Rumors out of various trading desks and houses is that Soros was selling the AU in anticipation of a rate cut. The floats are saying he pushed about a yard through three various asian brokers.

If the rumors are true, its unlikely he'll put his foot off the gas, or pull out his position. add the fact traders are probably not keen on buying AUD's at this point, and further losses seem likely.

So watch for breakout pullback setups using the chart below for the former support, now likely resistance and key level around 1.0220.

(click to enlarge)

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

Yesterday in my market commentary, I posted a false break + pin bar signal on the Euro, specifically talking about how the pair failed to hold above the key resistance and swing high at 1.3200.

The fact the pair had rejected after breaking above, and then closing below the 1.3200 level setup a short signal opportunity where I recommended getting short at 1.3200.

The pair went a few pips above, and then sold off about +140 pips as you can see from the chart below, so hopefully you profited from that.

(click to enlarge)

I'm expecting more downside, but also trading should be muted a few hours before the NFP tomorrow, so pullbacks towards 1.3127 could be looked at to sell a move lower prior to the NFP announcement.

After that - all bets are off so good luck tomorrow.

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

A lot of setups this week, along with some chop on a few pairs, but one that is standing out to me which has opportunities on both sides, is Gold which formed an impressive bull run after the massive two day selling from 14 days ago.

The PM hit the key resistance level at $1484, testing it twice before running into sellers there. On the 4hr chart, this manifested as a pin bar, while on the 1hr the second attempt at the level formed an 'almost' large bearish engulfing bar (chart below).

(click to enlarge)

These intra-day price action twin rejections suggests to me there are sellers really willing to defend this level. The PM found support at $1448, so bulls and bears have their lines in the sand drawn.

Watch for intra-day price action signals off the $1484 level (for bears) while bulls can look for support off the $1448 level. Although short term momentum is up, and physical demand has been through the roof lately (I know because I tried to get Krugs and was put on a 2-4 week waiting period :-ooo), medium term, the line of least resistance is to the downside.

A lot of really good setups to start the week in gold/silver, Euro and JPY pairs, along with indices as well - so expecting this to be a really interesting trading week.

Wanted to comment on two today;

EURUSD

As stated on Thursday last week, the pair played out exactly as expected, popping up to the range high around 1.3121, forming a pin bar and then sold off about 70pips from there, so hopefully you profited from this as many of the forum members did.

Any corrective pullbacks into the range high and pin bar (chart below) will likely offer a good intra-day sell signal targeting the range low. This is also forming a potential head and shoulders pattern on the 4hr, so could see a major break lower should 1.3000 fail to hold.

(click to enlarge)

[B]German Dax 30[/B]

Showing signs that its rolling over, the Dax has one of its worst losing weeks in over a year, and is barely sitting above key support at 7460 which is a mutli-year support level (chart below).

The major support at 7550 was broken last week, so ill look for corrective price action signals to short here as I'm expecting rallies to be sold for an eventual move lower.

(click to enlarge)

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

The price action is shaping up to make this an interesting week.

I think the first pairs you'll want to look at for this week will be the JPY pairs, particularly the EURJPY and GBPJPY which sold off heavily to end last week. For those closely following this thread, I actually posted about this here hours ahead of time.

[B]EURJPY[/B]

Looking at the chart below, we can see the selling on late Friday took out the last two days lows (almost a third), which has likely tripped medium term stops from the bulls. The overall trend is still well into place, so I'll look for price action signals at 128.51 and 127.80 (former yearly high) to rejoin the trend. Only a break below 124.42 will damage the medium term bull trend.

(click to enlarge)

[B]Gold - Breaking Bad Edition[/B]

How can you not talk about Gold which got monkey-hammered last week, losing over $75 on Friday alone. The key was the large breakout bar which tripped medium term stops from bulls, by breaking below the $1520 multi-year support level.

You may see a short term pop this week, but consider these rallies to get short for a much larger move down, as the PM could be headed for $1433 and perhaps much lower before finding a base.

Bottoms after moves like this are rarely formed in a day, and often take weeks, perhaps months, so do not worry about catching a falling knife here. It will show signs of a bottom well before it actually does, so look for primarily shorts till we see some stronger basing, which may be a while.

(click to enlarge)

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre

This week is showing a lot of good setups on the JPY pairs, Gold, Silver, Oil, European Indices, AUDUSD, Euro, and more.

Today I'm going to focus on the GBPJPY and Gold.

GBPJPY

The japanese yen has been monkey-hammered by the BOJ bazooka which is now making helicopter ben look like a miser when it comes to central bank intervention and quantitative easing with its bond buying program.

I think among the JPY pairs for now, the GBPJPY looks the best as its cleared the yearly highs easily, while EURJPY is just above it, and USDJPY the same.

I think these new yearly highs have taken out any stops or shorts, and thus sets up an opportunity for a breakout pullback setup at the aforementioned key levels (chart below).

(click to enlarge)

I'll look to get long at either the 150 big figure or the 148 role reversal level, and stops below the March highs. I think the JPY will depreciate massively over the coming weeks, months and years - probably more than others anticipate, with USDJPY going to 250 eventually.

For the GBPJPY, short term targets are 153 and 162.30 which is the 2009 double top highs.

[B]Gold[/B]

In a long protracted downtrend since $1800, Gold was approaching the 2012 lows before finding some buyers last week off of $1540. This was first marked by a pin bar signal, which then found further buying to the tune of $30 higher.

What is most interesting to me, is how the pair formed a new swing low below the prior support, but then broke back into the larger range. Usually in heavily mature trends, a breakout failure like this, either signals a reversal, or a 're-distribution' of the order flow.

(click to enlarge)

Although the PM looks fragile, a clearing of $1620, or a second test and hold on the yearly lows will likely bring in more buyers and thus neutralize the medium term bear trend. Bears can look to sell around $1620, targeting $1600 and $1554, while bulls can look for a pullback towards the latter level to get long.

Kind Regards,

Chris Capre