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  • What's Left For Threshold? Not Much [View article]
    Abraxane plus TH-302 would not be a tolerable combination. Both would have to be at doses that are likely sub-therapeutic.

    Consider that TH-302 has little value as monotherapy, something that's always a concern going forward.
    Oct 24, 2012. 09:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Downside Expected In Peregrine Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    To all of those that criticized our article for being "wrong", it looks like today's news proves us right. Peregrine shares are now trading around $0.80.
    Sep 24, 2012. 08:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Downside Expected In Peregrine Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    There is nothing wrong with our disclosures. At the time the original article was published, no members had position. However, since redistribution of our content on Seeking Alpha, some members have.
    Aug 27, 2012. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Horizon Pharma's Unsustainable Business Model [View article]
    - Have you actually talked to a physician about either DUEXIS or RAYOS? No one is impressed by them or finds them cost-effective.

    - Given the CEO's past experience, you think he would have had a better vision for launching pharmaceutical products. However, you fail to realize that previous work at an extremely large pharmaceutical company with vast resources does NOT translate into success with a small company with few resources. The successful launch of HUMIRA can NOT be attribute to Horizon's CEO solely just based on the sheer size of Abbott. Additionally, you should consider that given his familiarity with launching products, they would have done better with managed care? They've completely failed in managed care.

    - RAYOS will not be a big product in the US if it is priced like the UK, 20X the generics cost. We can guarantee that.
    Aug 15, 2012. 01:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Incyte JAK Inhibitor Awaits Certain Approval [View article]
    Where to start jasandresen1?
    Stanford, let's see, ten P3 pts, wow, that'll tell you a whole lot.
    Feel better for short periods- like a year or more? Compared to an immunosuppressive chemo like Hyrdroxyurea?
    Whatever, not worth any more time.
    Nov 24, 2011. 01:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Keryx Biopharmaceuticals vs. AEterna Zentaris [View article]
    Why didn't you follow your own advise?
    Jun 9, 2011. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Neoprobe: Follow-Up on ASCO, Citizen Petition and Readers' Comments [View article]
    Whether there be some errors here or there, this article allows longs to see things from another perspective. Avoid tunnel vision/groupthink
    Jun 9, 2011. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avanir Pharmaceuticals: Compelling Short Sale Opportunity [View article]
    If I believed your logic that the use patent could easily be invalidated, then I would agree with you. As it stands, with the questions I raised above, I dont.
    May 31, 2011. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avanir Pharmaceuticals: Compelling Short Sale Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for the reply,

    Walking away from this article, I could tell a professional level of due diligence was done. The issues you raise are complex ones and not for the laypeople on SA, so I would caution you not to take the comments too seriously.

    While it's true that use patent are relatively easier to invalid, it doesn't mean that the company can't prove validity. One point to consider, is that PBA has no other treatment, so how could there be sufficient prior art. That's the USE in the use-patent. AVNR had to prove in large RCT it's effectiveness.

    So the patent related weakness you identified is pretty much the same for ALL use patents and not AVNR's specifically.

    So with that in mind, how many use patents have maintained validity, and how many use patents have maintained validity for treatment with no other treatment EVER defined.

    The answers to these questions would be more relevant than what you've discussed, at least in my opinion.
    May 31, 2011. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Platform and Specialty Pharmaceutical Companies Could Strengthen in Face of Big Pharma's Patent Cliff [View article]
    Open to questions or comments!
    May 27, 2011. 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Setbacks Make Vivus a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    FORTRESS shows dosing relationship
    -->100mg risk considerably less than 200mg+
    -->100mg risk nominally less than 200mg+
    FORTRESS doesnt show dosing relationship
    -->Full Validation Rquired + VVUS can resubmit for limited population
    -->Full Validation Required before VVUS can resubmit

    I give 20% chance of Full Validation being required before resubmission. Which means that I think there is a 80% chance of some sort of approval.

    I hope this helps you understand why I am bullish.

    So to reiterate, I dont think I am misguided or reckless. I think you may be misinterpreting what is required for approval... I dont blame you we are not the FDA... but we can make inferences and think critically.
    May 18, 2011. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FDA Setbacks Make Vivus a Buying Opportunity [View article]
    The article was written in February/March timeframe, when the stock price was under $7. The price now is well above $8. So I think that the test of time proved that it was a "buying opportunity."

    Your also expecting me to be a time traveler, if you think that in February, I could guess what would be buried in a 10Q in May.

    With that aside, I think you are missing the point with regards to what the FDA wants. If you read back at my posts about XNPT you can draw some parrallels here.

    The FDA wants VVUS to prove if there is a relationship with incidence vs. dose. It has NOTHING, I repeate, NOTHING to do with overall incidence.

    Otherwise, what the hell is the point? The study is pretty useless.

    You have to ask yourself, what is the FDA trying to ascertain. Which I dont think you are.

    They know it causes CP/CL, so what the hell is the point? DOSE PROPORTIONALITY.

    If there is dose proportionality, the FDA will most likely be more lenient.

    If there is no dose proportionality, which is HIGHLY UNLIKELY, the FDA will be less lenient. Which would mean VVUS would need a more thorough risk mitigation strategy.

    So when you're reading these studies, and when your studying biochemistry, and when your examining mechanism of action, and examining toxicology, are you asking yourself is there dose proportionality?

    I've sufficiently asked myself this question and I have made my conclusion.
    May 18, 2011. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Depomed: Light-Risk Small Pharma With Huge Potential [View article]
    Good summary and thanks for the shoutout/credit.
    Apr 21, 2011. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Abbott Parting With Gralise, Depomed's Future Looks Bright [View article]
    We had some nice price strength for you to sell into.

    I think the weakness presents a buying opportunity.

    It would be wildly bullish if $DEPO drops sufficiently with $XNPT approval.

    I think playing long both is a decent hedge for both.

    I think XNPT approval DEPO moves down, with XNPT CRL DEPO moves up.
    Apr 6, 2011. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategies and Outlook for Xenoport's Upcoming FDA PDUFA Date [View article]
    I will update my profile just for you.
    Mar 30, 2011. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment