Comments on China Stock Guru's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/china-stock-guru/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/99532-4-chinese-stocks-positioned-for-the-rebound?source=feed#comment-733553 733553 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:37:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-466577 466577 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:10:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99532-4-chinese-stocks-positioned-for-the-rebound?source=feed#comment-388717 388717 Sat, 14 Feb 2009 17:06:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-345074 345074 Sat, 03 Jan 2009 23:24:18 -0500 www.Wind4me.com

The Distributed Power side is in a perfect sweet spot since smaller power stations can and willl be built]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-344747 344747 First off, to address your point. This is Econ 101: if you borrow > money, current investors get the benefit of the increased earnings. > If you issue more shares, the now diluted base gets a reduced EPS > benefit. > > Borrowed money is riskier, but more beneficial if you're successful. > > > The true issue here is that FEED is in a commodity business and they > are going to suffer typical commodity volatility in their margins. > They are finding out the hard way that they need more equity to survive > the current downturn. There is no way they grow earnings 100% next > year unless business conditions turn. Don't be surprised if they > need to issue more shares again. And, ask yourself this...if they > grow earnings 50% but need to issue 100% more shares, how are you > looking? > > I can't predict when the cycle turns or what FEED will earn, but > I can say that APWR doesn't need to dilute anyone to stay strong > for the next cycle. They are better positioned due to their balance > sheet.]]> Sat, 03 Jan 2009 06:36:50 -0500

On Jan 02 11:44 AM ChinaStockGuru wrote:

> First off, to address your point. This is Econ 101: if you borrow
> money, current investors get the benefit of the increased earnings.
> If you issue more shares, the now diluted base gets a reduced EPS
> benefit.
>
> Borrowed money is riskier, but more beneficial if you're successful.
>
>
> The true issue here is that FEED is in a commodity business and they
> are going to suffer typical commodity volatility in their margins.
> They are finding out the hard way that they need more equity to survive
> the current downturn. There is no way they grow earnings 100% next
> year unless business conditions turn. Don't be surprised if they
> need to issue more shares again. And, ask yourself this...if they
> grow earnings 50% but need to issue 100% more shares, how are you
> looking?
>
> I can't predict when the cycle turns or what FEED will earn, but
> I can say that APWR doesn't need to dilute anyone to stay strong
> for the next cycle. They are better positioned due to their balance
> sheet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-344243 344243 > issuing shares is like printing money. way better than borrowing > to expand for the upcoming hong kong sales. > > if you dilute shares by 30% and increase profit by 100% how did you > hurt the original shares holders. > > if you sell 5 mil in shares and put it in the bank, how did you reduce > the value of the entity? > > On Dec 31 07:58 PM ChinaStockGuru wrote:]]> Fri, 02 Jan 2009 11:44:10 -0500
Borrowed money is riskier, but more beneficial if you're successful.

The true issue here is that FEED is in a commodity business and they are going to suffer typical commodity volatility in their margins. They are finding out the hard way that they need more equity to survive the current downturn. There is no way they grow earnings 100% next year unless business conditions turn. Don't be surprised if they need to issue more shares again. And, ask yourself this...if they grow earnings 50% but need to issue 100% more shares, how are you looking?

I can't predict when the cycle turns or what FEED will earn, but I can say that APWR doesn't need to dilute anyone to stay strong for the next cycle. They are better positioned due to their balance sheet.


On Jan 01 03:45 PM always wrote:

>
> issuing shares is like printing money. way better than borrowing
> to expand for the upcoming hong kong sales.
>
> if you dilute shares by 30% and increase profit by 100% how did you
> hurt the original shares holders.
>
> if you sell 5 mil in shares and put it in the bank, how did you reduce
> the value of the entity?
>
> On Dec 31 07:58 PM ChinaStockGuru wrote:]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-343617 343617 Where does China Guru get a weak balance sheet from FEED, or is he > in the business of "shorting stock" whether it deserves it or not.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 15:46:42 -0500

On Dec 31 12:37 PM PNG wrote:

> Where does China Guru get a weak balance sheet from FEED, or is he
> in the business of "shorting stock" whether it deserves it or not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-343613 343613 FEED must feel their balance sheet is weak, or they wouldn't be issuing > shares. I'm just pointing out what the company is telling us. And, > no, I'm not short. My positions are in the disclaimer.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 15:45:30 -0500 issuing shares is like printing money. way better than borrowing to expand for the upcoming hong kong sales.

if you dilute shares by 30% and increase profit by 100% how did you hurt the original shares holders.

if you sell 5 mil in shares and put it in the bank, how did you reduce the value of the entity?

On Dec 31 07:58 PM ChinaStockGuru wrote:

> FEED must feel their balance sheet is weak, or they wouldn't be issuing
> shares. I'm just pointing out what the company is telling us. And,
> no, I'm not short. My positions are in the disclaimer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-343007 343007 Where does China Guru get a weak balance sheet from FEED, or is he > in the business of "shorting stock" whether it deserves it or not.]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 19:58:44 -0500

On Dec 31 12:37 PM PNG wrote:

> Where does China Guru get a weak balance sheet from FEED, or is he
> in the business of "shorting stock" whether it deserves it or not.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-342684 342684 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:37:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-342661 342661 APWR's cash balance is actually just shy of $2.00/ share. At the > end of Q3, they had 58+M cash. This is a great company that will > recover nicely. They have a two pronged business model so have revenue > streams coming from both their local power generation business, and > now their wind turbines. > > JBB]]> Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:17:59 -0500
Kinda makes you feel so cozy......knowing that everything being said here is coming from the company's press releases. How does anyone confirm anything to be true ?

I think there are many naive investors playing in this name.....

Reminds me of CXTI !!!


On Dec 31 09:49 AM JSbalaban wrote:

> APWR's cash balance is actually just shy of $2.00/ share. At the
> end of Q3, they had 58+M cash. This is a great company that will
> recover nicely. They have a two pronged business model so have revenue
> streams coming from both their local power generation business, and
> now their wind turbines.
>
> JBB]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-342409 342409 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 09:52:02 -0500
JBB]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112801-a-power-and-agfeed-the-importance-of-a-strong-balance-sheet?source=feed#comment-342406 342406 Wed, 31 Dec 2008 09:49:42 -0500
JBB]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-312066 312066 Fri, 21 Nov 2008 16:29:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99532-4-chinese-stocks-positioned-for-the-rebound?source=feed#comment-303099 303099 Tue, 11 Nov 2008 12:46:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-297683 297683 Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:26:39 -0500
......And I definitley agree!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-296381 296381 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 12:23:08 -0500
I concur with your assessment in it's entirety. Default is default, whether real or "de facto". The end result for the US is the same, but for TBT it may be different. Not putting all eggs in one basket here, just spreading dollar shorts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99532-4-chinese-stocks-positioned-for-the-rebound?source=feed#comment-296173 296173 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 08:10:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-296060 296060 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 02:01:52 -0500
Second you say "Thus, while we stand on the verge of a huge increase in US Treasury offerings, the largest buyer has left the trading room." I am not sure how you came to that conclusion. As long as China runs, or wants to run, a trade surplus with the US (and August and September were the two highest surplus months in history), it has no choice but to buy US dollars directly or indirectly. If it stops, its trade surplus with the US disappears. Again, given the importance of its exports to the US, it is pretty unlikely that it will want to do so – on the contrary they are now doing everything they can to shore up exports. In fact while China's reserves continue to surge, there is some circumstantial evidence that they have increased the dollar share of total reserves.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-296058 296058 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 01:46:59 -0500
In an honest world, the insatiable need to borrow to finance our out-of-control deficit spending would drive up interest rates. In an even more honest world, we would someday get to a true surplus (even Clinton didn't have that -- the total debt went up despite his "surpluses" because of the fraudulent accounting of Social Security payroll taxes) by the government spending LESS than it takes in in taxes. It think that last happened in the 1950's (Johnson faked one year and then there was Clinton's "almosts".) That's not going to happen.

We are a dishonest nation with a dishonest government (they go together -- we want government services, we just don't want to pay for them). The end result will be an effective default. We will print money to pay off our creditors, but both they and we will be poorer for it. Apparently there is a treasuries for dollars swap that can be done between the Treasury department and the Fed to carry this out, but it's the end result that matters. A whole lot of new dollars, existing debt largely wiped out by a much cheaper dollar.

In this case, interest rates might not rise as they should in an honest market. They should rise because of supply and demand, the need of the US government to borrow dollars to cover our deficit spending. If we create trillions of new dollars, we don't need to borrow. In fact, we can even pay off our existing debt.

Of course, future borrowing would no longer be in dollars. Oil would rise to astronomical levels for Americans, forcing a drastic reduction in imports, with obvious results for the US economy and standard of living.

The US is bankrupt. It just hasn't filed the court papers yet.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295919 295919 Sat, 01 Nov 2008 19:26:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295903 295903 Sat, 01 Nov 2008 18:33:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295389 295389 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:11:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295295 295295 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:50:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295286 295286 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:40:11 -0400 2. China has been signing trade agreements around the world during this century. China does not seem to be thinking of the US as the only game in town.
3. The political debates are paid for by large corporations, like patent medicine. The arrangement is that the producers get a huge tax write-off and the debaters get free air time. There are rules of engagement and limits on how far a participant can be pushed on any issue. I'm not convinced about any of what I hear.
4. I have severe doubts about Palin. One of the worse greenhouse gases that is affecting our environment is cow flatulence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295258 295258 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 13:16:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295196 295196 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 12:04:15 -0400
However, I disagree with your focus on the presidential election. If Obama ends the tax breaks for the rich and stops pouring money into the military contracting toilet, we will be in a better fiscal position than with Bush or McCain. But it won't be enough, so that doesn't matter.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295176 295176 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 11:45:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295049 295049 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:25:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/103199-shorting-the-long-bond-the-obama-solution-meets-china?source=feed#comment-295035 295035 Fri, 31 Oct 2008 10:11:41 -0400