Since our Michael Pento just wrote a fundamental piece on the U.S. dollar, I thought I'd follow up with a quick technical snapshot.

In the short run, I'm a bit torn but leaning negative. The small positive which makes me hope the dollar bounce may gain strength is that, on a Point & Figure basis, a move above 74 would notch the second straight double-top buy signal off the bottom, making a short-term move to the mid-70s very likely. And there would be room all the way up to the high 70s, even without changing the dollar's negative long-term trend. In other words, odds would increase with a move above 74 that this counter-rally could become quite strong.

There has been a lot of talk lately about oil's need to pull back. With global infrastructure one of the areas we advise on, it remains my sincere impression that despite the investment world's awareness of the China/emerging markets/raw materials story, most folks still don't quite grasp its sheer immensity and its ongoing implications for raw materials.

This backdrop that has caused me to say that energy, base metals and agriculture prices had little downside risk and that most commodities would outperform gold for awhile the last couple of times I was on CNBC (watch here: May 8, March 24).

The fundamental story behind agriculture is powerful, no doubt, and I agree with what our firm's own Michael Pento had to say just the other day in response to the notion that there is somehow a bubble in agriculture.

That said, this pullback could be pretty darned steep.

With its break into the low 40's, Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF.PK) has been on a roll, reflecting more than any other energy trust the rising price of crude. Despite its unique story, we're consistently surprised at how little investors seem to know about this company compared to other energy trusts, so a simple run-down is provided here.

COS is the only Canadian energy trust to provide a pure play investment into Alberta's oil sands, by way of its 36.8% interest in the huge Syncrude project. Most energy investors do know, however, that this oil sands region represents the world's key future energy source, with recoverable reserves rivaling those of Saudi Arabia.

After starting with a bang by raising $29.4 million in its first 12 trading days on the market, the Van Eck Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL) is certainly worthy of a look under the hood.

The headline of the Bloomberg article reads: "Harper May Be Toppled as Canada Lawmakers Debate Economy, War." Indeed, due to a sluggish economy and discontent over the country's continued military presence in Afghanistan, Canada's minority parties are thinking about bringing down the government in the Spring. In a parliamentary system like theirs, national elections can be brought about anytime if the ruling coalition loses a confidence vote; being a minority ruling coalition-holding the most seats of any party, but not more than half-is a particularly tenuous, and usually temporary, condition that makes national elections in Canada this year a very real possibility.

What does this have to do with Canadian energy trusts? In the bizarro-world of Canada's current energy politics, the return to power of the Liberal party would be a positive for this sector. Why? Ever since their Halloween, 2006 announcement changing the tax status of energy trusts starting in 2011 (subsequently passed into law early in 2007), rhetoric on the topic from conservatives has been so strident as to prevent any possibility of their backtracking and altering their plan.

By now, most market watchers have probably seen the comments from supermodel--I've always been intrigued by that term...what separates a regular model from a super one? Better yet is when they refer to themselves as one: "What do you do?" "I'm a supermodel..." but I digress--Giselle Bundchen demanding that she be paid in Euros instead of U.S. dollars.

Good idea, bad? Maybe one could say it represents wise diversification if she ties up permanently with quarterback Tom Brady since he's paid his millions in U.S. dollars (are they still on? pardon if I'm behind the curve, Hollywood gossip isn't my area of expertise), but in reality it reminds of something else, an article I wrote in early 2005, right in front of a multi-month advance in the U.S. dollar.

By now most market watchers know that the Federal Reserve chose the path of least resistance: a 25 basis point interest rate cut. Initially, the stock market fell when the news was released because the statement was seen as too hawkish toward inflation. In particular, here's the segment of the Fed's announcement which bothered markets momentarily:

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

I can't believe how many people are still looking at the homebuilders, trying to figure out when they'll be a good buy.

Exact timing (and yesterday's rally in the group) aside, the short answer to that question is: not yet.

Yet another round of his ongoing royalty trust blunder was played by Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper this week as he stated any protectionist legislation regarding royalty trust acquisitions by foreign buyers would be put off until next year.

Because last year's bombshell that Canada would change the way it treated royalty trusts was fraught with political risks, not only did the ruling Conservatives pull it off with surprising ease, they've dodged all the bullets since. This latest one, however-- the announced takeover of PrimeWest Energy Trust (PWI) by Abu Dhabi's national oil company-- may be a tougher bullet to dodge. Here's a quick summary of the big royalty trust political events of the last year, capping with the latest: