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Chowder  

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ABT, AFL, APD, ARCP, ARLP, AT, BDT, BF.B, BMO, BP, BRK.A, BRK.B, C, CBRL, CINF, CL, COP, CTL, CVX, D, DE, DIA, DRI, ED, ENB, EPD, EXC, FSP, FTR, GD, GE, GILD, GIS, GPC, HCBK, HCN, HGIC, IBM, INTC, JNJ, KMB, KMI, KMP, KO, KRFT, LEG, LINE, LNCO, LO, MAA, MCD, MDLZ, MDT, MHR, MKC, MMM, MMP, MO, NFLX, NHI, NLY, NNN, O, OHI, PBI, PEP, PG, PM, PNY, PSX, RIG, RY, SBSI, SDRL, SDY, SNY, SO, SPY, SYY, T, TE, TGT, TIP, TOT, TUP, UHT, UNP, UNS, UTX, VIG, VVC, VZ, WAG, WEC, WM, WMT, WU, XLU, XOM
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  • Retirement Strategy: Keep An Even Keel And Focus On What Matters Most To You [View article]
    >>> I am still trying to figure out who RG is???? ;) <<<

    Must be a Redskins fan. ... Ha!
    Sep 2, 2015. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    I have actually had women come up to me and ask if they could rub my hair. One lady told me she was tired of bald heads! ... Ha!

    Going bald naturally is one thing, but a lot of guys younger than me are doing it on their own and some women miss the hair, so I'm the beneficiary.

    The Missus will give me 'the look', and I'll say ... What?
    Sep 2, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    @PDavid ... This is my first trip to UK, so I'm really looking forward to it. I'm a huge English Premier League soccer fan. My avatar here shows my favorite team, the Arsenal Gunners. Up the gunners babee! Or gooners as they are lovingly called.

    I'm looking forward to watching some matches in the English Pubs with English lads.

    I purchased a book, the top 60 pubs in Ireland before going over there, and I knew the history of each pub we visited. One of the pubs I went to, the Brazen Head, was established well before Columbus discovered America, and it looks it too. ... I loved it.

    http://bit.ly/1iiA40b
    Sep 2, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    A $70 price on NKE would put it below their historical PE. So, I would agree, that would be a great price, but what are the odds?

    An $80 price would put NKE at it's historical PE of 21+. So, I would also agree, it's too overvalued for me at this time.

    I don't think they are coming down to $80 anytime soon though. Their historical operating earnings has been 10%. Their forward earnings expectations are 14%. That would indicate over-performance, based on historical numbers.

    The athletic footwear business, a business I do want exposure to, seems to be growing stronger. I've been looking at NKE, UA and FL all to no avail. I would like to get them at a discount, but it doesn't appear that's coming anytime soon, especially with back to school and the holidays coming up.

    I had to drop down to a lower tier level to the athletic footwear business and opened a position in DKS. I'm trying to back-door the shoe business. ... Ha!
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    Re: LMT ... I had been averaging up on LMT and it now represents one of our largest positions, both in Project $3 Million and my personal portfolio. Our cost basis in Project $3 Million is $89 and my personal cost basis is $86.

    In the old days, I would have sold half of my position once I had a 100% return and play with what I used to call 'house money.' Then I matured mentally and realized it isn't house money, it's my money, and then I realized I was selling off half of a winner and holding on to losers. What a concept!

    Then I thought, who has a better chance of providing a 200% return, someone already in excess of 100%, or some growth company I am buying new?

    Then there was the situation of having a 200% return and me saying I wish I owned more of it. I did! I sold it off like a dummy!

    Re: COST ... It's on my watch list, but even with 10% expected earnings growth, it will need to come down below it's historical PE for me to purchase. I've never been in a Costco store. I've never even seen one.

    Re: KR ... The grocery business is a sector I've had no desire to engage. Margins are usually too low and there isn't room for error. There is also too much competition among grocery stores. Our Kroger and Publix are side by side. How crazy is that?

    Anyway, I only shop at Kroger and the Missus will only shop at Publix. As a Kroger shopper, I have noticed more and more private label brands. I mean lots of more private label brands. I'm wondering if those private label brands, which are usually less expensive, don't provide some sort of edge, or at least help improve margins. I don't know. I'm still thinking about whether I want to put them on the watch list or not.
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • These Are Future Dividend Champions, My Friends [View article]
    >>> Though I will say you are lucky to have that one in the green. <<<

    Between all of the family portfolio's, we own about 50 companies and had only one in the green on Monday. Buffalo Wild Wings babee. - BWLD.

    Wings! Beer! Sports! ... What can I say?
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    My portfolio, from peak to valley, and to include the peak, you'd have to include 2007, my portfolio saw a drawdown of just over 30%. It's still a considerable drawdown, but nothing compared to the S&P Index (down 57%) or some of the ETF's out there.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but a 30% drawdown only requires a 42.8% return to get back to even.

    A 57% drawdown requires a 132.5% return to get back to even. Huge difference!
    Sep 2, 2015. 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    Well, that's true. I would rather have a beer than write.

    I don't get any pleasure out of writing. I know some people do. You can usually see it in their writing styles.

    Wings! Beer! Sports! ... Now I get pleasure from that.

    We'll be heading out to London in a couple of weeks and I already have pub time set up with some of the indigenous personnel. Got a couple of lads flying over from Ireland to spend some pub time with me.

    The Missus and my daughter will be visiting museums and other tourist things. I told them some of these pubs were museums.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    >>> stocks are: xom, t, gis, cl, d, jnj, ko, mcd, mo, o, pg, so. <<<

    It's certainly representative of my portfolio, I own every single one of these.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    >>> I spread the risk and take what the market has to offer without taking on any unsystemic risk. <<<

    I suppose it depends on what a person defines as risk. A lot of people consider price volatility a risk, I don't. I call price volatility the toll one has to pay for the potential higher total return one can achieve over long periods of time.

    When I think of risk, I think of company risk. My concern is any company becoming a:

    Washington Mutual 1889
    Woolworths 1880
    Kodak 1892
    General Motors 1908
    US Steel 1901
    JC Penny 1913
    Sears 1893
    Pan Am 1927
    Nortel 1895

    As you stated, they were all great companies at one time.

    I can't eliminate that risk, and where a mutual fund minimizes the risk through numbers, I manage the risk by monitoring the quality of a company. When I make a purchase, a company must be rated BBB+ or better, have specific earnings requirements, and show me that they have been able to survive recessions.

    I can minimize the damage to my portfolio by monitoring these things.

    If a company I own is showing an Earnings Quality Rating of Strongest, although it is trailing information, I know to monitor earnings announcements in real time. Are they continuing to meet or beat earnings expectations or not? If not, then it's time to start watching and determine if the earnings miss is something that will be temporary or permanent. Then it's a matter of defining temporary.

    When I realized oil service companies were going to have lower earnings going forward, I knew to sell SDRL and anything upstream related. I was willing to hold on to a CVX and XOM and allow dividends to be reinvested, but I also knew not to rush in and add to those positions.

    A lot of people say don't own more than 15-20 positions as it will put a drag on cap appreciation. I say own 35-40, maybe more to protect against company specific risk, the kind of risk those companies listed above presented.

    So again, it comes down to what is more important to the investor.

    It's not that often that a blue chip goes from high quality to bankruptcy, but again, part of owning an equity portfolio is monitoring its earnings and cash flow trends and there are free sources that will present this data. It takes a lot less time to monitor that than it did to write this comment. ... Ha!
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    I can't imagine ULTA coming down to $143 unless they have an earnings miss and I doubt that's going to happen this year, especially with the holidays coming up.

    S&P says it was selling at a 13.8% discount to fair value on Monday. When I looked at the number of analysts calling it a Buy, there's almost consensus among all of them, then price certainly isn't going to drift that low, not when they beat earnings expectations and revenue expectations. It's going to take a major catalyst for it to correct that much, I think.

    I'm not saying it can't happen, it's just not likely between now and the end of the year.
    Sep 2, 2015. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    During the Great Recession, the S&P 500 Index dropped 57% in value from peak to valley. Some ETF's dropped even more than that. Would you consider that risky?
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Dividend Growth Stocks For Your Retirement Portfolio's Aggregate Yield 4.3%: Part 2 [View article]
    From where I sit, it isn't a matter of trying to prove which asset is a better holding. I own equities because they meet my goals much better than ETF's or mutual funds.

    Since income and income growth are my priority, equities do a better job of fulfilling that objective. If capital preservation was more important, then my choice of asset would be much different. If my goal was to have every position I own outperform the S&P 500 or other benchmark, I would do something altogether different.

    So, when I discuss equities, I'm not suggesting that those who invest elsewhere are wrong to do so. I simply share what it is I own and then explain my thought process for doing so.

    Robert mentioned bankrupt companies just above this comment. I say so what. Those same companies are in the funds that most people would own. It wasn't the end of the world. Companies don't go from being financially strong, which is a requirement for equity investing, to filing bankruptcy overnight. There is usually a long period of regression and we have plenty of time to react before the company does if we are monitoring our holdings properly.
    Sep 2, 2015. 08:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    People allow the calendar to tell them when to do tax loss selling whereas funds and some companies operate on fiscal year. A year is a year. It only matters where and when you start to measure it.

    I would think tax loss selling should be done late summer when the funds do their's. Then you're back in for the ride up after the wash rule.

    I don't have any tax loss selling to take advantage of so I haven't been paying attention that much. It was that first 500 down day that reminded me of it.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    Wow, I never expected that. I thank all who took the time to read the article and comment.
    Sep 1, 2015. 08:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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