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Chris Fernandez

 
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  • Two Stocks to Consider Shorting [View article]
    Hey guys,

    I agree wholeheartedly about all your comments concerning the TBT...there is risk with every single play out there right now or else we would all be Bernie Madoff, and promising amazing gains over and over again with no downside.

    All the picks that I make are purely speculative in nature and are high risk.

    That's what I specialize in, and it isn't for everyone.

    That being said, I believe that once the institutional money starts flowing out of STRA, it will be a race to the exits...again, I don't think that now is the time to short STRA, we must wait for our entry point with caution, and make sure things are playing out to our advantage.

    Dont worry, as sector rotation starts to happen, STRA will fall with the rest of the secondary education names as Wall Street buys up the next great bull rush in another sector.

    Wait for it...wait for it...and then pounce!

    I'll be watching closely.

    Chris
    Feb 10 01:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    Steve,

    FSLR had a great quarter, indeed, but I guess I'm not the only "expert" that doesn't know what he's talking about, and sees FSLR as a company on the precipice ready to fall:

    "I am struggling to find a comparable company that was a leader in its industry and managed to dodge the bullet that is killing every other company in the space -- maybe GE during the Jack Welch years," said Kaufman Bros analyst Theodore O'Neill, who has a "sell" rating on First Solar shares.

    "Gross profit margins were up sequentially in a large way, which also just makes this hard to fathom in the environment that we are in," O'Neill said.

    Have fun holding the next "Microsoft".
    Apr 30 02:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    I always know that I wrote a good article when people get pissed off and decide to pipe in some noise. Thanks guys!

    I'll address the comments that deserve attention, and leave the rest for those that want to continue to hate because I struck a nerve and they are long the positions that I said suck, and short the ones I said buy. Good luck guys.

    Freya: I am not a day trader either, but there are certain instances when taking a small loss is a smart play on a contrarian opinion. This is one such case.

    EGF: Tangible book value for WFR is $9.31 per share. Stock is trading well above that.

    TraderMark: Did you read the entire post? I never said China is saving the industry, in fact I listed 6 other reasons, China being one of them, for a possible few select companies, not the entire industry...

    Steve: I guess I better get back to school, so much to learn for little old me...

    Thanks for reading, the good, bad and ugly.

    Chris
    Apr 28 02:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strayer Education Suffers from Market Contradictions [View article]
    Hey Chris,

    I agree with your assessment, and might add a few more:

    - The CEO virtually liquidated his entire stake in the company not too long ago, why? He never explained, at least where I've looked.

    - STRA is on the wrong side of being a defensive play, and will be the first place that institutions rotate out of as soon as other sectors roar back

    - Valuation is already top heavy, meaning any "miss" whether real or perceived will crush the stock.

    I'm with your short analysis here, but for me it's all a matter of timing, and of that I have no idea.

    Chris
    May 28 03:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Stocks Look Ripe [View article]
    Hey guys,

    A quick note to ease everyone's comments: My post/article was NOT meant to be exhaustive, fully fleshed out, or concerned with getting every single detail right and the metrics spot on.

    It was a piece meant to touch on a broad subject: namely, solar stocks have been beaten down, and those looking for potential contrarian plays in the market, might have something to work with here, with the caveat that a tight stop is in order just in case the industry collapses to a new "resting place" and my contrarian viewpoint is either too soon, or incorrect.

    I appreciate the added information that you guys have provided to help people reading this flesh out the numbers, and the information, lots of well informed readers on this post that added some incredible value!

    Specifically:
    - dzr_greg (thanks for the additional companies!)
    - skv009 (ASP WILL be coming down!),
    - smlcap (Motley Fool usually has decent things to say, I won't bag on them for the information they teach newbie investors),
    - Fred W (MMA was on my watchlist once upon a time! I thought the company was in a sweet spot, unfortunately, they were in the wrong place at the wrong time...but you are 100% right, their portfolio is very lucrative, and someone will step in to take their place!)
    - wisdom.vs.information (agree 100% about FSLR being at or near as good as it's gonna get, and that's why I don't like it, agree also with SPWR having to lower prices dramatically, and cut costs to reach grid parity, and I didn't know about China's infrastructure being so weak, definitely something to look into, thanks for that!)
    - frflyer (you are right about ENER...I meant that they didn't have a competent bus. model, or management team to ever get this thing right, and it was time to bail on them long ago, but you make some damn fine points about their overall contributions.)

