True Major Miner. There is so much more to this gold story that will take place over the next few years. I was just pointing out that most of these gold bears had no predictions or guts when it actually mattered -- before the fall...they simply join the bandwagon after everyone has already accepted that gold is falling.
It's similar to those who said they "love gold" when it hit $1400+ on the way up, when in fact they missed the $1000+ move starting in 1999.
2012 Review: Why Stocks Rose, Where I Was Wrong And What I Would Do Different [View article]
Great article James! I hope the 2012 rally hasn't dissuaded you from being a bear. If anything, like you said, we're at the same binary position in the economy and the market (same old issues and uncertainties), but this time stocks are even higher! We'll know relatively soon hopefully if the market can continue the rally and stay above all-time highs, or whether all-time highs will prove to be a very strong overhead resistance on our way back down.
Molycorp (MCP -4.4%) resumes trading after a brief halt, as an SEC filing discloses an SEC investigation regarding the accuracy of disclosures of certain sales of stock by officers, directors and private equity firms, as well as certain corporate acquisitions during 2011. [View news story]
How Apple's Size Limits Its Valuation [View article]
Interesting point that funds are allocating less than the NASDAQ 100 weighting, but most funds track the S&P500 (not the Nasdaq 100) so they actually have a HIGHER allocation than the overall market.
If funds were to allocate based on market, they should allocate closer to 5%
QE is supposed to boost inflation and gold prices, but deflationary forces and a potential recession could lead to falling gold prices, as commodity prices fall -- as they did in 2008.
Thanks for the CP hat-tip. Market looks dangerous -- from a fundamental, technical, and behavioral point of view.
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
It's probably not exactly 50-50, but I think it's a toss up (even in Bernanke's mind).
This QE was announced at a market top, not a bottom like for QE1 and QE2 -- so the danger and downside are much greater.
Yes, QE1 and 2 worked in pumping markets...but it all relies on QE3 now -- if it doesn't start to work and boost the economy, it'll be considered a failure.
Still possible that QE3 will work, but we'll see. I don't think anyone really knows the answer.
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
If we have a double-dip recession then deflationary pressures will be greater than in 2007-2008. Plus, gold has extended its run much more since then, the bubble has inflated much more, and the downside is much bigger now. The bottom in 1999-2001 was $250, so I don't think a $700 target is unreasonable if my scenarios play out.
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
I've publicly (on CNBC) claimed that I expect the $700 target to be reached within 5 years. The last bear market in gold (from 1980 to 1999) lasted 19 years, so a long bear market is not out of the picture. However, as you already know, the Fed and central banks around the world are doing everything they can to delay recessions or support economies by printing more money. We are yet to see if this strategy will work, but I expect gold to fall regardless. We are still under the $1900+ peak in September 2011, and even if we see a new high - the price will fall sharply and lose MANY investors and gold bugs a lot of money. I did expect the markets to make a decision a bit sooner than they have (and there's still many risks and unsolved problems left to be resolved), but I still stand by my claims that gold is in a bubble and will burst. If the economy improves and stocks keep rising, people will get out of gold and look for other ways to make money (no longer the need for the "fear hedge" if we recover). On the other hand, if the economy gets much worse and stocks fall, I expect the deflationary pressures to drag gold down with them (asset prices for commodities and others fall during recessions -- as gold did in 2008).
Yes, perhaps it's taking longer than most have expected, but gold is to be avoided. My earlier calls were also a warning to investors --- it's the average investor that gets crushed by getting in near the top.
The Federal Reserve Controls Gold, Oil, & The Dollar Value [View instapost]
I definitely know what you're talking about! They have done that to me too, coming up with "reasons" why certain articles don't fit their criteria. Most of the time it's just excuses because they refuse to post articles that don't fit their point of view or that may be too contrarian. They definitely play favorites. Keep doing your thing though, and hopefully when they see articles they like they'll publish them. Good luck
A deal by General Motors (GM -0.5%) to sponsor soccer juggernaut Manchester United will include seeing brand Chevrolet displayed front and center on the team's jerseys starting in the 2014/2015 season. The club has only seen four other jersey sponsors in its storied history covering 134 years. [View news story]
Weird that a top US automaker will be front and center on the UK's biggest sports franchise?
