Comments on Chris Damas' articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/chris-damas/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/180354-fertilizer-mergers-i-asked-but-santa-hasn-t-delivered-yet?source=feed#comment-827413 827413 Wed, 30 Dec 2009 23:38:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/180354-fertilizer-mergers-i-asked-but-santa-hasn-t-delivered-yet?source=feed#comment-826593 826593 Wed, 30 Dec 2009 12:43:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-388867 388867 Sat, 14 Feb 2009 22:59:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-299853 299853 What role does ethanol play in a TBoone world or an all electric > concept?]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:29:09 -0500
The same assumption yields abundant green electrical power and with it the energy for plug-in hybrid vehicles, whether or not next-generation vehicles are alcohol or methane-powered.

Nevertheless, cellulosic gasoline, like that being developed by George Huber's group (www.nsf.gov/news/news_...) embodies the prospect of being a green transportation fuel that can spare cash-strapped automakers (and customers) the need to develop and field new (and more complex--read more expensive) hybrid automotive drivetrains.

Cellulosic methanol, by the way, probably not as hard an R&D task as the fuels mentioned above, is a convenient feedstock for making dimethyl ether, a green substitute for petroleum-based diesel fuel.


On Sep 25 10:56 AM paultaut wrote:

> What role does ethanol play in a TBoone world or an all electric
> concept?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-296521 296521 Sun, 02 Nov 2008 15:40:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-292213 292213 Tue, 28 Oct 2008 06:39:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-291092 291092 Sun, 26 Oct 2008 20:37:24 -0400
I note ADM will announce it's first quarter on November 4th so you can get a better appreciation of what the company's status and plans are. They say they are pursuing advanced biofuels with ConocoPhillips but don't give any detail.

Since writing the piece above, the Wall Street and major bank credit meltdown triggered the Paulson $750 billion "bailout" plan, and both stock markets and commodity prices have declined sharply. A number of deals have probably gone off the table due to fears of a global recession and/or lack of financing.

On the other hand, we have seen gross crush spreads on corn ethanol turn positive (before overhead, taxes and interest on debt). New crop corn is bid $3.55-70/bushel at VeraSun's plants which is almost half of what they said their cost would be for Q3. I think ethanol is seasonally weak this time of year as production overtakes the mandate, but should firm up when the 2009 10.5 billion gallon mandate kicks in for 2009.

November delivery at Chicago EtOH recently went higher than RBOB for the first time in over a year.
Tempering my enthusiasm for US ethanol is the fact the devaluation of the Brazilian real from 60 cents at the beginning of September to about 42.5 cents will give them a big incentive to export excess ethanol, especially through the Caribbean loophole.

On the positive side, Obama seems likely to get into the White House and there is also the possibility of a Democratic hat trick (President, House, fillibuster-proof Senate).

Which could mean corn ethanol producers and all the businesses they support will be coddled and protected like an overly-protected nephew or niece is supported by a rich relative. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-285677 285677 Sun, 19 Oct 2008 12:29:04 -0400 thank you

Maria Rodriguez
mrodriguezgudenus1@bab...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-279374 279374 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:11:39 -0400 I am a business student conducting a research report on a potential merger between ADM and VeraSun. I was wondering if you could contact me so that I can ask you a few specific questions.
Thank you,
Jim (jzografos1@babson.edu)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-273598 273598 Sat, 04 Oct 2008 17:54:47 -0400 They want money but nobody is so stupid to believe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-270084 270084 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:29:57 -0400
The VeraSun plants are in the midwest far from the biomass that the VRNM process would typically use, such as wood waste. So I don't think BP would be interested.

Add to the possible suitor list, Abengoa Bioenergy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-268489 268489 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:39:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-266466 266466 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 18:28:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-266074 266074 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 12:43:05 -0400
On the flip side, Obama may state that he supports continued subsidies for ethanol, but when it comes right down to it that support may waiver when and if we face an actual crop production disaster.

So far, as we head into harvest, production appears to be near or around average. The fear of a production downturn alone sent corn prices higher, to above $8.00 on the July 2009 futures. What do you believe would occur if a true production disruption were to take place?

The fact remains we need to find ways to support the plants currently in operation, but to believe that the corn based ethanol business will continue to grow is realistically impossible. The corn demand base for ethanol and other industrial products is close to its peak. It may not be long before we are forced to choose between using corn for ethanol or using it for livestock feed and exports.

As we stand right now 2009 could be a far more interesting year than 2008 in both the corn and soybean markets. We may not have enough tillable acres to cover the continued increase in demand. Coupled with an increase in demand and input costs on the farm, we could witness quite the downturn in corn production, or at least a significant downturn in ending stocks driving corn prices drastically higher.

To place VeraSun's survival solely on the back of an Obama presidency, as I said earlier, is quite the stretch. There are an awful lot of outside factors at play when looking at the future of VeraSun and other ethanol plants alike.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-264783 264783 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 10:56:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-264591 264591 jack]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 08:45:01 -0400 > jack]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97107-verasun-energy-buyout-candidate-if-obama-wins?source=feed#comment-263504 263504 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:35:09 -0400
If you want to profitably make ethanol for fuel you must use a feedstock that is an ORDER OF MAGINITUDE cheaper than corn. Sugarcane works already, (just ask CZZ) and optimistic scientists seem to think wood chips or corn stover (corn stalks and husks) are only a "few years" from commercial viability. Time will tell what will work in the long term but the only reason it ever looked reasonable to turn grain into fuel was because of goverment crop subsidies that were as foolish as they were massive.

Toyota, Honda, and T.Boone Pickens look to have it just about right.

-y2kurtus]]>