Charles Petredis

Occidental Petroleum: Low-Cost U.S. Energy Producer

Good write up for its length, but not mentioning the geopolitical risks associated with their Libyan operations is not full disclosure.

Can Oil Go Even Higher?

Oil can go as high as as the dollar far, and thats before fundamentals even kick in, so the answer to your question is as high as the Federal Reserve lets it.

Bullish Crude Oil ETFs Showing Strength

The USO is completely broken, lagging the actual price of crude oil by over 40% since inception. Recommending this type of investment or believing that they work is nothing short of criminal.

Financial Crisis Could Cause Delayed Oil Price Spike

In your title change the word "could" to "is"

Gas/Oil Ratio: Flashing an Extreme

Just so you know, the historical ratio from 1980 to now is about 8.5:1 which accounts for the fact that the two commodities are not perfect substitutes. I agree that natural gas is definitely undervalued, but the short term fundamentals for natural gas are worse than that of crude oil because the U.S. is receiving a ton of LNG shipments. Over time this will move back to normal and both commodities will appreciate heavily.

Petrobras, BG Group Well Represented in Important New Oil Source

Until you get drillbits to stop melting when they reach deep levels of pre-salt formations, I can't have any faith in Petrobras when compared to their competitors. I'd much rather be long their servicers (RIG, NE, DO, etc) than with PBR especially since PBR isn't a company run for the shareholders but for the populous.

Anadarko: Helped by Oil's Rebound

I think this type of mid to large mid cap energy plays are the way to go over the course of the short, intermediate, and long term. I'm not positive I would pick Anadarko over all of their competitiors (namely Apache if you want a natural gas play with less geopolitical risk) but it is definitely not a bad company. Good write up.

What Use Is Economic History?

I think Bernanke realizes that this event is unique when compared to other financial crises. I doubt he is using historical examples as his only guide.

Why Is Oil Creeping Back Up?

As had been said many times, writing this without mentioning the relationship between commodities and the dollar is almost ludicrous.

Can Oil Go Even Higher?

Crude can continue to rise as long as the government is purposely hammering the dollar. Each and every bailout that puts more potential public dollars on the line is a chance for oil to rally much higher.

If you think oil is going down from here (which it sounds like you do from your article) I would look into XOM as they will more than likely fall the least in a down energy market.

Avoid (Natural) Gassy Stocks

The article is good but the only flaw with your thinking is the chart you have of the market v. natural gas. In this example of course natural gas will underperform during the time period as it is the traditional bottoming season for prices as weather warms up. This type of move (not the exact numbers but this direction) has been priced into the curve year after year and it should come as no shock to those familiar with the energy markets.

That being said, the Chesapeake call is a great one. The stock is still suffereing from CEO Aubrey McClendon's margin call debacle and on a NAV basis the shares are worth probably 40% less than what they should be even with natural gas at these levels.

The Final Hours of GM?

Couldn't be more true. Many years from now this will go into history books and students will wonder why the administration was able to get away with whatever they wanted to without any good economic proof.


On May 22 04:18 PM Karen Consumer wrote:

> "Remember, it is the bondholders who are supposed to be paid first
> during a bankruptcy, they should have the right to protect their
> property given the fifth amendment right to due process under the
> law."
>
> You remember that, I remember that, but the administration doesn't
> care about that. But whom they do care about seems to be in doubt.
>

National Bankruptcy? Not Quite Yet

Great article. I love how everyone is claiming that this is the fall of Rome. If the United States is going to go from AAA to AA, what is going to happen to the rest of the world and why would any single company stay AAA? The U.S. Dollar is backed by guns, missiles, battleships, nukes, etc. not by some commodity like gold that is worthless in terms of functionality. The Dollar is worth what the government says it is through fiscal and monetary policy and not anything else.

The Reflation Trade Portfolio

Having 10% direct exposure to materials and 20% direct exposure to gold (unless I am missing something) seems to be a heavy overweight of gold relative to the rest of the commodities. Any reason for this? Why be that heavily in gold when it has significantly outperformed the other commodities recently. Haven't you missed part of if not all of the boat?

Teen Retail: Sell in May, and Go Far, Far Away

Your comment is well taken, but the reason is not because they are in schools. Those teens in schools are not going to be included in a U3 teen unemployment figure that is being reported.


On May 25 10:21 AM Asian Tiger wrote:

> Harry Lacheen: are you in retail business? I doubted.
>
> The teens surely are higher in unemployment, they are in schools!
>
>
> They will pull out all the money they have in pockets and buy A&F
> to show off in front of their classmates and friends.