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Charles Moscoe

 
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  • TubeMogul IPO Creates Huge Valuation Gap With YuMe And Sets Up Compelling Pair Trade [View article]
    Revenue per customer is pretty misleading as the company added a ton of smaller customers YOY. So there is a ramp up period. That dilutes the value of the metric. Despite the revenue miss, I think it was a good quarter and sets the company up for a strong Q4 and 2015. Profitability next year is all but assured.
    Aug 13 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocket Fuel Running Out Of Gas [View article]
    Just an overreaction. It wont go down forever. Expect a bounce soon.
    Aug 13 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Vocera Before It Potentially Gets Acquired [View article]
    The thing is Vocera would be instantly profitable if acquired. The actual margins are high (over 60% in all categories) and the recurring revenue is tasty. The hospital supply companies that I mentioned are massive and have sales teams that are already in the hospital every day. Adding Vocera to their briefcase makes sense. Theres not much incremental cost for them to sell Vocera other than sales training.
    Aug 13 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Loony Is It Getting? Three Tales From The Deep [View article]
    Can't agree more Paulo. But I'm still about 65% long but will spare you my own bizarre reasoning why. I am short AMZN and TSLA however...
    Aug 13 02:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill: An Egregiously Overvalued Business [View article]
    I narrowed them down yesterday and actually removed BIDU, QIHU and CMG. Not because I think any of them aren't terribly overvalued but I think I have enough Chinese exposure with CTRP and I eliminated CMG because I want to focus on tech. Of course I still have LNG which isn't tech, either is SCTY (sorta tech), but both are just too crazy to ignore on the hype scale. I'm still about 65% net long however. I'm long mostly a number of ad techs right now plus a couple other small tech companies which I recently wrote about.
    Aug 13 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: A Stubborn Mark Zuckerberg? [View article]
    This wont end well.
    Aug 13 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Roundy's Could Turn Around Soon [View article]
    I sold out a couple days ago and booked a loss on it. I'm not a fan of the debt load. Figured (like everybody else...silly me) that Mariano's obvious strength would overcome the obvious weakness of the core business but it didn't. I didn't get a good vibe on the call from the CEO. He sort of has that attitude like its his business. I didn't like his tone with the analysts. He just doesn't strike me as being a shareholder friendly guy. Nothing to prove that, just rubbed me the wrong way.
    Aug 13 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Vocera Before It Potentially Gets Acquired [View article]
    Healthcare and education are 2 very weak sectors. I think education though is far worse right now. Other weak sectors are ad tech and anything to do with marketing to small business or lead generation. Out of all of these to rebound, I think the ad tech and the small business stuff will come back first. Healthcare is a bit of a toss up but my buy thesis here isn't so much predicated upon a turnaround in sales, more so that I expect an acquisition here. I don't buy solely on acquisition as you know but the cash is strong and sales aren't falling off a cliff. They are stabilizing. I think at a net $95M for the Vocera business it is just far too cheap. Thats where I'm at right now with it. If it runs back to about $12, I'll probably sell as the risk/reward will shift. But under $10, I think its a no brainer for those who can stomach it.
    Aug 13 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Vocera Before It Potentially Gets Acquired [View article]
    It has been a growth story for several years that has simply stalled this year based on weaker than forecasted domestic hospital spending. Thats why you can buy it for 50% off the recent IPO price. The International business is exceeding expectations. I think hospital spending can loosen, but I expect Vocera to be bought by then. And so do people in the industry that I have spoken to. It is really a niche story.
    Aug 13 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: TubeMogul IPO Price Reduction Changes Short Thesis [View article]
    YUME margins are stable and pretty good at mid to high 40s. Tremor margins have bottomed and should rebound in Q3. This was expected (at least by me as I posted it before). MM margins will probably decrease as the MMX exchange takes up a larger part of the business. I'm not too concerned about margins here and am looking more at the top line growth, bottom line, cash position and time to profitability. There was a good call about this recently at the Wedbush conference, where Todd Sloan the CFO of Tremor explains the company's thoughts on this. It made sense to me. A business that does $1B in sales with 10% margins is still better than one that does $100M with 50% margins, if both are profitable. The Comscore data has been rendered useless as it just has a single % for reach, not telling of much of anything anymore. You are right they are all different business though. I'm also long MRIN and FUEL. I'm in very good prices on all of these having bought the majority of my shares this week. I think the selling is overdone finally. We will see.
    Aug 12 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Vocera Before It Potentially Gets Acquired [View article]
    Thanks for reading. I am aware of the investor lawsuit and actually read it. In my experience these are generally settled for immaterial amounts. In fact most stocks I invest in have pending litigation as I like to buy stocks that have fallen significantly from the IPO price and those are what attracts the lawsuits. I don't see it as a concern.
    Aug 12 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ctrip Priced At Greater Than Perfect In An Inherently Risky Chinese Market [View article]
    Thanks for reading Ted and congrats for holding on so long to what is likely near the top. I was out ALOT sooner, but I'm always a pessimist! I'll make my money on the short side though.
    Aug 12 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muses And Other Sub-Cultures: Skullcandy, A 2015 Disruptor [View article]
    I guess I should have hung on. I figured it would drift back to the $6s again but looks like I missed it. I'm focusing more on tech and particularly internet stocks though.
    Aug 12 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong trends at Kate Spade [View news story]
    They are all playing this discounting game. When does the bottom fall out of KATE?
    Aug 12 09:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Is Serious About Unbundling [View article]
    Good observation but I disagree that becoming just a fragmented collection of apps is a good thing for FB.
    Aug 12 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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