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Charles Moscoe

 
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  • Quiksilver's Margin Problem, Covenant Breach Risk, Increasing Cash Burn: Why The Common Stock Is Likely To Get Wiped Out [View article]
    I wasn't trying to imply that the debt trades at positive levels, only that its not implying bankruptcy (at least yet). Its distressed for sure but not a write off.

    Invesco in their quarterly filing as of Sept 30 reported 27.2M shares or almost 16% of the float. Thats still a small position for Invesco though, about 1.4% of their portfolio. So it won't make or break them.

    Again, I'm not bullish here and don't think that the company is worth anywhere near its current market cap (let alone EV), but I was almost interested in a flier before this 100% move up off the lows.

    Off topic but curious as to your thoughts on BEBE if you have any as it sorta fits the theme here of a dying retail brand that you like to cover but without the debt burden. I have no position in it, but looking at it as a potential long based on turnaround potential and the "coolness" factor still being there a bit.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiksilver's Margin Problem, Covenant Breach Risk, Increasing Cash Burn: Why The Common Stock Is Likely To Get Wiped Out [View article]
    Although it does appear on the surface like the core brands are dead (as they are no doubt in sales decline), I would attribute this to a weak snow/surf/skate secular market trend. These still are leading brands (Roxy, DC, Quiksilver) within this space. Attractive for acquisition or divesture. I wonder what Invesco's end game is here? T Rowe Price also owns 15%.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiksilver's Margin Problem, Covenant Breach Risk, Increasing Cash Burn: Why The Common Stock Is Likely To Get Wiped Out [View article]
    I was looking for any positive to buy a small spec position of ZQK following earnings and couldn't find any. All metrics are worse and every product in every region is down. There are no green shoots here. I do disagree with shorting this though, as I did with your suggestion on ARO - although you have been in the money on that after some initial pain. Although I'm not a big short seller to begin with. Here is what would scare me away from the short (although please don't confuse me for a long as I'm hardly bullish here):

    1) Since August Invesco has bought 15% of the shares at an average of below $2.

    2) There was some good size insider buying in the $3s in June.

    3) Unlike Aeropostale, the brands are popular and are "cool".

    4) There is positive EBITDA

    5) The bond market doesn't seem very weak for ZQK, implying the imminent threat of bankruptcy isn't really there.
    Dec 19, 2014. 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    So you are up $6M and still holding for another $3M?
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quiksilver's Margin Problem, Covenant Breach Risk, Increasing Cash Burn: Why The Common Stock Is Likely To Get Wiped Out [View article]
    This definitely feels like one of those crazy spikes before very bad news sets in and the stock drops like 90%.

    Earnings were really bad and the stock sold off immediately on them only to reverse up a few percent. I knew after seeing this unfold that the stock would have a great day and it did.

    This move to $2.74 though has taken me by surprise. I figured the stock would have since reverted back down to the mid or at the most high $1s by now once reality set in.
    Dec 19, 2014. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    Wow the longs sure are rabid here LOL

    No I'm not "Silly" and I've never posted about this stock on the Yahoo board.

    In fact I know next to nothing about this company.

    My point is that its:

    a) a bad, low margin industry that happens to be cyclical
    b) stock already up 5000% over the past 5 years
    c) everybody overwhelmingly bullish

    Can it go up more? Of course. It ran over $60 a few years ago only to drop down below $1 and is now on its way back up again.
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Consistent Risk/Reward Speculation That I Have Ever Found [View article]
    "I can't believe articles like this keep getting published. You are ignoring tremendous real world expenses. Brokers are wise to this strategy and will charge borrow rates which will eat up most of your profits. Rebalance too much, you will run into wash sales and your tax losses will be disallowed. Discount brokers will charge 6%+ on margin balances. There are commissions to consider too.

    All in all, you will be lucky to earn the risk free rate. Maintenance margin requirements on shorting 3x leveraged ETF's are 90%, so you can't even leverage up."

    ----> THIS
    Dec 19, 2014. 04:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Doomsayers Were Wrong In 2009: 4 Reasons Why They Are Wrong Now [View article]
    The oil doomsdayers were actually right in 2009. Oil dropped from over $140 to under $40. Anybody trying to catch that falling knife on the way down got slaughtered. I bet not many caught the actual bottom. So early to call a bottom here.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    If you read anything I've wrote you would know I'm the last person to follow technicals other than the basics like a move up on strong volume is bullish. Its always important though to know where a stock has come from to assess the potential downside if your buy thesis is wrong. In this case it is back to the pennies. Thats why I never buy stocks that have already risen 5000%. Sure I missed AAPL for that reason and many more but I've also avoided catastrophic losses. If you looked at the chart you will see that IMOS went as high as $60 before falling well under $1 a couple years later. So can that not happen again? I focus more on companies with positive cash flow and a pile of cash in the midst of a turnaround. Blindly following Seth Klarman's 13-D filings is a sure way to lose money. You don't know his motives or the full scope of his exposure here or anywhere else. He is a billionaire and one of the most successful investors of all time and one of the sharpest but he seems to attract a retail cult of traders. Problem is he is front running all of you. However as the market keeps going up every day none of this matters as this stock and all the others will inevitably go up also. We had this same argument on LNG and probably will also on KERX. No point repeating it. Enjoy the good life!
    Dec 19, 2014. 12:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    Since early 2013 has doubled and up 5000% in the past 5 years. Easy money has been made here. Reminds me of the fanboys on LNG. Another Seth Klarman cult stock.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:50 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    I can't believe you wrote thousands of words here without looking at the chart. It has indeed doubled in the past year. From $12 to $24. "Underperformance" on the other hand is debatable. We are talking about a low margin cyclical business with massive competitors. Any blip in the metrics and it will drop like a rock. These businesses are historically priced "cheap". The overwhelming bullishness from retail investors here is scary.
    Dec 19, 2014. 08:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChipMOS: Oligopoly At 4x EBITDA, 8x EPS With Pending Buyback - A Holiday Gift [View article]
    Everybody seems way too bullish on this one. Lets not forget that this rose from pennies only 5 years ago and has doubled already in the last year. Anybody getting in now is late.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:01 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman downgrades Verizon [View news story]
    Great post Eric. You should do an article explaining this simple concept that most fail to grasp.
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genworth: The Carnage Continues; Too Soon To Buy [View article]
    Whats interesting about Genworth is that it fell along with Radian and MGIC based on MI exposure fears. Now that is considered the attractive part of the business. Competition faded away and it became quite profitable. This can happen with LTC as theres only few players remaining in the business. I do agree with the author's thesis however of it being too early still. Particularly after today's AH news, I'll be looking to get bullish on this around $4, right where I made my buy last time on this name. Unfortunately sold too soon as it ran up so fast but still a nice score with little risk at the bottom.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: QuinStreet Earnings [View article]
    Was up 20% today. Not sure why?
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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