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Charles Moscoe  

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  • RadiSys Is Reaching A Meaningful Inflection Point [View article]
    Thanks for all the info Mike and I wish you the best on this investment.

    After a very careful review, I decided not to buy RSYS.

    I simply don't like the telecom sector. And I think the chances of the software business becoming successful from such a tiny base in such a competitive market to be low.

    Without any cash it is a risky bet and management and the board has yet to back up their supposed conviction with any meaningful share purchases.

    I understand how stock performance will be aligned with bonuses and that is attractive.

    However, I've seen too many of these telecom companies simply whittle away for years as management is really incentivized to do nothing but continue to promise to turn the corner.

    Strategically as well I'm not sure if customers will embrace the transition to software because they will essentially competing against many of them. Given high customer concentration risks, even losing a single customer can meaningfully impact results.

    I don't like Bronson as CEO. I think he is promotional and frankly he has underperformed for many years as CFO. His comments about "the next big customer that can transform the company" turns me off. He appears to be trying to build demand to create a story to increase the stock price but the public isn't buying it after 20 years of disappointment.

    Again, there is not a huge margin of error here given the lack of cash. And the resources required to properly compete in this software space could be challenging to Radisys.

    With a better balance sheet I might have taken a speculative position here but I simply don't see a very attractive risk/reward scenario.
    Mar 23, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Habit Restaurants: Suspicious Takeaways From FY 2014 Earnings Week [View article]
    There is a burger bubble right now. So much competition and little differentiation. McDonalds is also getting very aggressive with promotions as its sales are weak. American consumers are also preferring chicken over beef long term for health reasons. Finally the beef input costs are sky high due to climate issues and foreign demand. Long term I don't understand how this is a good investment at such ridiculous multiples. Comparing this to Chipotle is absurd as that company invented a category of assembly line burritos. It is one in a hundred of success stories of publicly traded restaurants. No company has ever lived up to the multiples that HABT and SHAK have right now out of the gate.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • DGI Investing: It's Riskier Than You Probably Think [View article]
    Good post conkjc. I totally agree. Weaker investors lack conviction and often get scared out of positions.
    Mar 22, 2015. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    You must be slow as the stock went up almost 50% following earnings!
    Mar 22, 2015. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article]
    Well at $1.60 I think the risk/reward clearly favors the speculator. The company has very little cash burn and most expenses which explain the 2014 loss are front loaded onboarding. Should at least be cash flow positive this year. Even if you take the potential of Nexus completely out of the equation you are paying $13M net cash for a company that should be able to generate somewhere near that in cash flow at least by next year. So ridiculously cheap here and that is even if you throw every possible bullish scenario out the window.
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Undervalued Stock With Greater Than 50% Upside Potential [View article] doesn't handle level 1 support. In fact most employees are American. They have an extensive work at home support staff.
    Mar 22, 2015. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • RadiSys Is Reaching A Meaningful Inflection Point [View article]
    How much conviction do you have in the CEO, Mike?

    He was the CFO for a long time, when RSYS struggled.

    Seems like the company hasn't made money for 20 years and insiders own a very tiny amount of shares.

    I get the whole part about compensation being based on share performance but why don't the insiders own significant amount of shares?

    I've been doing a bit of research into this company but I keep coming back to an unsettling feeling about the management and board.
    Mar 19, 2015. 06:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Envivio +27.3% on big FQ4 beat, return to growth [View news story]
    "compares with a current market cap of $81M" --> Market cap was only $42M at the close. ENVI was trading at cash value with no debt.

    Actually not a great report as the same money losing trends continue and as you mention the important product category in free fall offset by the lower margin professional services.

    It is still losing lots of money and customer concentration is a major reason why I wouldn't get long here even as a spec buy. Bad industry with customers that are notorious for trying to save every penny.
    Mar 19, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    The most money MSLP could borrow was $4M. So that should tell you what the real value of the company is. It is insolvent.
    Mar 19, 2015. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Sell-Off In Vince Holding Represents Opportunity [View article]
    Stan... You should specialize in analysis of handbag companies. You have been right on with KORS, COH and now VNCE. I'm sure I'm missing a few too. Good job!
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    I think shareholders were looking for the next Hansen Beverage OTC miracle. It happens about one in a million or so times. But yes, most of these shell company reverse takeovers turn out very very ugly. MSLP had a better run than 99.9% of them though. I think it is toast however.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    I started my bearish commentary when the stock was around $14. See the comments in the Mark T. Phillips bullish MSLP article series.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony launches its 'cable killer' streaming video service [View news story]
    Sony should buy YuMe (YUME) for Playstation Vue.

    If anybody can recall YuMe is the adserver in PS3.

    YuMe is also big in Japan as evidenced by that recent deal with the largest agency there.

    YuMe also means "dream" in Japanese.

    Perfect fit.
    Mar 18, 2015. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Panic Sold MusclePharm (And Why You Should Tread Carefully) [View article]
    MSLP is a marketing machine. That is what attracted me to it in the first place. No doubt it makes the best products on the market at the best price for the consumer. However, there is really not a whole lot proprietary about its products. As I've been saying since $14 in dozens of comments on this site is that it is a highly commoditized business. That doesn't mean that nobody can make money in it but the only reason that MSLP has grown so fast in sales is because of its aggressive discounting and channel stuffing. Its obvious to anybody who understands the industry. Obviously MSLP does not have the low cost manufacturing capabilities to effectively compete. It simply will never be able to be profitable. Operating leverage and all relevant metrics are all trending sharply negative. Additionally, finally everybody can agree that management is incompetent as a best case scenario and criminal as a worst. The story behind how this became listed should scare anybody out of owning it. Certainly as the PPS drops the risk/reward for that miracle turnaround improves but I simply can't model any scenario where I think that MSLP survives 2015. The way it is being priced, the market agrees with that. I have no position but have done considerable research in to the company when investigating it as a potential buy over the past year.
    Mar 18, 2015. 05:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's In The Box? Nothing Good, Apparently [View article]
    Theoretically sure, but stocks like BOX have borrow rates that could exceed 50% a year. I find shorting stuff like this a zero sum game. You need it to drop hard and fast or you can be eating big interest payments and it ties up account leverage big time. Although being long is suicide.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment