Chris Ciovacco

New Bullish Signals Emerge

Please see my response posted on this page.


On Aug 03 05:46 PM Archman Investor wrote:

> Rah Rah Siss Boom Bah!!!
> Chris Ciovacco, Chris Ciovacco,
> Rah Rah Rah.
>
> Way to go. Asset gathers doing "repeat" articles with updated charts
> in a further attempt to "lure" and "excite" mom and pop investors
> to jump into the market after a 45% run.
>
> Almost 95% of companies earnings were from asset sales, layoffs,
> and every other cost cutting measure under the sun. Revenue at most
> companies was down 30% YOY.
> Unemployment continues to go up.
> The dollar continues to get destroyed.
> Debts are still being defaulted on at an alarming rate.
>
> What you have here is an "asset gatherer" pumping the market in whatever
> way he can so they can keep collecting assets and gathering fees,
> regardless of how much money people end up losing.
>
> I bought back at S & P 680 where people "should" have been buying
> stocks, not 48% higher in a market dominated by terrible earnings,
> media hype, taxpayer money masquerading as "bank profits".
>
> When the powers that be decide enough has been made on the upside
> and its time for the serious downside, you can bet your bottom dollar
> that asset gatherers like Mr. Ciovacco are still going to be wealthy
> after the damage has been done VS mom and pop americans who are going
> to be sitting around wondering WTF happened to their money.

New Bullish Signals Emerge

For the record, below are dated excerpts from articles posted on Seeking Alpha. The reader can decide for themselves if our research has represented both the bullish and bearish side of the ledger in the past. Some of the bearish excerpts below could have proved valuable to many investors.

The comments below from a February 2008 (not 2009) article are far from pumping any market.

Technical Breakdowns May Call For More Hedging: Based on recent technical breakdowns in many risk-based investments (see Graph 1), the probability of investors incurring additional losses over an extended period of time has increased. Both the technical and fundamental outlook now favors bearish outcomes over bullish outcomes. In addition to the cash we have raised in recent months, it is now prudent to prepare for the possibility of adding additional hedging vehicles to our portfolios. While favorable outcomes are still possible, they are no longer probable.
Full article posted on 2-13-2008:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This article was from March 27, 2008:
Market Still Unattractive - Not Much Has Changed: You do not need to be a Certified Market Technician to see that financial stocks remain firmly in a downtrend. The best time to invest is when you have both positive fundamentals and positive market action (or technicals/charts). It is very difficult to say the charts look good (yet), and nearly impossible to say the fundamentals look good. There is not enough evidence in either the fundamentals or the technicals to put significant amounts of capital at risk in stocks.
Full Article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

The text below from a July 28, 2008 article was written months before the height of the credit crisis:

Risk Management in Trending Markets: While financial stocks have hit a violent intermediate bottom and could rally for a while longer the odds favor lower lows in the months ahead as housing prices continue to decline. The chart below illustrates the structural nature of the problems facing the housing and financial industry. There are fundamental reasons financial stocks have been hit so hard, reasons which go way beyond short selling. Additional bank failures in the coming months would not come as a surprise, which is supported by the rapid deterioration of the sector. Since our economy has become so dependent on the availability and use of credit, these problems will continue to impact U.S. and global growth.

Full article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This from August 31, 2008:
Thursday's Stock Rally Means Little to Trends: Similarly, the 1.00% move to the upside in foreign stocks as of Thursday morning has no impact on the primary trend, which remains down. Financial stocks, shown below, could move quite a bit higher without doing any damage to the primary trend, which remains firmly down. Commercial real estate (below) has done nothing yet to indicate any basis for optimism. The bond market is not forecasting better times ahead.
Full article:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

This from February 12, 2009 a few weeks before the markets made their lowest lows:
Market Base: Not Necessarily Bullish: The primary trend in stocks remains down, which means the odds favor lower lows after this base. If we were in a bull market, odds would favor higher highs after a base. We are not in a bull market.
seekingalpha.com/artic...