Chris Cather - Seeking Alpha 'Chris Cather' Tag RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/chris-cather Government Financing Slow to Drive Solar Deals http://seekingalpha.com/article/174230-government-financing-slow-to-drive-solar-deals?source=feed 174230 Are government tax credits, grants and loan guarantees, driving demand for solar energy in the US market?

Yes, but it’s a slow process.

]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:48:31 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

Are government tax credits, grants and loan guarantees, driving demand for solar energy in the US market?

Yes, but it’s a slow process.


Complete Story »]]> FSLR JASO SPWRA WFR C USB TD WFC Chris Cather Solar Stocks: Will ARRA Funding Shake Up the Sector? http://seekingalpha.com/article/172330-solar-stocks-will-arra-funding-shake-up-the-sector?source=feed 172330
New tax credits, grants and loan guarantees through the American Recovery and Investment Act (ARRA), administered through the Department of Energy, can only be used for solar projects in the United States. With the global revenue mix of public solar module manufacturers, will it even have much of an effect on valuations, especially short-term?
Recently, a NY private equity firm contacted me with this very question for three solar stocks in their portfolio: Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Solarfun (SOLF).
The US market for solar modules remains the smallest, but most likely fastest growing, country market out of total global revenue for ESLR, TSL and SOLF. US revenue as a percentage of global revenue is highest as of Q2 2009 for ESLR at 24%, and still relatively small for both SOLF and TSL at 1 – 2%.
In this context, the short-term impact of new US Government financing mechanisms may accelerate new downstream solar projects for which the portfolio companies are suppliers. Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Kelvin Schulle, pointed this out here.
However, in a broader context, as mentioned the US represents a small percentage of overall revenue. Interestingly, the portfolio companies are using diverse financing techniques for projects that will supply their non-US markets, including the US Ex-Im Bank and Chinese government. And some non-US banks are being used for customer financing in the US.
As mentioned in this summer’s Renewable Energy Finance Forum (REFF) – Wall Street, renewable energy deal cap structures are evolving. A typical deal may be 55% debt, 30% US Gov. grant and 15% equity. Overall, US dealflow of solar projects should ramp in 2010.
Specifically, there were some interesting comments surrounding the growth of US markets and the effects of ARRA financing during the second quarter conference calls. The transcripts on Seeking Alpha are linked below.
Of the three portfolio companies, Evergreen Solar has the largest US presence, growing sequentially from Q1 to Q2 from 20% to 24%. The call suggested pent-up demand on commercial and utility scale projects that would benefit from guidance on the DOE Loan Guarantee and Treasury Grant Programs issued in August.
Trina Solar currently has a small US presence but sees the US as an “emerging” and its fastest growing global market accounting for as much as 15 – 20% of global revenue in Q4. TSL noted an increase in US module orders financed by state and city solar programs in California and Florida.
For Solarfun, as of Q2, percentage of global revenue in the US is small, maybe around 1%, but expected to ramp in Q3 and Q4. A recent sales office opened in California and alliances formed with US strategic partners.
Stay tuned. The Novogradac Financing Renewable Energy Conference will meet in Washington, D.C. November 11th and 12th and will convene solar developers and financiers and should provide some valuable insights.
Disclosure: Author owns share in the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN), which has holdings in ESLR, TSL and SOLF.
]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:39:26 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

