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Chris Fernandez

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  • Rick's and Netflix: A Time to Buy, A Time to Short? [View article]
    Hey Dicki,

    For every trade there is a buyer and a seller...both think they are right, and in the short term, both can be right.

    I am looking at short term only.

    NFLX will most likely fall some here, we can make a quick 5-10% on our money, and get out. My stop loss is about 5%, so the risk/reward is vastly in our favor all things considered.

    Indeed time will tell!

    Chris
    May 9 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    Hey Stevie,

    Thanks for the information!

    Let me ask you 2 more questions while we are still in session:

    1 - You seem like a good analyst, why aren't your articles published on SA? You should submit sometime...

    2 - Which do you think will happen based on market demand, economics, valuation, etc.: SPWRB doubling in price in the next 6 months, or FSLR doubling in price ever again?

    Ring, ring...oops, looks like schools out for today...

    Peace.
    May 1 02:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    Steve,

    FSLR had a great quarter, indeed, but I guess I'm not the only "expert" that doesn't know what he's talking about, and sees FSLR as a company on the precipice ready to fall:

    "I am struggling to find a comparable company that was a leader in its industry and managed to dodge the bullet that is killing every other company in the space -- maybe GE during the Jack Welch years," said Kaufman Bros analyst Theodore O'Neill, who has a "sell" rating on First Solar shares.

    "Gross profit margins were up sequentially in a large way, which also just makes this hard to fathom in the environment that we are in," O'Neill said.

    Have fun holding the next "Microsoft".
    Apr 30 02:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    Hey guys,

    A quick note to ease everyone's comments: My post/article was NOT meant to be exhaustive, fully fleshed out, or concerned with getting every single detail right and the metrics spot on.

    It was a piece meant to touch on a broad subject: namely, solar stocks have been beaten down, and those looking for potential contrarian plays in the market, might have something to work with here, with the caveat that a tight stop is in order just in case the industry collapses to a new "resting place" and my contrarian viewpoint is either too soon, or incorrect.

    I appreciate the added information that you guys have provided to help people reading this flesh out the numbers, and the information, lots of well informed readers on this post that added some incredible value!

    Specifically:
    - dzr_greg (thanks for the additional companies!)
    - skv009 (ASP WILL be coming down!),
    - smlcap (Motley Fool usually has decent things to say, I won't bag on them for the information they teach newbie investors),
    - Fred W (MMA was on my watchlist once upon a time! I thought the company was in a sweet spot, unfortunately, they were in the wrong place at the wrong time...but you are 100% right, their portfolio is very lucrative, and someone will step in to take their place!)
    - wisdom.vs.information (agree 100% about FSLR being at or near as good as it's gonna get, and that's why I don't like it, agree also with SPWR having to lower prices dramatically, and cut costs to reach grid parity, and I didn't know about China's infrastructure being so weak, definitely something to look into, thanks for that!)
    - frflyer (you are right about ENER...I meant that they didn't have a competent bus. model, or management team to ever get this thing right, and it was time to bail on them long ago, but you make some damn fine points about their overall contributions.)

    Again, thanks all, and remember, I am just one man, can't possibly cover every single nagging detail that might bug you guys, so that's what these comments are for, keep em coming, cause it adds value to the information we all have.

    Take care,
    Chris


    Apr 29 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    I always know that I wrote a good article when people get pissed off and decide to pipe in some noise. Thanks guys!

    I'll address the comments that deserve attention, and leave the rest for those that want to continue to hate because I struck a nerve and they are long the positions that I said suck, and short the ones I said buy. Good luck guys.

    Freya: I am not a day trader either, but there are certain instances when taking a small loss is a smart play on a contrarian opinion. This is one such case.

    EGF: Tangible book value for WFR is $9.31 per share. Stock is trading well above that.

    TraderMark: Did you read the entire post? I never said China is saving the industry, in fact I listed 6 other reasons, China being one of them, for a possible few select companies, not the entire industry...

    Steve: I guess I better get back to school, so much to learn for little old me...

    Thanks for reading, the good, bad and ugly.

    Chris
    Apr 28 02:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Assumption for GeoEye: Forward Earnings [View article]
    Hey Eric,

    I don't think that EPS will be that high because of depreciation expense as a result of GeoEye-1.

    What you need to look at is the EV/EBITDA, which adds that back in, and using that metric, along with cash flow and potential free cash flow generation, I agree with your overall assessment that GeoEye is still too cheap, albeit not as cheap as it was when it was trading well below $20 a few weeks ago.

    Chris
    Apr 28 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eHealth: Steady as She Goes [View article]
    Hey Cetin,

    To see my positions, you can visit my blog: PeakStocks.com, but yes, I am long this position, and if you actually read my article, in it I stated that it has been the best performer in the PeakStocks.com portfolio since I added it late last year.

    Chris
    Apr 24 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Restaurants: Is a Correction Coming? [View article]
    Hey granger,

    It looks like I was ahead of the curve a little bit, which is ok by me...with CMG reporting tonight blowing away EPS estimates (based on higher prices and tighter cost controls, NOT higher traffic numbers!), and other restaurant stocks are all rising in kind, as shorts I believe are covering their butts just in case.

    I still think we are due for a sharp pullback, we'll see!

    Chris
    Apr 23 02:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye: Back on Track? [View article]
    Sure, but these are all very minor adjustments.

    What matters is how things looked at the end of 2008, and more importantly for us, now that GeoEye-1 is fully operational, and providing usable imagery, what are the numbers looking like as we speak?

    Also, today GeoEye announced an expansion of their MJ Harden subsidiary which I feel is good news and compliments their satellite operations well.

    Chris
    Mar 24 01:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye Earnings Preview: Why the Silence? [View article]
    Actually GeoEye finally updated us that they filed a late 10-K extension with the SEC...it should be due no later than April 1st, and in that time frame, I would also look for their earnings release.

    Chris
    Mar 20 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Concentrated Portfolio of 5-15 Stocks Can Crush the Market [View article]
    Hey guys,

    Thanks for the positive feedback...of course I jest!

    I welcome the haters, and yea, is this an infomercial? Depends on your investing style.

    If you adhere to what I do, and put your results on the line like I do, then you need to be up front and honest as I thought I would be, in letting readers know that they should honestly understand my inputs before investing.

    As for the COKE, KO, oops...everyone makes mistakes, but plucking that item out of a whole article that was trying to make a point is not conducive to what we are trying to do around here in educating the public and hosting our ideas.

    Either way, love me or hate me, it's all up there for you to see, transparency is the name of the game.

    Catch me if you can.

    Chris
    Mar 10 12:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye Earnings Preview: Why the Silence? [View article]
    Hey snail,

    LOL, you aren't completely talking to yourself! See they put my little picture in here so you know it's actually me replying!

    At any rate, the CEO never gives forward guidance, nor does the company...that's purely from analysts. IF the CEO did say that, it was probably a broad strokes statement based on saying that the GeoEye-1 satellite would yield them much higher revenue than in the past.

    Finally, because of GeoEye's business model, any revenue spike typically drops straight to the bottom line, and shows up in a huge way in free cash flow, and cash flow generation as the company has to take a hit on the front portion of the earnings announcement in the form of amortization and depreciation expenses, but gets that back on the cash flow side, and thus GeoEYe should never be valued purely on a PE basis, but on a EV/EBITDA basis, and on cash flow, and margin multiples.

    When you look at what they did in 2007 before their revenue declined, you'll see they generated gobs of free cash flow, and their margins were fat. I look for that to resume immediately.

    Chris
    Mar 10 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the USO ETF a Piece of Junk? [View article]
    I don't think there is anything more I can add that you guys haven't already covered really well.

    As for suggesting shorting USO and going long USL, that is not a good idea at all, even for a day trade.

    This isn't like locking in gains on the "A" or "B" shares spread of a company.

    Again, short term, these are fine ways to play a few week's worth of rapid oil price movement, even a few days the way things have been going lately in oil and other commodities, but longer than that, all bets are off.

    Chris
    Mar 4 01:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rick’s Earnings Preview: Time to Jump Ship? [View article]
    Hey Mysteryman,

    You make some good points, and I agree that Rick's has some trouble.

    As the company is a very small portion of my portfolio, it's not that big of a risk to me, but as for others out there, I would advise to keeping your shares at a very low rate relative to your overall port.

    Rick's has performed well in the past in terms of free cash flow generation, and operational structure, but they went overboard with their acquisitions, and got a little happy with that.

    Now they are paying the price, and I welcome them closing their clubs, and streamlining operations.

    Chris
    Feb 24 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye: New Satellite's Imagery Approved by NGA [View article]
    Hey Glen,

    Did you cash out of your options and convert them instead to common stock?

    I would take the quick move and exit your short term position, and turn it into a longer term one for the ride up to $30 that might take 6 months or so.

    As for an IR contact, I believe there is an interim CFO that is available for those questions and concerns right now.

    I used to talk to Henry Dubois the ex-CFO, but now the interim CFO is taking those calls as well as the CEO which I did an extensive interview with that you can find on my website.

    Chris
    Feb 23 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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