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Charles Moscoe  

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  • SodaStream Q4 2014 Quarterly Preview [View article]
    I had to cash my $17.80 entry shares from yesterday. Very bullish long term at these levels but still think short term headwinds not totally factored in and there is no more discount from the NYT article yesterday.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Finds Itself A Quiet End To 2014 [View article]
    I bought your report Seth and I'd recommend it to others. Nice comprehensive review of the quarter. I think anybody serious about this company would be silly not to buy Seth's reports. Very fair and unbiased IMO.
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Finds Itself A Quiet End To 2014 [View article]
    To be clear, I don't expect great results. However, expectations are so poor going in that I think that the risk/reward favors the upside. If you look at Q3, the results were well below expectations and the shares barely sold off. I think at this new price following the NYT article, the opportunity exists for just some green shoots to drive the share price considerably higher. I keep hearing about the forex etc, but the street has already baked all of this in. Long term the opportunity makes sense to me and I am going to build a nice position here. Right now you are right I lack conviction but I just got long today at $17.80 as noted. I've been waiting patiently for an opportunity and thank the NYT for providing that extra $1 in downside. As a pure earnings play I am pretty confident that the stock will be higher than it closed at today by the end of the week. Sort of reminds me of when I bought GMCR a couple years ago at around the same level (I think mid-$17s) right in front of earnings which were terrible and included a big guide down. The stock sold off in AH to as low as $13 or $14. I had a huge paper loss for a moment but it reversed and finished at over $20 the next day. It didn't really look back. I'm not comparing GMCR to SODA at all, simply stating how often a stock just reaches a level where it wont get much cheaper no matter what news is released. That is normally the time to get long (like the GMCR reversal day). Of course that may or may not take place so I'm putting the cart a little ahead of the horse here but I've been doing this long enough that I have come to favor setups like this even if speculative. I'm certainly not in a full position here but I am very bullish about the company's prospects a year from now.
    Feb 23, 2015. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Finds Itself A Quiet End To 2014 [View article]
    From a technical perspective it also appears that the shorts have been covering. The shorts have also been right since day 1 about SODA. While the short position remains higher than average it is down significantly in even the past month. While Tilson was clearly very early, right now the stock is trading for less than half of his original purchase price. Its true that the fundamentals have suffered in this time but I maintain that it is overblown. Unless the company starts projecting losses (which I don't believe is possible) I think we are at or near a historic bottom. I have left plenty of dry powder in case earnings disappoint and am prepared to double down on my position - otherwise I will let it ride out to $30-$40 where I believe fair value lies and where the stock will get with some signs of green shoots. I also think there is still a chance of a strategic acquisition or major investment that could be a massive catalyst that the market is putting no value on at the moment. Even the suggestion in Bloomberg of such an idea causes 20%+ spikes as we have seen many times in this stock.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Finds Itself A Quiet End To 2014 [View article]
    The market has certainly priced in a best case scenario for the Keurig product when its not clear if consumers will ever adopt it. Whitney Tilson is very critical of its prospects given the high cost of use and alleged inferior carbonation. His main thesis - of which I totally agree with - is that simply stabilizing the US business will bring a $40 PPS. This is primarily a foreign used product but it is traded in the US by people who don't really realize how successful it is in Sweden, Norway etc... I think it is a significant market mis-pricing even if all of the bear fears turn out to be correct. There is a real US branding problem as everybody associates it with cola when that isn't what most people use it for and it gets bad reviews for cola. Definitely secular tailwinds behind the sparkling water story.
    Feb 23, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Finds Itself A Quiet End To 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for the comprehensive analysis Seth.

    Here's a quote from Whitney Tilson today about the front page business section negative article in the New York Times:

    "This is just the kind of article (from the front page of today’s NYT business section) that comes out when a stock is so beaten down that it’s about to skyrocket – mark my words. I wouldn’t change a word of my presentation on SODA at the Robin Hood Investors Conference last Oct."