New tax credits, grants and loan guarantees through the American Recovery and Investment Act (ARRA), administered through the Department of Energy, can only be used for solar projects in the United States. With the global revenue mix of public solar module manufacturers, will it even have much of an effect on valuations, especially short-term?
Recently, a NY private equity firm contacted me with this very question for three solar stocks in their portfolio: Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Trina Solar (TSL) and Solarfun (SOLF).
The US market for solar modules remains the smallest, but most likely fastest growing, country market out of total global revenue for ESLR, TSL and SOLF. US revenue as a percentage of global revenue is highest as of Q2 2009 for ESLR at 24%, and still relatively small for both SOLF and TSL at 1 – 2%.
In this context, the short-term impact of new US Government financing mechanisms may accelerate new downstream solar projects for which the portfolio companies are suppliers. Fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Kelvin Schulle, pointed this out here.
However, in a broader context, as mentioned the US represents a small percentage of overall revenue. Interestingly, the portfolio companies are using diverse financing techniques for projects that will supply their non-US markets, including the US Ex-Im Bank and Chinese government. And some non-US banks are being used for customer financing in the US.
As mentioned in this summer’s Renewable Energy Finance Forum (REFF) – Wall Street, renewable energy deal cap structures are evolving. A typical deal may be 55% debt, 30% US Gov. grant and 15% equity. Overall, US dealflow of solar projects should ramp in 2010.
Specifically, there were some interesting comments surrounding the growth of US markets and the effects of ARRA financing during the second quarter conference calls. The transcripts on Seeking Alpha are linked below.
Of the three portfolio companies, Evergreen Solar has the largest US presence, growing sequentially from Q1 to Q2 from 20% to 24%. The call suggested pent-up demand on commercial and utility scale projects that would benefit from guidance on the DOE Loan Guarantee and Treasury Grant Programs issued in August.
Trina Solar currently has a small US presence but sees the US as an “emerging” and its fastest growing global market accounting for as much as 15 – 20% of global revenue in Q4. TSL noted an increase in US module orders financed by state and city solar programs in California and Florida.
For Solarfun, as of Q2, percentage of global revenue in the US is small, maybe around 1%, but expected to ramp in Q3 and Q4. A recent sales office opened in California and alliances formed with US strategic partners.
Stay tuned. The Novogradac Financing Renewable Energy Conference will meet in Washington, D.C. November 11th and 12th and will convene solar developers and financiers and should provide some valuable insights.
Disclosure: Author owns share in the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF (TAN), which has holdings in ESLR, TSL and SOLF.

Complete Story »]]> ESLR TSL SOLF TAN Chris Cather Renewable Energy Finance Forum: Looking to Washington for Guidance on New Financing http://seekingalpha.com/article/146978-renewable-energy-finance-forum-looking-to-washington-for-guidance-on-new-financing?source=feed 146978 The PowerPoint slide said it all: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A dramatically transformed financial landscape was the setting for the late June Renewable Energy Finance Forum (REFF) – Wall Street in midtown Manhattan. This year’s REFF brought together renewable energy industry leaders and sent a message to Washington: give us guidance on the promised grants and loan guarantees to get capital flowing to finance deals in solar, wind and other cleantech sectors.

]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 07:11:07 -0400 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

The PowerPoint slide said it all: Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

A dramatically transformed financial landscape was the setting for the late June Renewable Energy Finance Forum (REFF) – Wall Street in midtown Manhattan. This year’s REFF brought together renewable energy industry leaders and sent a message to Washington: give us guidance on the promised grants and loan guarantees to get capital flowing to finance deals in solar, wind and other cleantech sectors.


Complete Story »]]> GEX SPY Chris Cather Marc Lasry and Mark Fisher: Navigating the Crisis Past, Present and Future http://seekingalpha.com/article/124246-marc-lasry-and-mark-fisher-navigating-the-crisis-past-present-and-future?source=feed 124246

Opinions weren’t entirely grim at the Wharton Hedge Fund Conference on February 20th: a continuing industry shake-out will be offset by a historically unprecedented opportunity to buy world-class companies at low valuations.

]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 04:40:41 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

Opinions weren’t entirely grim at the Wharton Hedge Fund Conference on February 20th: a continuing industry shake-out will be offset by a historically unprecedented opportunity to buy world-class companies at low valuations.


Complete Story »]]> TRMP DV STRA LCC Chris Cather First Solar's New Revenue Stream http://seekingalpha.com/article/121662-first-solar-s-new-revenue-stream?source=feed 121662 First Solar (FSLR) is at it again. Along with its commercial and residential rooftop, and free field power plant segments, the thin-film solar module manufacturer has a lucrative new revenue stream. Call it the utility rooftop segment.

