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  • An Analysis Of Celgene's CVR For Abraxis [View article]
    The pancreatic trial reads out by end of year or early next year. 8 month priority review(if the data is positive), puts Abraxane approved for pancreatic cancer late 2013. The melanoma trial should also read out by end of the year.

    http://bit.ly/MFMeux

    Only thing that could potentially hold it up is the FDA.
    Aug 4, 2012. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Analysis Of Celgene's CVR For Abraxis [View article]
    Agree, Abraxane has been a big bust for Celgene. The recent breast cancer study presented at ASCO 2012 won't help their case either. Although, this trial wasn't at the approved dosing.

    We believe it will be approved in NSCLC, but they won't get any PFS advantage claim and actually doubt the OS subset makes in the label.

    Several oncology centers are already using Gem+Abraxane off-label given the success they saw in that trial and have had good results with it. FOLFIRINOX just isnt tolerable, no QoL. We believe the trial will show an OS advantage.
    Aug 4, 2012. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArQule Dips, But Not Necessarily A Bargain [View article]
    Once again, I like your analysis. I was not initially convinced by the NSCLC data, but a lot has happenned since then. It appears to be efficacious in CRC and HCC, with activity both as monotherapy and combo, giving confidence 197 is a real drug and increased optimism in NSCLC. I also doubt a trial stoppage on efficacy is likely at the interim.

    Though 2nd line HCC may be small, 197 is also in P2 in combo w/ nexavar in 1st line- a close to 1B market.

    Haven't looked closely at CRC. But that's three indications in at least P2. $8 not too bad, though now you have to account for the dilution.
    Apr 10, 2012. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Human Genome End Up Blazing A Trail For Others? [View article]
    Nicely written
    Apr 9, 2012. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Big Pharma Doesn't Really Need (Or Even Want) A Pipeline [View article]
    tedious
    Jan 17, 2012. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Yeah, shouldn't have thrown the RA groups in there- diff pt pop, lower doses. It's plausible, I would just like to hear it from someone other than tefferi.

    Don't really follow Galapagos, starting to look. Great heritage- Crucell/Tibotech. Really interesting cmpd, wholly owned. Wish it was listed here. Annoying. Wish they would spin off their services division.

    You already seem to do this full time...
    Nov 25, 2011. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Maybe I am reading it differently from you. I don't like thie Tefferi guy and don't trust anything coming out of him.
    Why does it seem like the only one reporting a "cytokine rebound" comes from papers he authors? And though he suggests it is due to JAK1 inhibition, he doesn't implicate CYT387? Also, wouldn' the PFE JAK inhibitor and now, Galapagos JAK1 inhibitor have experience with this phenomenom?
    He cites 5 case studies out of about 50 Phase 1/2 patients to demonstrate this effect. Interestingly, 3 of the 5 patients go on to additional JAK inhibitor (unspecified) therapy after rux. Hmm...

    In any case, I feel the paper may have the effect of giving docs hesitance in prescribing rux out of a fear of dangerous withdrawal symptoms.

    On a positive note, the case studies demonstrate rux can have an effect lasting up to 3 years.

    And agree, I do find YMI a bit difficult to trust. If mgmt better, it'd be a much better investment.
    Nov 25, 2011. 01:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    JPG,
    Yeah, saw the letter and his follow up article only the Mayo Clinic would publish: http://bit.ly/s5QhEv
    They've also taken their "case" to youtube.
    My feeling is Tefferi and Pardanani are too close to YMI. May not be financial, but perhaps personally driven.
    The pieces don't jibe with Tefferi's previous co-authored study of the INCY cmpd.
    IMO, his behavior makes both the Mayo Clinic and YMI look bad. I don't have anything against YMI, actually currently long the stock.
    Nov 24, 2011. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Where to start jasandresen1?
    Stanford, let's see, ten P3 pts, wow, that'll tell you a whole lot.
    Feel better for short periods- like a year or more? Compared to an immunosuppressive chemo like Hyrdroxyurea?
    Whatever, not worth any more time.
    Nov 24, 2011. 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Thanks JP!
    Nov 16, 2011. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    I thought I had fixed that. thanks for catching the mistake. I hadn't finished the sentence because looking for confirmation; initially saw peak at 2015, but seemed too early.

    Agree about YMI. Find it strange abstract provided no data on anemia (too good can't print it!!!???), relegated to poster, no oral presentation. Also, once a day so good they're now gonna complement it with BID dosing??
    ASCO: transfusion independence, but heme same?
    Lots of questions
    Nov 16, 2011. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Herememoney,

    Of course there is no complete certainty in drug approval, but IMO, ruxolitinib is as close as it gets.

    Best of luck,

    Jason
    Nov 15, 2011. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Thanks Tiger- I'm not exactly sure where the typo is, could you please clarify?

    I think the weakness is a result of several things:
    1. the market is very volatile right now
    2. investors are concerned sales will be lower than management projections
    3. Results are coming out for competitor YMI at ASH, which if good, may give its compound an advantage over Ruxolitinib
    4. A couple papers from a couple well known Mayo Clinic researchers have cast concern over the safety and efficacy of Ruxolitinib

    Approval obviously will be important but expected. A broad label, as always has the potential to boost sales.
    ASH will be a major event as everyone watches YMI and INCY gets a chance to refute claims from the Mayo Clinic folk
    Nov 14, 2011. 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Depomed Plunges After Serada Results: Still An Attractive Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I think you raise several interesting points.

    I am preparing a piece on DEPO that communicates the realities behind launching Gralise in the current landscape. I think it will be truly eye opening to investors and analysts alike.

    I think that essentially these prices, the overall skepticism is appropriately priced in.

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor (yet), so I cannot tell you what to to do with your Depomed positions.

    I can relay what I did. I sold my shares in the high 6's, played the Serada trial results with some options, and began accumulating shares in the AH in the low 4's. I will continue to accumulate below 5 and will purchase up to about 5-10% of my total portfolio.

    I believe Gralise can achieve an annualized run-rate of $200million within 3 years. The average M&A valuation for small-mid pharma has been between 3-4x sales.

    At a current market cap of $150 million above cash & with $30 million in Glumetza revenue coming in to DEPO this year ... I would argue that Gralise is currently valued to achieve 20-50million sales, thus IMO represents an opportunity. Forget about all the hype, partnerships, pipeline (if one still exists), and Serada application. Just try to come up with a value for Gralise and Glumetza & play with the numbers yourself. The company is trading at $150 million above cash.

    I think the skepticism was due, in the 9-10's when it would have been easy to argue that modest gralise success was correctly valued. But the current prices seem to properly discount any potential launch issues. Since I believe only 20-50 million in peak gralise sales are currently valued in the PPS, and I believe the peaks sales are probably 200-300 million, this presents the opportunity for me.

    Good luck and thanks for the discussion.
    Oct 17, 2011. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Depomed Plunges After Serada Results: Still An Attractive Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Internal Medicine is my specialty, and possibly sports medicine thereafter. I'll keep you posted.

    If you want to know more about me, feel free to use SA to message me, or the contact form from my website.
    Oct 16, 2011. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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