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Charles Putz  

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  • Oi: The Merger Is At A Stage Of Suspense [View article]
    Congrats Antonio, good article.
    But two questions:
    1 - I'm not even going to bother to ask how has PT hidden this, which is a scandal, but I would like to know how was it discovered? How did it become public?
    2 - What is this editor's note at the end? Less than $100 M???
    Jul 7, 2014. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gafisa: A Speculative Play On Brazilian Residential Property [View article]
    I'm native Portuguese speaker, also very interested in Corporate Governance, and was present at Gafisa's shareholders meeting. The link you just gave is quite good. If you need any assistance in interpreting what went on in Gafisa's proxy fight you may contact me.
    Congrats on your article.
    Aug 4, 2012. 06:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gafisa: A Speculative Play On Brazilian Residential Property [View article]
    I'm surprised nobody commented that Gafisa faced recently the first proxy fight in Brazil. There was a dispute during the shareholders meeting and shareholders not supporting current management elected 4 out of 9 board members. Had they elected 5, probably most of management would have changed. Interesting detail: they had sufficient votes to elect 7 board members, but only after the vote counting was that known, and not to risk not electing anyone, they chose to focus votes on 4 members.
    How can something like that impact the company?
    What to expect in the next board renewal?
    Aug 3, 2012. 05:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Petrobras Turn Around On Brazilian Fuel Price Increase [View article]
    As it turned out, Petrobras fell the day after the price increase was announced. One could say that (1) the market had already anticipated the announcement - the shares had risen the prior days - and (2) the market understood that the price increase wasn't enough. Perhaps more important, was that Petrobras announced its updated business plan, and the new production levels were a deception.
    Jun 26, 2012. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Petrobras Turn Around On Brazilian Fuel Price Increase [View article]
    I understand this article was published based on Thursday's news. Friday evening Petrobras announced the Gov has authorized them to increase on Monday the price of Gasoline by 7.83% and Diesel by 3.94%. To avoid inflation the Gov will compensate with reduction of CIDE, a tax on fuels.
    I expect Petrobras' shares should get a boost with this, but still remain "cheap" relative to its potential. Trouble is, with Gov interference, the company may never fully realize its potential.
    Jun 23, 2012. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazilian Steelmaker Drops 15% After Earnings: Time To Buy? [View article]
    "weakening Chinese demand for steel has hurt iron ore prices, which naturally adversely affects the bottom line of steel companies." is a strange phrase. Weakening demand for steel from anyone is bad for steel producers, however, the fact that it "hurts iron ore prices" should be good for MOST steel producers. Not for SID, which is verticalized, currently obtaining most of their profit from iron ore.
    Actually SID isn't a steel producer, SID is a conglomerate operating in related industries which include steel, iron ore, cement, logistics and energy.
    I'm not sure if it's time to buy now, but if it reaches its lows of 2008, I'll certainly buy.
    Disclosure: from 2007 to 2011 I was a Corporate Executive of SID and CEO of their mining JV NAMISA in 2009 and 2010.
    May 17, 2012. 10:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Your Portfolio Need An India ETF? [View article]
    I agree that for the long term investor who still doesn't have a position in India, it is past time to start a small position.
    But given all of India's problems, mainly its high corruption, it still isn't time to have a large position. To increase to a larger position I recommend keeping an eye on fertility rates and corruption indices.
    For those who want to read more about this, I suggest my article:
    Apr 8, 2012. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In India: The Demographic Bonus Will Play A Big Role [View article]
    VIV might be more attractive. Only carries Brazil, not Europe with Spain. Also, now that Telefonica merged in Brazil their mobile and fixed operations, there may be room for improvement.
    Apr 2, 2012. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In India: The Demographic Bonus Will Play A Big Role [View article]
    I'm not following TEF very closely lately. I would be in doubt about investing in them or directly on their Brazilian subsidiary VIV, where, I should disclose, I have a small position.
    Apr 2, 2012. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In India: The Demographic Bonus Will Play A Big Role [View article]
    I don't know much about TEVA, but from what I know, I admire them. I heard from friends in India that some large companies in India can afford to do business without getting involved in corruption, due to their size, influence, contacts... It would be more difficult, which shouldn't mean impossible, for a foreign company or a mid sized company.
    Apr 2, 2012. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Iron Ore Margins Can't Last [View article]

    Only time will tell if you're right. Why may you be wrong:
    - the barriers for entry as pointed out by several above are greater than you mention, AND both capex and opex for additional production is much higher than for current volumes. Expansion of current mines and new mines will not only take long, but have much higher production costs.
    - China is reducing its growth to lower but still very high levels, and focusing its growth more in the domestic market, producing cars, refrigerators, stoves and other consumer durables all demanding more steel than China's traditional export products.
    - China, as well as India and most of the rest of the developing world are going through an urbanization process which itself consumes a lot of steel, regardless of any short term bubble in housing prices.

    Disclosure: I'm a board member of Manabi, a non-traded Iron Ore company in Brazil, and have a small position in Vale.
    Mar 19, 2012. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Embraer An Emerging Defense Industry Leader? [View article]
    It is a prosecutor, not Brazil, who is suing Chevron (CVX), and proposing they should be banned from exploring oil in Brazil. Something normal in a democratic country after an oil spill. Probably a judge will decide that penalty is too high... Why would someone think that is such a big deal and no longer want to invest in Brazil, even before any legal decision is reached?
    It seems to me like you may be missing a great opportunity.

    I don't have any position in Embraer.
    Dec 18, 2011. 03:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Petrobras Keeps Its Promises, Investors Will Be Rewarded Handsomely [View article]
    I think that the point made wasn't necessarily related to corruption. The Gov may want to do what they "understand is better for the country" rather than better for the company. PBR has often been forced to sell oil derivatives in Brazil below Intl prices. This increases the risk of investing in the Co. But I don't see that risk as any bigger than that faced by other majors which invest internationally. I'd say the political risk in Brazil is much smaller than that of most oil producing countries, and already factored in the the share prices.
    I'm long in PBR, with a small position, more for the potential than for the dividends.
    Dec 11, 2011. 12:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • So, Are Commodities Really In A Bubble? [View article]
    Very good article, although I would have cut off the long intro, which seems unrelated.
    “But wait, analyzing the current value of a commodity with respect to its supply and demand is already done through the mechanism of price discovery. In transparent markets, it is hard to argue that any particular price represents in itself a ‘bubble’ or ‘deep value.’”
    However, short term excess of supply or demand for fairly inelastic commodities can provoke huge price fluctuations. If the excess demand isn’t big, and isn’t long term, it has the characteristics and effects of a bubble. So what difference does it make if it is or not a bubble? You may just treat is as one.
    As far as gold goes, I liked the conclusion of a friend who said “sure gold is a bubble, but I’m not going to fight a 3000 year old bubble!”.
    Oct 21, 2011. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Riversdale's Takeover Battle: Win/Win for Tata Steel [View article]
    You mentioned that CSN (SID) is an important shareholder, but you omitted the info that SID has several billion $ in cash.
    That is public info. I can't comment more, since I work for SID group, and we are silent on this matter.
    Dec 8, 2010. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment