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  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    I will update my profile just for you.
    Mar 30, 2011. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    well, i completed my pursuit in March, i.e. Match Day, and recently signed a contract... you can make sense of it.
    Mar 30, 2011. 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    I finish med school in June, and then going to residency... so in three months I will be a physician
    Mar 30, 2011. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    I'm not talking about the biobuck$ 115 million, I'm taking about milestones for regulatory approval.

    I guess u wish you were in $depo
    Mar 30, 2011. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    I have to commend gekkowire, I have to admit his coverage of $xnpt is thorough
    Mar 30, 2011. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trading XenoPort's PDUFA Event [View article]
    This trade is basically a combination of a (12 contract, 8/9 strike) Call spread and a (22 spread, 8/10/12 strike) Butterfly. First, if price is around $10 by expiration, I would leave the 12 contract 8/9 strike Call spread alone (it will automatically close out by the broker). Next i would likely close out the front end of the butterfly, that is, sell the remaining 22 8 strike Calls and buy back the 44 10 strike Calls AT THE SAME TIME (avoid legging out with naked Calls -- far too risky, you never know what is going to happen). Because you note that the price is $10, this creates a risk that the sold Calls will expire in the money -- i prefer to get rid of this risk; also, at that point in the trade, the options will most likely be trading near intrinsic so the slippage shouldn't be that great. Finally, i would simply let the 12 strike Calls expire worthless (close to where they would be trading -- why waste the commission?). Hope that helps. If not, send me a message on twitter: biotechtraderHB
    Mar 30, 2011. 09:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    dugafish- shorts too tight?

    www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...
    Mar 29, 2011. 07:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    that was funny
    Mar 29, 2011. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    Wouldn't hold my breath on Serada- already failed two prior PIIIs. Also, efficacy in promising PII only similar to low dose SSRI already in use.

    Jason- I realize Lyrica has tons of sales, but its scripts are trending down while gabapentin soaring.

    I imagine docs will start patient on gaba, walk him up to MTD

    JMHO
    Mar 29, 2011. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    "The reason I didn't ask that is that it's irrelevant. "

    "but competing with generics will not be easy (which could also have contributed to ABT not wanting to spend further on it)."

    you say competing against generics is a reasons why ABT didnt want to spend further, then you think that it's irrelevant to ask: how many blockbusters are there that have generics for the same indication, or same class?

    no offense, but your question is irrelevant.

    "I assume you, also, can't provide an example of a drug that was given back to a smaller company that ended up being commercially meaningful?"
    Mar 29, 2011. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    Why wont you ask the question: how many blockbusters are there that have generics for the same indication, or same class?

    Answer: many

    Your question, about how many drugs have been handed back? Well, it's not like ABT had a drug to give back, they had an indication (PHN/DPN), the rest of the "drug" was DEPO's. Usually in situations where a company doesn't want a drug, they try to cut a third party deal. Anybody that has followed pharma knows that's difficult. Given Depo's strong position, they held all non-pain indications, they held ROW rights, I would wager that making a third party deal was a tad difficult. Wouldn't you say?

    The question that you should be asking, is how many times a big pharma partners has inherited a poor contract, that allows them to market a drug only for certain indications, and only in the US... then the company experiences a huge re-org eliminating most of the subsidiary that partnered the drug in the first place, and eliminates most of the reps would have detailed the drug.... thats a complicated questions but you get the point
    Mar 29, 2011. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look at Immunogen Beyond the T-DM1 Setback [View article]
    Nice overview
    Mar 28, 2011. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    Jason,

    I have to start of by saying that I think your coverage of DEPO is top-notch.

    I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Gralise has demonstrated a superior label compared to Horizant, and moving forward I wouldn't expect anything different.

    I have a few points to make:
    You can target about 50% of the RLS market by detailing to high volume neurology/psychiatrist... specialist ... which is a group of about 18k physicians. I wouldn't totally agree with the point that RLS is a Primary Care pathology. I'm certain that GSK will be targeting neurologists as well.

    With regards to the titration pack, GSK could probably titrate patients in 3 weeks and maybe even force titrate in two weeks (although they run the risk of higher AE)... point being, they could come up with a 3 week titration pack just the same Gralise has a two week pack.

    All in all, I think that Depomed wins out in the long run... and are we 100% certain that GSK/XNPT will pursue PHN/DPN? The language in the press release & quarterly indicated that, at least, GSK would not pursue unless they believe they have a superiority claim. Maybe I'm not reading it correctly?

    All in all, I think GSK is the 800 pound gorilla in the field. They have an ongoing relationship with neuro/pcp and they are eager to replace requip. I think GSK is hungry to push a product, and I believe that their profound marketing engine makes Horizant somewhat (only somewhat) relevant.

    Comparing the drugs on their own merits, which is what you did... I would agree with your argument, Gralise has nothing to lose. But with off-label sales such a huge portion of the potential, marketing becomes a real issue.

    Marketing (and label expansion) is how Pfizer carved a market for Lyrica in the first place!

    I think, the argument of Gralise vs. Horizant will become more relevant (not to say it's irrelevant now) when Depomed signs a partner and after Horizant is rejected/approved.

    If Horizant is rejected, I would be more bullish DEPO. If Horizant is approved and DEPO signs a respectable partner, I would be more bullish DEPO.

    Until Horizant PDUFA or DEPO partnership announcement, I think that the discussion is somewhat limited.

    I think the best play here is straddle XNPT, and buy/hold DEPO

    Warm Regards,
    Tro
    Mar 28, 2011. 04:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potential Competition Between Depomed and XenoPort: What Shareholders Should Consider [View article]
    A lot of Lyrica resistance may be due to epilepsy sales- docs may not want to switch to generic.
    What's Lyrica sale in PHN alone?
    You're probably right Horizant won't dent Gralise- first gotta get approved! But I'm still concerned generic competition for Gralise.
    Mar 28, 2011. 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish on Trius Therapeutics [View article]
    $CBST should put that bucket of cash to work...
    Mar 24, 2011. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
388 Comments
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