    I just got long SODA at $17.80. Finally the risk reward is there. Remember this is still a profitable company and no fear of that going away. Good margins and overall positive sentiment around the actual products. I think the Keurig fear is so way overdone and is actually a major catalyst for SODA when it becomes clear that not only might it never be released but its likely not to be received well by consumers. It will also draw so much more exposure to the space. Keurig marketing dollars will benefit SodaStream. Even right now most people don't know what a SodaStream is and its considered pretty "fringe". I think this story is in its infancy of market adoption.
    Feb 23, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    According to your Facebook you were a car salesman at a Volkswagen dealership up until a year ago, Martin. This gets better and better the more I look in to the "ad tech insider Martin Maiorano". I love it!!! Enjoy your Sunday folks...
    Feb 22, 2015. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    Martin... Your silence is deafening. Tell us more about how much of an icon you are in the ad tech world as you pitch display ads on Cars.com to small business owners. Hilarious that I got trolled by an advertising salesman. Note to the public: always consider the source!
    Feb 22, 2015. 12:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    Medici... Your name is Martin Maiorano and you work in advertising sales for Cars.com, correct? I like to know who I am talking to, its only fair.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    The fun part about Seeking Alpha is that anybody can chime in here and be an an anonymous expert under an alias with purported "multi-nationals" as clients and Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy as partners. I am an open book and I know everybody that matters in the internet marketing business.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson Global - Selling At 30% Less Than Activists' Cost Basis And Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    Hudson has a 2.9 rating at Glassdoor. Thats not all that bad and in line with the site average I'd say. I use Glassdoor and other sites as part of my research into the internals of a company. Out of all the companies I follow Jive Software has the highest Glassdoor rating by far at 4.6 but yet the stock continues to slide. Having happy employees isn't really indicative of having a profitable company. I'm really looking hard in to a company right now with a Glassdoor rating of about 1. Its the lowest I've seen and employees hate the company but its because it doesn't pay very well. Does that make it a bad investment? Sorry to get off topic but I thought I'd comment on the use of Glassdoor in making investment decisions. Often though there is some good information about the company that can be gleaned from Glassdoor if you can weed through the obvious disgruntled employees and the company promotion. In a case like Hudson which is a turnaround story, I'd pay much more attention to recent reviews rather than the overall rating. I have no position in Hudson BTW.
    Feb 21, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    I am happy your company had success with Rubicon Project. Let me first say that I am a user of many ad tech platforms. I understand you are just an employee somewhere, so you aren't a direct client. Everybody with a job in the field of ad tech seems to be an expert these days. You can read client reviews on sites like Trust Radius and G2Crowd. Comparing a complete ad management stack with 4000 clients and 900 employees in 70 countries to a bunch of startup point solutions is simply absurd. Sizmek is at the highest client satisfaction level out of any ad tech company. Plus you keep ignoring the fact that the company has an entirely new platform and will be migrating customers over to it this year.. I am sorry you had a bad experience with the legacy platform. I have been advertising on the internet for 20 years and am a pioneer in the field of online marketing. I was possibly the first Google Adwords advertiser as I was running ads with no competition the morning it was released. So please don't think that as a simple employee of a company that uses Rubicon Project that you know more than me about this topic. What you are saying is simply Rubicon project marketing hype. The phrases are for the most part meaningless and educated advertising people know this. With that said there is also alot more to investing in stocks than client satisfaction. Jive Software has some of the highest client satisfaction around but its stock continues to suffer. Either Rubicon Project is extremely over valued or Sizmek is extremely undervalued or both. I can't waste anymore time responding to this nonsense. Good luck with your Rubicon project stock. I never said it was a bad company and in fact like I said I owned an extremely large position at $8. Sizmek though offers unequivoquely better value though for a comparably competitive business - nevermind a profitable one.
    Feb 21, 2015. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    Thanks jimmyb. I have been bearish on FUEL since $50. Posted about it many times here in many articles touting it. The black box model it employs is going the way of the dodo bird. For that reason I cannot own it even at these prices. Customers want their own data and ADTs are under increasing pressure to deliver it and that is why Sizmek fits so perfectly in the heart of this new secular ad tech trend.
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    Rubicon Project is an ad exchange or SSP. I am bearish on Rubicon Project at current valuation as it relies entirely upon cookies which are falling out of favor fast. Sizmek is an open stack ad management platform. Compares more to Google's Doubleclick in terms of similarity. Sizmek is hoping that customers want to retain their data and will choose it over a closed system like Doubleclick and Facebook's Atlas. At 30% YOY core business growth Sizmek has been successful. The legacy rich media business as you noted is in steep decline. That isn't new information. Customers are being migrated this year to the new platform. The reason Rubicon trades at such a high multiple is primarily due to different sentiment. Fact is most people dont understand the space so public sentiment just drives the PPS. I owned Rubicon at $8 and posted here many times about it when sentiment wasn't very good. Since then the company went on a roadshow and the share price more than doubled. If you buy Rubicon now you are paying a huge premium for hype.
    Feb 21, 2015. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sizmek Short Squeeze May Be Imminent In The Wake Of Game-Changing Q4 Results [View article]
    Meurelo is also asking for one of the board members to be immediately replaced with somebody that he chooses from 3 prospects. He also says he has been in discussions with other major shareholders and that the consensus is that shares are extremely undervalued versus peer group.
    Feb 20, 2015. 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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