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Chris Fernandez

 
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  • Can uWink Serve 600 Trillion Games? [View article]
    GG,

    Well, let's hope not, otherwise uWink is doomed from the start.

    When I first heard about the uWink concept, I was really excited because I hate ordering from traditional waiters/servers...I don't like the idle chit-chat, and I just want food!

    I don't want anyone serving me, asking me questions, or messing up my order.

    It will be interesting to see which camp wins out...one thing is certain, if the games and the entertainment value are high enough, however your feel about touchscreen ordering, you'll come back because of that value.

    Chris
    Jun 17, 2008. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye Looking Up: Confirms Launch Date and Releases Q1 Earnings [View article]
    Tom,

    I have many reasons for this comment, all backed up by hard core research and analysis.

    In addition, recently, if you look at Google earth, it now says: DigitalGlobe/GeoEye...... appears that DigitalGlobe is losing its share and hold on this segment, and once GeoEye-1 launches, then GeoEye will be the leader for this segment, albeit it really doesn't account form much in terms of revenue.

    At any rate, I have detailed in my research report on GeoEye on my website the reasons for this discrepancy.

    Chris
    Jun 6, 2008. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AuthenTec Proves Itself Again: A Clear Buy [View article]
    I have bout AUTH at various points. My average cost is $13.00, so I am up now a little bit.

    With them blowing away the analysts numbers for next quarter, I now feel way more comfortable recommending them and owning them, even though they will never be cheap, unless that is, they really mess things up, which hasn't happened since they've gone public.

    Chris
    May 2, 2008. 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SoundBite Communications: Cheap Valuation Means It's Time To Buy [View article]
    Hey AKJ,

    Thanks for the feedback and thoughts. I always really appreciate honest and well-thought out counterarguments to my points.

    When people disagree with me, even if very slightly, they often have no reasoning or basis that makes sense, so I thank you for your well-researched and knowledgeable response and additions to my thoughts.

    A few comments to your points:

    1 - The valuation comps were chosen because a) there are NO direct competitors that do what SoundBite does that are public, and b) the companies you mention plus others that I outline in my research report on my website, only have a portion of their revenue derived from AVM solutions, not all of their revenue like SDBT does, c) Varolli withdrew their IPO plans to go public, and if they ever do, I will add them to the comps. list.

    So that being said, I thought it prudent to align the company with others in the "customer contact" space like Livepersn, Nuance (which SDBT actually gets some of their technology from), and then CRM to show that because SDBT's revenues are derives all as SaaS, their multiple should more reflect the companies in that space and NOT the companies in Telecommunications spaces, and the like.

    2 - The Gross margin decline was expected as a result of higher cost of sales of building out their network, lowering prices to remain cost-competitive and like you mentioned, to hire and train more staff.

    The long term Gross margin is likely to remain between 62-65% per SDBT's guidance, and I can live with that, especially with the other margins improving over time.

    3 - So far debt collectors account for a large part of SDBT's revenue, and as I stated on my website in my research report, this actually bodes well for SDBT now and in the future as the economy recovers and people start paying their debt.

    you are also right as to the long term status of contracts. Although SDBT does not have any long term contracts, once the system proves worthwhile to a client, they are less likely to ever switch to a competitor and are more likely to keep coming back to SDBT for all of their customer contact needs that had nothing to do with their original reason for using SDBT.

    4 - Analysts coverage: There are actually 4 analysts covering this stock now, including the 4 that brought SDBT public. They all have strong buys or buy on the stock with price targets pegging SDBT at at least double from where it sits today.

    This is a great play for patient investors, and as I mentioned, you'll get at least a double from here on out, and it could happen very quickly with some news announcements, different analyst coverage, etc.

    The whole point is to be in the stock NOW not after these events take place.

    Thanks again,
    Chris

    You can read my full research report on SDBT for free here:

    peakstocks.com/researc...
    Apr 9, 2008. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAR Corp. Reports: Still a Strong Buy [View article]
    pshah: The CEO talked about this on the conference call, and while it is compelling in the sense of bringing more awareness to maintenance checks and the like, it's not likely to benefit AAR or any other MRO companies in the short term because we are talking about a really small number of planes being affected.

    It might however tighten standards and perhaps in the future cause a slight up-tick in MRO activity as we move forward.

    Chris
    Mar 21, 2008. 01:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AAR Corp. Sell-Off Presents Immediate Buy Opportunity [View article]
    Hey RazzBerry,

    You have the wrong company. I am reporting on AAR (Ticker: AIR) NOT AMR!!

    Totally different company, and focus.

    Please re-read my article, and also click through to my website to read my full research report on AAR. I think you'll be pleasantly surprised at how truly cheap this stock is.

    Remember, AAR has NOTHING at all to do with flying people across the country, only with repairing the planes, and replacing the parts for those airplanes.

    Chris
    Mar 4, 2008. 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SoundBite Communications Hits the Message Home [View article]
    Jigs/Amigo,

    Actually, all you have to do is look at my website:

    PeakStocks.com

    And you'll see that I am open and up-front about what I do and why I do it.

    I own every stock that I recommend, and hey, I don't buy stocks at the top! I buy them when the risk/reward position is in my favor, as it is now.

    Take a serious look at my research report on SoundBite, and you'll get an excellent idea of why I like the stock, and hey amigo, you might even find yourself compelled to press that buy button as well!

    Thanks for reading!
    Chris Fernandez
    Feb 29, 2008. 03:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AuthenTec: Another Great Quarter, Year [View article]
    Yep, the market does weird things. I wrote about why AUTH might be down on my website, and for more updates please visit my website since I don't often check the comments on my articles.

    It's good that you bought in 1/4ths because it's exactly what I advocate doing, and as you see, saves you from getting in at a higher price when the market in general, and semi-stocks in particular, are getting hammered right now.

    If the stock went up on the other hand, well, then you got in as well, so either way it's a winning strategy.

    Thanks for the feedback guys.

    Chris
    Feb 24, 2008. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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