made a little bit of money as my average was just over $8. It became clear that this wasn't going yo get that 50% snap back I expected. I got lucky I guess as my thesis was certainly wrong.
    Sep 20 06:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Cloud's Silver Lining Isn't Worth The Risk [View article]
    I'm not a huge short seller of anything. Sometimes during earnings I will gamble but its almost a zero sum game. I think the market still has lots of legs here. I don't know enough about SHLD, but it seems that it could be a valuable REIT. I don't follow it though. Lets face it, by all conventional metrics WDAY looks ridiculously overpriced, but so did CNQR. If I was to short tech I'd get short some of the Chinese stocks like CTRP or even LNG. I wrote an article recently about that and it is down from when I wrote it. I have since covered however as I still think it is early to get too enthusiastic about being short anything. It seems everybody has gotten too bearish too quick. All my "public" friends are short. Being short seems fashionable now, so i've gotten alot more positive about the market outlook.
    Sep 20 02:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITT Educational Services Can Be Bought At Fire Sale Prices Due To Incredibly Overstated Fears [View article]
    Thanks for reading. I haven't been following the saga since I wrote this article. My focus is solely on internet stocks, particularly ad tech, Saas and cloud plays. I give Max Vision credit here as he was clearly right about the risks. I don't have a further opinion at this time as I haven't really examined it enough.
    Sep 20 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Cloud's Silver Lining Isn't Worth The Risk [View article]
    Valuations look ridiculous on paper but CNQR acquisition by SAP at near 15x sales makes any of these plays unshortable. Legacy software companies are sitting on mountains of cash with cheap access to even more cash and are faced with declining secular growth. Expect consolidation to continue and WDAY and ATHN are prime targets no matter how crazy that sounds (and I agree it sounds crazy).
    Sep 19 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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