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  • Depomed: Another License Deal, Another Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I expect $200 million in revenue in 2014. Standard M&A multiple of 3-4x sales, pegs the company at $600-$800 million market cap.

    That's a significant premium waiting to be unlocked.

    I think you draw parallels to SNTS in 2011. It found a narrow trading range, essentially bottomed out. Then the company refocused it's effort and allowed its sales revenue to mature via persistence detailing efforts and price increases. The stock is trading at a 100% premium to it's 2011 average price.

    If you are looking for a catalyst that will prop the PPS, I dont think you'll find one. Serada is a gamble at best, and an information hunt most probably. But the true PPS increase will be sales revenue increase.

    Remember that every dollar increase in sales, is 3-4 dollars in valuation.
    Aug 31, 2012. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Depomed: Another License Deal, Another Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I will be happy to take any questions or comments.
    Aug 29, 2012. 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Downside Expected In Peregrine Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Peregrine's continual touting of Bavituximab as being promising in HepC are a running joke. Until Peregrine post EVR and SVR data all of their claims are caveat emptor
    Aug 27, 2012. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Downside Expected In Peregrine Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    There is nothing wrong with our disclosures. At the time the original article was published, no members had position. However, since redistribution of our content on Seeking Alpha, some members have.
    Aug 27, 2012. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    If management is so confident in the future of the company, we'll see if they continue to buy thru their own ATM.
    Aug 16, 2012. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    Discovery Group reports 7.5% stake in Horizon Pharma

    You will notice no one on their team has any biotech/pharma experience or background.
    Aug 15, 2012. 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Catching Up With Celldex Therapeutics [View article]
    Although, we have respect for some of your previous work, this piece seems a little off-color and lacks any real analysis. We suggest reading a piece with a detailed analysis of CDX-011.

    We vehemently disagree with your analysis for several reasons

    Quote-- "As for the ugly, most of this involves fairly typical issues for experimental cancer drugs. The sample set (the number of patients included) was small and there are still a lot of unknowns (durability of response, etc.). Safety may also be a concern - there was a high incidence of rash, as well as elevated occurrences of peripheral neuropathy and vomiting."

    1- We addressed the durability of response question in our piece and so did the CMO/ lead PI. Did you listen to the conference call? Seems like you may have missed their explanation and the lead PI's take on this.

    2- You completely disregard the high GPNMB group.

    3- Your market estimates are far too low for the triple-negative segment of breast cancer. The drug will eventually be tested in 1st/2nd/3rd line etc.

    4- Rash(38%), peripheral neuropathy(18%) and vomiting(16%) are not at levels one need worry about. There were no grade 3/4 events of these AEs were even reported.

    Compare this to Herceptin or Perjeta

    Herceptin: 23%,
    Herceptin+Paclitaxel: 37%,
    Paclitaxel: 28%
    Herceptin+Docetaxel: 23.9%
    Herceptin+Perjeta+Doce... 24.1%

    Herceptin: 18%,
    Herceptin+Paclitaxel: 38%,
    Paclitaxel: 18%
    Herceptin+Docetaxel: 24.2%
    Herceptin+Perjeta+Doce... 33.7%

    Peripheral Neuropathy
    Herceptin: 2%,
    Herceptin+Paclitaxel: 23%,
    Paclitaxel: 16%
    Herceptin+Docetaxel: 32.4%
    Herceptin+Perjeta+Doce... 33.8%
    Aug 15, 2012. 02:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    1- Do you believe Horizon's IP will be able to stop someone from making generics of their products?

    2- That $81M estimate is based on analyst projections they have compiled, not their opinion.

    3- Rayos will be a failure largely because their label stinks. Horizon can NOT make any direct comparisons between Rayos and IR prednisone, in terms of efficacy or safety. Sales reps will have nothing to convince prescribers that it is better than IR prednisone.

    4- I also suggest reading up on what some employees and industry folks think of Horizon. They've posted about the many issues Horizon has faced and don't foresee a big change.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    Please take a moment to consider our comments about physicians and pharmacists seriously. In the vast majority of patients, they see no value in prescribing DUEXIS or RAYOS for patients. See here for more if you don't believe us

    Cowen just says what Horizon wants to hear so that they get their banking business. Funny how Cowen has a large "buy" rating and they are the sole bookrunners for last night's $75 million ATM(representing 50% of the current marketcap).
    Aug 15, 2012. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    - Have you actually talked to a physician about either DUEXIS or RAYOS? No one is impressed by them or finds them cost-effective.

    - Given the CEO's past experience, you think he would have had a better vision for launching pharmaceutical products. However, you fail to realize that previous work at an extremely large pharmaceutical company with vast resources does NOT translate into success with a small company with few resources. The successful launch of HUMIRA can NOT be attribute to Horizon's CEO solely just based on the sheer size of Abbott. Additionally, you should consider that given his familiarity with launching products, they would have done better with managed care? They've completely failed in managed care.

    - RAYOS will not be a big product in the US if it is priced like the UK, 20X the generics cost. We can guarantee that.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    That's great to hear from a CEO who has delivered nothing but poor sales.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    @skabba - You realize all UK agencies have deemed Lodotra as the lowest priority to reimburse? Below is an actual review of it.

    "Key Points considered:
    - Lodotra® treatment does not have significant benefits over immediate release
    prednisolone. 28 days treatment with 5mg Lodotra® is more than 20 times the
    cost of uncoated IR prednisolone 5mg.
    - There are concerns over gastrointestinal safety.
    - Not considered to be cost effective."

    You also fail to realize that generics will challenge LODOTRA and RAYOS. Several generics are already challenging DUEXIS in the US.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Substantial Potential In Celldex Therapeutics [View article]
    Correct, thanks for catching that.
    Aug 10, 2012. 12:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Celgene's CVR For Abraxis [View article]
    Sorry, but *your* calculations are a bit off. Read the filings.

    "Parent and Merger Sub, by reason of the execution and delivery of the Voting Agreement, may be deemed to have shared voting power with the Committed Stockholders with respect to (and therefore beneficially own within the meaning of Rule 13d-3 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act")) an aggregate of 33,215,612 Shares (comprised of (i) 33,186,067 issued and outstanding Shares and (ii) vested options to purchase 29,545 Shares (which, upon issuance, will become New Shares as defined in the Voting Agreement), representing approximately 82% of Abraxis' issued and outstanding Shares (assuming 40,403,163 Shares issued and outstanding as of June 25, 2010, as represented by Abraxis in the Merger Agreement). Neither Parent nor Merger Sub have any pecuniary interest in the Shares and therefore do not have beneficial ownership of any Shares within the meaning of Rule 16a-1(a)(2) of the Exchange Act."
    Aug 7, 2012. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cornerstone Therapeutics - What Investors Need To Know Before FDA Advisory Meeting [View article]
    Very nice article. Highlights some more subtle points about the indication and lack of data. CRTX is hiding the data for a reason.

    We also highlight many of the red flags we posted on our blog. As we see it, Cardiokine would have never been sold for so little($1M!) if the drug were truly a blockbuster like CRTX would want investors to believe. We also don't believe the trials are adequately powered either.
    Aug 7, 2012. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment