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Chris DeMuth Jr.  

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  • Scarlett Johansson Was Right About SodaStream
    Thu, Feb. 12 SODA 47 Comments

    Summary

    • SODA was a short idea of ours that declined over 62% since we last wrote about it.
    • It is a broken growth story stock which now trades at an attractive valuation.
    • I would consider covering any short and would consider it as a long CO2 refilling opportunity.
  • Long Immigration Reform With American Apparel
    Wed, Feb. 11 APP 18 Comments

    Summary

    • American Apparel is a bargain hidden behind a colorful and controversial past.
    • It was on the verge of bankruptcy, nearly crushed by immigration and accounting issues.
    • With immigration forbearance, AAP could thrive as a private company.
  • Don't Discount Bill Ackman
    Wed, Feb. 11 PSHZF 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Bill Ackman is an immodest man with much to be immodest about.
    • You can invest alongside him at a discount via PSH.
    • PSH will probably gain substantially as that discount goes away.
  • Orbital ATK: Now It's Just A Matter Of Rocket Science
     • Wed, Feb. 11 OA 12 Comments

    Summary

    • ATK completed its merger with Orbital Sciences, but did it work for shareholders?
    • The combined market caps increased only by 2% since the deal was announced.
    • The merged company is worth at least 10% more than it costs... and maybe much more than that.
  • Bettin' On Putin's Russia
    Wed, Feb. 11 RUSS 25 Comments

    Summary

    • RUSS has declined by slightly more than 50% since our prior article.
    • Based on its valuation, it is likely to decline further over time.
    • Russia’s leadership is stable and their market is cheap.
  • Congratulations Covidien: You Escaped In Time
    Wed, Feb. 11 SLXP 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Walgreens and Shire were bullied into abandoning legal tax strategies.
    • Medtronic and Covidien stood up to the same shakedown attempt.
    • Salix has over 20% upside and could be the next pharma M&A target.
  • CVRs - The Good, The Bad And The Ugly
    Wed, Feb. 11 SWY, VRX, AGN 12 Comments

    Summary

    • CVRs are an increasingly common part of M&A.
    • They tend to be mispriced, are uncorrelated with equities, and automatically return capital.
    • Here is how they work and a recent example of how to profitably exploit them.
  • Mo' Money, Mo' Cash Deals With Attractive Spreads
    Editors' Pick • Fri, Jan. 9 COV, MDT, BCE 22 Comments

    Summary

    • Merger arbitrage spreads widened substantially in October 2014; many are still wide.
    • Here is the universe of merger arbitrage spreads that might be worth owning.
    • Specifically, here are four opportunities with spreads that appear to be wide for historical reasons.
  • The Limited Vista Brings Us Back To Orbital Sciences
       • Fri, Jan. 9 OA 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Some of the enthusiasm for VSTO is out of date.
    • Based on the most recent filings, growth has cooled down.
    • ORB is worth about $35 per share. Here is why.
  • Premier Exhibitions: Worse Voyage Than The Titanic's?
    Wed, Jan. 7 PRXI 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Over a year ago, I moderated a debate between a bull and bear on the merits of investing in PRXI.
    • Today, I am making the second debate decision in favor of the PRXI bear.
    • The winner was kind enough to answer a few questions on his debate victory.
  • Orbital Sciences Could Explode... Again
       • Dec. 24, 2014 OA 43 Comments

    Summary

    • Occasionally one can find attractive, wide spreads around the periphery of merger arbitrage.
    • One exploitable example from today's market is ATK-ORB.
    • We own ORB, a security that costs about $25 and is worth about $35. Here is why.
  • Chris DeMuth, Jr. Positions For 2015: Banking M&A, Milestone Payments, Litigation Results
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 23, 2014 RVP 85 Comments

    Summary

    • Event driven investing is just one of the species of value investing.
    • 2014 has been a year of squeeze outs, contingent rights and appraisal litigation.
    • 2015 will be a year of banking M&A, milestone payments and litigation results.
    • Next month will begin a New Year but not a New Era – just another year to look for misplaced bets and occasionally to find one.
  • Buying Gold Beneath Spot
       • Dec. 22, 2014 GTU, GLD 47 Comments

    Summary

    • Gold is many things – it is a longstanding store of value, systemic insurance, and money.
    • Gold is frequently bought at a premium to its spot price; here is how to buy it at a discount instead.
    • While buying gold at an 8% discount, one can also hedge while clipping annual premiums of 7-20%.
  • Why Write On Seeking Alpha?
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 21, 2014 AZSEY, UBAAF 184 Comments

    Summary

    • Organize and ship your thoughts, connect, make your catalysts, reach your audience, and get paid.
    • I write if I can say "yes" to the following: Is it true? Useful to readers? Strategic to Rangeley Capital?
    • Be a small part of crowdsourcing as it supplants a reliance on expert authorities.
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes
    Dec. 18, 2014 RUSS 139 Comments

    Summary

    • To exploit the constant leverage trap for profit, Rangeley Capital shorts inverse and leveraged ETFs.
    • Over the past 5 years, this has been a successful strategy for a diversified and conservatively sized exposure.
    • Today, there are four such ETFs priced at extremes that may be worth considering as shorts via equity or options.
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP
       • Dec. 17, 2014 BNCC 88 Comments

    Summary

    • Before each year starts, Rangeley Capital writes our best idea for the subsequent Jan 1-Dec 31.
    • This year, we focused on something that is unlikely to lose value in the next year.
    • We looked for an investment idea with an upside return of over 50%. Here is what we found.
  • GoPro's CEO Is Stoked... But Selling
       • Dec. 16, 2014 GPRO 71 Comments

