• Chris DeMuth Jr.
    I am working on my thesis on $LF. Any views on that name?
    8/30/13
    Reply (46)
    • bd4uandu: It seems a play on a old children's game. Subliminally it says if you use our products your child will leap ahead of the pack. JMO
      8/30/13
    • wheelz23: takeover target, christmas time trade, needs product expansion
      8/30/13
    • Ocean Man: Positive market share news all the time, but seems highly manipulated by shorts and big money. I don't say that about many stocks, but this
      8/30/13
    • Ocean Man: one moves in very strange ways that don't make sense. Good co, odd stock.
      8/30/13
    • jaha98: Undervalued and over manipulated! Needs to expand on name and be more aggressive in the market share. Lots of shorts but lots of potential.
      8/30/13
    • jaha98: Agree potential takeover target.
      8/30/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: Thanks. Lots of shorts = lots of potential.
      8/30/13
    • jaha98: Can u imagine if a Disney bought LF and combined there brand content with LF through Leap pads and educational content for Children
      8/30/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: My view is that the range of outcomes is between the low teens and high teens depending upon whether it is a financial or strategic buyer.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: There are a lot of similarities to Apple. Lots of cash and a few products make up for almost all their profits.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: As a standalone company the stock price will always be discounted for risk of competition and the potential for a failed product launch.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: Unless they are going to sell they should buy back stock (they should have done it when the stock was in the 8's) or a special dividend.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: There would be a lot of synergies and benefits if they sold to Mattel or Hasbro, but who knows if/when that might happen.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: Biggest risks right now are they make an acquisition (which they've mentioned on conf calls) or run into issues with newly launched Ultra.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: I sold a few weeks ago in the 11's (luckily) and stock has been crushed since. I may go back in, but based on history there is no rush.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: Not many catalysts till the end of year and you can probably monitor sales over the holidays before buying in.
      8/30/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: January puts look expensive to me. One could consider writing $10 puts for $1.10 which I would submit may be an attractive proposition.
      8/30/13
    • gsterling: Earnings for 4Q are in February so depends on how you want to play it.
      8/31/13
    • gsterling: Of course earnings were really good last Feb and shorts drove price down anyway.
      8/31/13
    • jaginger: Wow, $LF write-up coming. Crazy coincidence, or did my email spark something?! You know my thoughts, i'll post more comments on the article
      8/31/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: I had been mulling this one over, but your e-mail definitely encouraged me to pull together my thoughts and caused an article to take form.
      9/1/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: So, thanks! (Unless it turns out to be a terrible investment and/or article, then maybe we can share a trash can fire under a bridge).
      9/1/13
    • jaginger: LOL! I sure hope it doesn't come to that. But, I expect you'd be prepared nonetheless...
      9/1/13
    • wheelz23: looks like somebody joined you on your LF idea: http://seekingalpha.com/a/zr28
      9/3/13
    • jaginger: And $LF is getting much cheaper today on BMO d/g and reduction in price target from $15 to $10. http://bit.ly/15vfp1p
      9/3/13
    • jaginger: Time is ripe for some buying
      9/3/13
    • wheelz23: i'm still waiting...i think they want to bring the price down some more
      9/3/13
    • toddro: I would love to read your write-up, Chris. Been evaluating them for some time and seeing the stock below 8.50 now has me intrigued...
      9/4/13
    • Ocean Man: Glad I listened to wheelz. Just picked some up for $8.44. Hurry up with that article Chris! LOL.
      9/4/13
    • jaginger: Risk/reward ratio is getting extremely attractive. Could you use this article to display an example of your Kelly bet sizing, Chris?
      9/4/13
    • jaginger: I'd be interested to see how specifically you determine the input factors for Kelly and translate into a potential portfolio allocation.
      9/4/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: That would be a good idea. This is a theoretical event with a decent probability of a sale and a value in a strategic deal in the teens.
      9/4/13
    • Chris DeMuth Jr.: Article in process, but downside valuation is a bit tricky. Not obvious that it is worth much less than where it is even with no deal.
      9/4/13
    • toddro: I'n in with you, OM! Cheers.
      9/4/13
    • wheelz23: look at the chart, 8 seems to be the target that they're trying to drop it to
      9/4/13
    • yongshuai: guys...just look at the extremely low P/E...6.05 is too low...Mattel is at 18...Hasbro at 19...just does not make sense
      9/4/13
    • Ocean Man: At $8.00, I'll double up, name it my Best Idea, and guarantee it beats Hedgeye's Best Idea by year-end.
      9/4/13
    • jaginger: yongshuai, you're right it is cheap, but the 6.05 P/E yahoo shows is distorted by tax items.Earnings will be $.75-.80 so the PE is about 11
      9/4/13
    • wheelz23: who is hedgeye? really, i've never heard of them until the LINE drama...and now KMI? a few wrong calls and they won't have an impact at all
      9/4/13
    • Ocean Man: They're well-known due to tweeting their every thought. I've heard their performance and AUM lag their volume of self-congratulations.
      9/5/13
    • Ocean Man: It got Keith M a seat on Fast Money though LOL.
      9/5/13
    • Ocean Man: I hope his recent picks have fared better than his final Stocktalk - a sell it all call in May 2009. http://bit.ly/14sDxf6
      9/5/13
    • Ocean Man: You may be surprised at some of the people who used to be pretty active around here: http://bit.ly/17x8EWI
      9/5/13
    • Ocean Man: And of course, my all-time favorite: http://bit.ly/s0uWUF
      9/5/13
    • wheelz23: lolololol...look what i found: http://bit.ly/1fBQIiG
      9/5/13
    • toddro: That guy looks familiar...
      9/5/13