First Solar supplied modules and equipment for a Southern California Edison 2.2MW commercial rooftop project completed December 1st of last year in Fontana, California. And as one of the solar industry’s leaders, won the supplier bid for the second utility rooftop project of 1 MW in Chino.

]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 03:33:14 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

First Solar (FSLR) is at it again. Along with its commercial and residential rooftop, and free field power plant segments, the thin-film solar module manufacturer has a lucrative new revenue stream. Call it the utility rooftop segment.

First Solar supplied modules and equipment for a Southern California Edison 2.2MW commercial rooftop project completed December 1st of last year in Fontana, California. And as one of the solar industry’s leaders, won the supplier bid for the second utility rooftop project of 1 MW in Chino.


Complete Story »]]> FSLR KWT TAN Chris Cather Why I'm Bullish on the Solar Sector http://seekingalpha.com/article/108303-why-i-m-bullish-on-the-solar-sector?source=feed 108303 A few weeks ago in preparation for Suntech Power’s (STP) third quarter earnings call on November 20th, I presented three points to consider as a framework for analysis.

Since that article on November 9th, Suntech is down about 40% with six downgrades. Investors responded negatively to third quarter results that missed earnings and reduced guidance on production in 2008 and 2009 owing to a depreciating Euro and the credit crunch.

]]> Fri, 28 Nov 2008 02:50:07 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

A few weeks ago in preparation for Suntech Power’s (STP) third quarter earnings call on November 20th, I presented three points to consider as a framework for analysis.

Since that article on November 9th, Suntech is down about 40% with six downgrades. Investors responded negatively to third quarter results that missed earnings and reduced guidance on production in 2008 and 2009 owing to a depreciating Euro and the credit crunch.


Complete Story »]]> STP TAN KWT ESLR CSIQ JASO SPWRA FSLR Chris Cather Investable Solar Sector Outlook http://seekingalpha.com/article/107154-investable-solar-sector-outlook?source=feed 107154 Novogradac Financing Renewable Energy Conference, Washington, D.C., November 12 – 14

Day One

]]> Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:07:10 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

Novogradac Financing Renewable Energy Conference, Washington, D.C., November 12 – 14

Day One


Complete Story »]]> FSLR SPWRA STP ESLR TAN JASO Chris Cather SunTech Power: Three Points to Consider for Q3 Earnings http://seekingalpha.com/article/104936-suntech-power-three-points-to-consider-for-q3-earnings?source=feed 104936 What should investors watch for on the China-based solar module manufacturer Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) third quarter earnings call on November 20?

Listening to earnings calls or reading the transcript afterward can be overwhelming for the individual investor. But, with the right roadmap, investors can filter out the information they need.

]]> Sun, 09 Nov 2008 06:21:30 -0500 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

What should investors watch for on the China-based solar module manufacturer Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) third quarter earnings call on November 20?

Listening to earnings calls or reading the transcript afterward can be overwhelming for the individual investor. But, with the right roadmap, investors can filter out the information they need.


Complete Story »]]> STP Chris Cather Solar Stocks on Sale http://seekingalpha.com/article/101671-solar-stocks-on-sale?source=feed 101671 Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, reiterated his mantra last week in a New York Times op-ed: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There is no better time for green value investors to heed that advice than right now.

But, with the market meltdown and recent solar sector downgrades by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and others, green investors might be turning green about now. Goldman downgraded both First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) and SunPower (NSDQ: SPWRA) and Canaccord Adams continued the carnage with JA Solar (NSDQ: JASO).

]]> Fri, 24 Oct 2008 04:12:47 -0400 Chris Cather Chris Cather submits:

Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, reiterated his mantra last week in a New York Times op-ed: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There is no better time for green value investors to heed that advice than right now.

But, with the market meltdown and recent solar sector downgrades by Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and others, green investors might be turning green about now. Goldman downgraded both First Solar (NSDQ: FSLR) and SunPower (NSDQ: SPWRA) and Canaccord Adams continued the carnage with JA Solar (NSDQ: JASO).


Complete Story »]]> FSLR TAN SPWRA JASO STP ESLR CSIQ Chris Cather