    Summary

    • In 2014, Rangeley Capital has found our favorite short ideas in the frothy IPO market.
    • One such opportunity has been GPRO, an aggressively hyped stock in a faddish gizmo company.
    • GPRO has received competition for Christmas this year as top electronics companies flood the action camera market.
  • The Great Debate Winner - Bull Vs. Bear On Gramercy Property Trust
    Dec. 16, 2014 GPT 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Over a year ago, I moderated a debate between a bull and bear on the merits of investing in GPT.
    • This was one in a series of similar debates on Seeking Alpha.
    • Today, I am calling the first debate in favor of the GPT bull. The winner was kind enough to answer a few questions on his debate victory and recent developments.
  • 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing
    Editors' Pick • Dec. 1, 2014 STRZA, DTV, YHOO 31 Comments

    Summary

    • This article presents our best ideas from the past seven years.
    • Here are the lessons that I have learned over the last seven years of event-driven investing that will guide me in the years to come.
    • Our best idea for 2015, following this approach, will be released in the coming weeks.
  • Best Idea For 2014: Sanofi Rights Post-FDA Approval
       • Nov. 27, 2014 GCVRZ 160 Comments

    Summary

    • The Sanofi right tied to Lemtrada is Rangeley Capital's best idea for 2014.
    • Recently the FDA approved Lemtrada; here is our updated analysis.
    • This idea is backed by high conviction and a large investment; here is why.
  • Could Gramercy Double Again?
       • Nov. 14, 2014 GPT 35 Comments

    Summary

    • Since we invested, management has executed a turnaround and doubled the share price.
    • In the past few years, they created substantial value by putting new capital to work.
    • In the next few years, they could increase their dividend, grow opportunistically, and sell Gramercy... possibly doubling their share price again.
  • I Was Inverted With Shire
       • Oct. 7, 2014 SHPG 49 Comments

    Summary

    • Some of Rangeley Capital's largest merger arbitrage exposures are deals involving tax inversions.
    • Political noise have driven their share prices down further than their deal risks justify.
    • Here are the opportunities to make from 10-20% annualized returns on deals likely to close.
  • QLT Left At The Altar
       • Oct. 1, 2014 QLTI 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Rangeley Capital owns shares of AUXL, a takeover candidate likely to break its deal with QLTI.
    • We wrote in the past that AUXL is worth over $35 per share to a buyer... but what about QLTI?
    • The spurned merger partner appears at least 10% undervalued with over 40% upside in a new deal.
  • Loral's Next (And Last) Chapter
       • Aug. 8, 2014 LORL 37 Comments

    Summary

    • Loral is going to be sold. The primary question is when.
    • The intrinsic value of Loral as of the end of 2013 was $85 per share without any control premium.
    • The intrinsic value of Loral will continue to increase throughout 2014 as the value of Loral's Telesat stake increases.
  • CMS Bancorp And... One Million Dollars
       • Jul. 17, 2014 CMSB 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Revealing answers to the 5 key questions about CMS Bancorp.
    • CMS' value, history, dramatically failed merger, litigation, and future.
    • This opportunity offers safety, a discount to intrinsic value, and a 36% return.
  • Loral - To Sell Or Not To Sell Is Not The Question
       • Jul. 15, 2014 LORL 38 Comments

    Summary

    • Loral is in the final chapter of its corporate life and is in the process of selling its last significant asset, Telesat.
    • The ‘noise’ around the sale of Loral is disguising the true value of Telesat’s business.
    • By purchasing shares of Loral, one gets Telesat’s valuable and growing business for a significant discount.
  • Ashraf Eassa On Seeking Alpha: Millions And Millions Well Served
    Apr. 12, 2014 LSI, SPRD, YHOO 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Ashraf Eassa Discusses Writing for Seeking Alpha -- the Good, the Bad, and The Ugly (But There Was No Ugly).
    • The Good: Spreadtrum and LSI.
    • The Bad: Medical Marijuana.
  • Valuable Insights And Seeking Alpha
    Editors' Pick • Apr. 3, 2014 CRDS, CSCO, FUJIY 91 Comments

    Summary

    • Who is Valuable Insights and what has he been working on? I will answer one of those questions.
    • "I expect value investing to continue to work as an investing discipline until human nature changes, which I don’t see as likely." - Valuable Insights.
    • "If I didn’t know a given stock price, what do I believe it is worth based on my view of the company and its fundamentals?" - Valuable Insights.
  • The Most Interesting Investment In The World: Ethanex Energy
     • Apr. 1, 2014 EHTEQ 15 Comments

    Summary

    • If you really think you know something then you should do it in a big way.
    • Where are the truly undervalued securities? It is in the overlooked, deep dark reaches of the markets. The boomed out, the busted, the complex, and the convoluted.
    • Ethanex Energy (EHTEQ) was such an opportunity. Here is the story of how this idea made investors over 2,000% thus far.
  • Time Warner's Triple Play Package: The Multi-Bidder Contest For Time Warner Cable
       • Feb. 21, 2014 TWC 12 Comments

    Summary

    • One of Rangeley Capital's themes for 2014 is cable industry consolidation.
    • The merger arbitrage spread in the CMCSA-TWC deal is wide.
    • This wide spread is an attractive investment opportunity relative to its risks.
  • A Soldier Returns From War And Faces His Financial Future In 8 Steps
    Feb. 18, 2014 28 Comments

    Summary

    • Recently, a decorated veteran asked for my help in thinking about his transition to civilian life.
    • Here are the eight steps that I recommended in financially planning for civilian life.
    • Anyone could take advantage of each of these eight steps.
  • Straightening Out Auxilium Pharma's Value
       • Feb. 18, 2014 AUXL 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Auxilium is a large position in Rangeley Capital's portfolio; here is why.
    • As a standalone business, Auxilium is significantly undervalued.
    • To a buyer such as Endo, Auxilium is worth over $35 per share.