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Chris DeMuth Jr.

 
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  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Thanks. I downplayed what I think it is worth to a buyer. $1.5 mil of income while reducing non-interest expenses by at least $2 mil would make it worth over $30/share in a deal. $25-28 is the compromise.
    Dec 17, 2014. 06:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro's CEO Is Stoked... But Selling [View article]
    In the third quarter of 2014, GPRO entered the quarter with $80.4M of net inventory. They were able to generate $279 million of revenue during the quarter with product cost of $155.9 million. Using the same ratio of product cost to starting inventory for the fourth quarter, $117 million of inventory would support product cost of $227 million at a gross margin of 44%. This would yield fourth quarter revenue of about $405 million. This is somewhat short of the $540 million forecast. They say that they have ramped up their production so this may not be a problem. However, in checking on Amazon and in Best Buy, there are few available in the low and medium price range. Maybe they already produced them and they are sold out. Maybe they will get here this week. The risk at Christmas is if they are one week late, then they will need a price cut to move them in January and the dealers will look to GoPro to foot the bill.
    Dec 17, 2014. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro's CEO Is Stoked... But Selling [View article]
    Great question. It is something that we are very interested in but not something that we are ready to discuss. -C
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    MS drug has the potential to change lives: http://bit.ly/1wDdxPa
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Mike, I am very interested in this question, but don't know enough to answer intelligently. Could you explain what Overstock is doing? Thanks/sorry. -C
    Dec 16, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Debate Winner - Bull Vs. Bear On Gramercy Property Trust [View article]
    Was the bull right or just lucky? I don't know. Every once in a while when I visit my money bin, I think about sorting the contents into "right" piles and "lucky piles". But so far, I've declined. I like it all the same and plan to keep my lucky money along with the right money.

    My sense is that success is a combination of brains, hard work, and luck. Also, my sense is that successful people generally prefer to downplay luck. Over the short-term, it is probably mostly luck. Over a statistically significant longer-term, the role of luck starts to dissipate.

    I know the winner well (rank cronyism!) and think he has tons of brains. As for luck, he also appears incredibly lucky. He just wins so many different random things. I have told my children about him and the lesson that I try to teach is that he wins a lot because he works hard and is constantly competing. He competes at a very high level, but mostly just throws his hat in the ring every chance he gets. When he looks back someday to debate whether that was luck or work, I expect that he will be reflecting from some extremely comfortable environs.

    To sort this out, I am hereby proposing the next debate topic: "Resolved - between November 27, 2013 and December 16, 2014, common shares of Gramercy Property Trust (GPT) have had a total return in excess of that of the SPY ETF during the same period". I volunteer to serve as the moderator yet again. While I decline to take sides, I hope that this debate might find a bull or two.

    To entice interest, I propose a friendly side wager equal to a return equal to the spread of GPT-SPY performance during the interim at an order of magnitude not to exceed ten million dollars awarded to the debater who wins the day at the expense of the loser.
    Dec 16, 2014. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Debate Winner - Bull Vs. Bear On Gramercy Property Trust [View article]
    I am 100% certain that the bull won if only because I appointed me judge. The S&P 500 total return, which I don't have any view on in terms of that being the standard, is up under 12% while GPT is up over 19% since the debate. As for volatility, if I understood its relevance, I would probably care about it more. As it stands, I am going to stick with my pick. Rank cronyism? Guilty. Arbitrary deadline for the winner tied closely to when I felt like thinking about this? Yes. Any conflicts of interest to report? Oh, massively. But it beat the S&P 500, which I don't much care about as I pay for food with absolute performance instead of relative performance. Volatility, as best as I can understand its significance, is a thinking substitute and a poor one at that. Instead of relying on a proxy for fundamental analysis, I prefer to find something undervalued, buy it, and then let the market price (the very premise of the investment being that the market price not only can be wrong but is wrong in the specific case of the given investment) do what it does, which is whatever it wants for any reason or no reason at all.
    Dec 16, 2014. 09:32 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of Banking: A LendingClub Story [View article]
    So far, I think that the Lending Club (LC) direct share program has been the best P2P investing opportunity. It will be interesting to see if other pre-IPO P2P companies set up similar opportunities. To discuss further, please check out the Peer To Peer Investing Forum on Seeking Alpha: http://bit.ly/134e00S.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Turn Steel Into Gold With ALJ Regional Holdings [View article]
    Thanks, bazooooka. Well, I was onto some pretty dumb ideas in 2012/2013, too! Happily they have netted out to keep mac and cheese/hot dogs on the table each night.
    Dec 15, 2014. 06:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Actively Managed ETFs Quick to Add Lending Club: http://bit.ly/1DCVihY
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Lending Club loans some good news for On Deck in IPO: http://bit.ly/1uPuJNc
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Lending Club (LC) Price Target Raised to $31 at BTIG: http://bit.ly/1zYFIcn
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Banks are taking a risk by treating peer-to-peer lenders lightly: http://on.ft.com/1vTbHVw
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Lend Your Capital To LendingClub? [View article]
    Interesting article; if you're interested in discussing the topic further, please check out the Peer To Peer Investing Forum on Seeking Alpha here: http://bit.ly/134e00S
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peer To Peer Investing Forum [View instapost]
    Hi Mike, I described my tactics for account syndication elsewhere, but in short that is the number of separate entities between four people. For example, joint accounts in various combinations, trusts in various combinations, and partnerships. -C
    Dec 15, 2014. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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