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  • Ulta Salon: Possible 34% Upside [View article]
    I believe that it is very dangerous to back a retailer trading at an all time high. This is one of the (many) situations where looking only at the numbers can be quite deceiving. I note that the other 2 articles by NYU Stern have a similar premise, focusing on upgrading stocks near all-time highs. In a market trading near all-time highs, I reiterate that I believe that this is a very dangerous proposition.
    Oct 9 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Thanks for reading, Matt.
    Oct 9 12:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    "I don't see the value here." - This is because you didn't take in to account the costs related to the spin off. Remember that only happened in February. Despite all this EBITDA is guided to $21M-$26M for the year with those margins improving and will be higher next year.
    Oct 9 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following Up On A Workday Short [View article]
    While I agree with you in principle Amit, its just so dangerous to be short any of these enterprise cloud names right now. I was short CNQR and luckily covered before earnings and then before the acquisition. Was ridiculously overpriced just like WDAY but that didn't stop SAP from paying even more than the ridiculous price for it.
    Oct 9 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Autobytel Is A Takeover Target In A Consolidating Industry [View article]
    "Plus, the core business of selling leads in the way ABTL does, is a terrible long-term business, which you will discover after analyzing the industry. "

    Envoy... I noticed the low margins are they endemic here? Is this like the QuinStreet or BankRate of the car buying world?

    I haven't looked at this company previously but the move in TrueCar peaked my interest, so I'm looking in to the industry. Are any of the companies good buys or all plagued by simply a bad business model like those 2 lead gen companies I mentioned that will never make alot of money no matter what they do?
    Oct 9 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Millennial Media: Is There An Easy Way Out For This Struggling Company? [View article]
    Derek,
    Nexage only has $60M in MANAGED revenues. If you count revenues this way then you would say that Marin Software for instance would have $6B in revenues and obviously that isn't the case. Nexage really has about $6M in revenues. I'm not clear how Millennial can count managed revenues for Nexage when all of the other similar companies in the industry count the lower number in accordance with GAAP. So if this is the case and Millennial counts only $6M in revenue this acquisition becomes highly dilutive. Suddenly you have a company with a $300M market cap that will be trading at 1x sales with sub-40% margins. Doesn't look so attractive given the multitude of other opportunities in the space with better stories.
    Oct 8 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Based on my calculations and factoring in the $3 dividend on the sale of Extreme Reach, Meruelo is pretty close to break even right now on his investment in DG which began with open market buying in 2012 which has now become Sizmek on his 13% stake in the company. He was up as much as 100% in March. Nothing has changed since. I suspect he will become quite disruptive soon. He was up like $30M in March.
    Oct 8 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Crazy how a block of 10k shares took this down almost 5% earlier in the day. Almost no liquidity here and it got marched up with small buys the rest of the day that made up most of the daily volume. Looks very easy to manipulate and accumulate cheap in the open market for anybody enterprising enough to do so. I suspect that this is what is happen. Given the strong cash flow it becomes very attractive to private equity at these levels. I'm likely going to add tomorrow and make this my top holding. While it seems brutal at a cursory glance, it looks like a really good bet right now.
    Oct 8 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Thanks for that note. That explains it. I do thank the IR department for being so incompetent however as it is the only reason that I have been able to buy SZMK shares in the $7s as I've been eyeing it since double digits. I made alot of money with DGIT, albeit quite painfully at some points, and plan to do it again here. I think the combination of the huge amount of cash, modest buybacks, Meruelo control and strong cash flow put a floor in this stock that maybe some of the other independent ad techs do not have. That is my bull thesis in a nutshell here.
    Oct 8 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    If you count the current assets - the money owned by Israel tax department and from DG to still be collected both this quarter - Sizmek has almost $110M in cash. There is $15M earmarked for a buyback this quarter. Also I noticed that the net receivables (AR - AP) are about $25M last quarter. So for a company trading at what its at thats a very very strong balance sheet considering no debt and net positive obligations. As you mentioned Msg212, cash flows should continue to improve as operating margins expand. Situations like this don't last indefinitely. Something has to give. I like your idea of a massive buyback of up to half the outstanding shares.
    Oct 8 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    You probably have more experience with executive placements than I do by the sounds of it. I'm just curious as to why it would be hard to find a CFO for a public company of this nature? It seems like there would be a lineup of applicants for this job. YuME has also been searching for a CFO for several months now (Since the Q1 call). I spoke to some institutional people about that situation and the consensus was that it is bullish for the acquisition theory not having an official CFO in place and that a company would not likely bring on a CFO at great expense simply to get a deal done. I wonder why Sizmek would be a different situation? Neil did say on the call that the search will likely be completed Q3. Maybe there is something else going on here? I just think that if a company like Sizmek with 900 employees in 48 offices is determined to find a CFO, there will be plenty of candidates. Seems like a prestigious job.
    Oct 8 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Now I never presented a real acquisition theory here but if I did it would revolve around Meruelo and the story of how disruptive he was by basically bullying his way in to DG and using his army of lawyers (who DG ultimately paid for in a lawsuit settlement) to force the sale of the legacy TV business. Just by connecting the dots I think his end game here is to force the sale of the rest of the company (Sizmek) once he props it up first. So perhaps not an imminent acquisition theory but ultimately I can't see it not happening within a couple years.
    Oct 8 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    "Also, SZMK's IR department is a disgrace and should be replaced ASAP."

    Hard to argue with that. I was looking for the Cannaccord conference that Sizmek supposedly presented in August. In fact they sent a PR stating that they are presenting at 8am on August 13. Couldn't find the webcast anywhere and I don't think they ultimately presented. This remains a mystery as it was their most recent planned presentation. I found webcasts of every other presenter on the WSW site but the Sizmek slot was blank. Any ideas what happened here?
    Oct 8 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    I agree with you MSG that more buybacks the better, although I would use cash rather than take on a revolver (personal opinion here). To me it looks like after Aerify that Sizmek has everything that they need and I don't think anymore acquisitions are in the cards. At least it sounded that way on the last call when Neil was asked about it. He said they will focus on building out and integrating what they have. So I think even another "tuck-in" acquisition is unlikely at this point. I think that the lack of CFO is a position as a sign to a potential acquisition being in the works because surely they would not hire a CFO if the plan was to sell the company. I'm also not sure if Ginsburg is a threat anymore. He definitely botched the Extreme Reach deal as they turned down $25 per share years ago, but right now Meruelo controls the board and the company so I think Ginsburg learned his lesson and really can't get in the way of anything. He has already lost control and he isn't getting it back so he might as well just enjoy the last part of the ride here.
    Oct 8 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek: The Profitable Ad Tech Company That Nobody Is Talking About [View article]
    Thanks for reading, Stan. Overall growth for 2014 is projected to be between 12%-17%. Conversant - which was just acquired - grew at 7%. What I'm seeing right now with acquisitions are profitable companies more so than growth, unless we are talking about a point solution, which Sizmek isn't.
    Oct 8 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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