Chris Capre's  Instablog

Hello Traders,

Rumors out of various trading desks and houses is that Soros was selling the AU in anticipation of a rate cut. The floats are saying he pushed about a yard through three various asian brokers.

If the rumors are true, its unlikely he'll put his foot off the gas, or pull out his position. add the fact traders are probably not keen on buying AUD's at this point, and further losses seem likely.

So watch for breakout pullback setups using the chart below for the former support, now likely resistance and key level around 1.0220.

(click to enlarge)

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

Yesterday in my market commentary, I posted a false break + pin bar signal on the Euro, specifically talking about how the pair failed to hold above the key resistance and swing high at 1.3200.

The fact the pair had rejected after breaking above, and then closing below the 1.3200 level setup a short signal opportunity where I recommended getting short at 1.3200.

The pair went a few pips above, and then sold off about +140 pips as you can see from the chart below, so hopefully you profited from that.

(click to enlarge)

I'm expecting more downside, but also trading should be muted a few hours before the NFP tomorrow, so pullbacks towards 1.3127 could be looked at to sell a move lower prior to the NFP announcement.

After that - all bets are off so good luck tomorrow.

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

A lot of setups this week, along with some chop on a few pairs, but one that is standing out to me which has opportunities on both sides, is Gold which formed an impressive bull run after the massive two day selling from 14 days ago.

The PM hit the key resistance level at $1484, testing it twice before running into sellers there. On the 4hr chart, this manifested as a pin bar, while on the 1hr the second attempt at the level formed an 'almost' large bearish engulfing bar (chart below).

(click to enlarge)

These intra-day price action twin rejections suggests to me there are sellers really willing to defend this level. The PM found support at $1448, so bulls and bears have their lines in the sand drawn.

Watch for intra-day price action signals off the $1484 level (for bears) while bulls can look for support off the $1448 level. Although short term momentum is up, and physical demand has been through the roof lately (I know because I tried to get Krugs and was put on a 2-4 week waiting period :-ooo), medium term, the line of least resistance is to the downside.