Gold Going To $500? [View article]
If some of the gold bugs listened to the warnings, they would have saved thousands, millions, or (in Paulson's case) billions of dollars.
And those that listened to my shorting strategies are up a few hundred percent right now. Me included :)
You still have the chance to do the same, but maybe wait for a bounce.
Gold Going To $500? [View article]
There is so much more to this gold story that will take place over the next few years.
I was just pointing out that most of these gold bears had no predictions or guts when it actually mattered -- before the fall...they simply join the bandwagon after everyone has already accepted that gold is falling.
It's similar to those who said they "love gold" when it hit $1400+ on the way up, when in fact they missed the $1000+ move starting in 1999.
Gold Going To $500? [View article]
Then, AFTER gold started falling, everyone came out with "brave" calls that it would fall to $1000, $800, and now $500.
http://amzn.to/13zgS2D
Visualizing Bob Farrell's 10 Rules [View article]
2012 Review: Why Stocks Rose, Where I Was Wrong And What I Would Do Different [View article]
I hope the 2012 rally hasn't dissuaded you from being a bear. If anything, like you said, we're at the same binary position in the economy and the market (same old issues and uncertainties), but this time stocks are even higher!
We'll know relatively soon hopefully if the market can continue the rally and stay above all-time highs, or whether all-time highs will prove to be a very strong overhead resistance on our way back down.
Molycorp (MCP -4.4%) resumes trading after a brief halt, as an SEC filing discloses an SEC investigation regarding the accuracy of disclosures of certain sales of stock by officers, directors and private equity firms, as well as certain corporate acquisitions during 2011. [View news story]
How Apple's Size Limits Its Valuation [View article]
If funds were to allocate based on market, they should allocate closer to 5%
Is It Time To Avoid The Crowd? [View article]
Thanks for the CP hat-tip.
Market looks dangerous -- from a fundamental, technical, and behavioral point of view.
Is It Time To Avoid The Crowd? [View article]
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
This QE was announced at a market top, not a bottom like for QE1 and QE2 -- so the danger and downside are much greater.
Yes, QE1 and 2 worked in pumping markets...but it all relies on QE3 now -- if it doesn't start to work and boost the economy, it'll be considered a failure.
Still possible that QE3 will work, but we'll see. I don't think anyone really knows the answer.
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
Plus, gold has extended its run much more since then, the bubble has inflated much more, and the downside is much bigger now. The bottom in 1999-2001 was $250, so I don't think a $700 target is unreasonable if my scenarios play out.
The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
However, as you already know, the Fed and central banks around the world are doing everything they can to delay recessions or support economies by printing more money. We are yet to see if this strategy will work, but I expect gold to fall regardless.
We are still under the $1900+ peak in September 2011, and even if we see a new high - the price will fall sharply and lose MANY investors and gold bugs a lot of money.
I did expect the markets to make a decision a bit sooner than they have (and there's still many risks and unsolved problems left to be resolved), but I still stand by my claims that gold is in a bubble and will burst.
If the economy improves and stocks keep rising, people will get out of gold and look for other ways to make money (no longer the need for the "fear hedge" if we recover).
On the other hand, if the economy gets much worse and stocks fall, I expect the deflationary pressures to drag gold down with them (asset prices for commodities and others fall during recessions -- as gold did in 2008).
Yes, perhaps it's taking longer than most have expected, but gold is to be avoided. My earlier calls were also a warning to investors --- it's the average investor that gets crushed by getting in near the top.
Silicon Image (SIMG): Q2 EPS of $0.05 beats by $0.02. Revenue of $63.8M (+19% Y/Y) beats by $3.4M. Shares +21.4% AH. (PR) [View news story]
Skip to 7:44
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The Federal Reserve Controls Gold, Oil, & The Dollar Value [View instapost]
They definitely play favorites. Keep doing your thing though, and hopefully when they see articles they like they'll publish them.
Good luck
A deal by General Motors (GM -0.5%) to sponsor soccer juggernaut Manchester United will include seeing brand Chevrolet displayed front and center on the team's jerseys starting in the 2014/2015 season. The club has only seen four other jersey sponsors in its storied history covering 134 years. [View news story]