    Again, thanks all, and remember, I am just one man, can't possibly cover every single nagging detail that might bug you guys, so that's what these comments are for, keep em coming, cause it adds value to the information we all have.

    Take care,
    Chris


    Apr 29 02:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye Earnings Preview: Why the Silence? [View article]
    Hey snail,

    LOL, you aren't completely talking to yourself! See they put my little picture in here so you know it's actually me replying!

    At any rate, the CEO never gives forward guidance, nor does the company...that's purely from analysts. IF the CEO did say that, it was probably a broad strokes statement based on saying that the GeoEye-1 satellite would yield them much higher revenue than in the past.

    Finally, because of GeoEye's business model, any revenue spike typically drops straight to the bottom line, and shows up in a huge way in free cash flow, and cash flow generation as the company has to take a hit on the front portion of the earnings announcement in the form of amortization and depreciation expenses, but gets that back on the cash flow side, and thus GeoEYe should never be valued purely on a PE basis, but on a EV/EBITDA basis, and on cash flow, and margin multiples.

    When you look at what they did in 2007 before their revenue declined, you'll see they generated gobs of free cash flow, and their margins were fat. I look for that to resume immediately.

    Chris
    Mar 10 12:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasuries' True Risk [View article]
    Hey Paco,

    I loved your article above and the analysis, and would love to reprint it on my website PeakStocks.com

    Since there is no way for me to contact you via Seeking Alpha other than this posting, can you please visit my website: PeakStocks.com, and simply use the contact form at the bottom of each page, to email me, and we can discuss republishing this article on the site with full attribution of course.

    Chris Fernandez
    Jan 18 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF Investing Guide: One-Page Summary of the Entire Guide [View article]
    Great article David.

    In fact I liked the information and tightness so much that I am citing some of your work in an upcoming post on my website.

    Thanks again, and be on the lookout for it with full attribution.

    Regards,
    Chris
    Sep 4 10:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Treasuries with Inverse ETFs [View article]
    Radicall,

    Awesome points!

    I have not officially started my position yet in TBT or TMV, and don't intend to yet either till I see some stabilization in the bonds, or other compelling reasons.

    Today's drop in price puts the TBT technically right around resistance/support, so it could be a nice entry position either way, but I like your play of shorting TBT, or going long TBT, regardless and making money both ways.

    Although I think the longer term trend is for yields to move sharply higher, I didn't mean to suggest I would be utterly opposed to shorting and going against my own trade for a short term profit boost.

    Chris
    May 30 01:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting Treasuries with Inverse ETFs [View article]
    Hey guys,

    I am not a timing or chartist expert, so my article was not designed to time the move or pretend that there was no risk.

    However, for the reasons that I outlined, I believe that although the vehicle for playing this might be volatile, and yes, the compounding and volatility issues might erode your return, I still think that we are headed for something major here in the next few months, and I want to be ahead of that.

    True that the spike in interest rates a few days back was too much too fast, thus why I am waiting for a pull back, but the mega trend is in place, and I think we'll reap the benefits soon enough.

    Chris
    May 29 02:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye: Sell Alert on Satellite Troubles [View article]
    Hey Userxxx,

    I completely disagree with your assessment that the risk/reward was worse before the satellite was launched.

    You see, back then, the stock was LOWER than where it trades at today, and let's say for the sake of argument, that it was trading for about the same price.

    Well, even at the same price, with what we know today, the risk/reward has changed and is no longer in our favor based on the knowledge that we possess right now.

    I won't back down from my sell of GEOY, and from the looks of the market, DGI is getting a higher valuation right now, with both properties undervalued if you ask me, while at the same time factoring in the higher risk premium on GeoEye.

    China: I understand where you are coming from, but within the boom and bust times of the satellite construction cycle, there is a sweet spot in there (the government subsidies notwithstanding), where the company would generate huge amounts of free cash flow sufficient for continuing operations and satellite build out.

    With the government subsidies, we can see that things look much brighter, especially within the context of future deals as the US looks to continue to outsource their satellite imagery needs to commercial players.

    Chris
    May 28 01:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Cover Alert on Short Position [View article]
    Hey Tangle,

    My appreciation for streaming costs are NOT related to the actual bandwidth being purchased and used by NFLX, but rather by the renegotiations that they are going to have to go through with the studios, thus raising their cost to deliver streamed content.

    If you already look Netflix does not offer all of their available movies for streaming to everyone.

    I'll give you an example: I subscribe to the cheapest plan, 2 DVD's per month, 1 out at a time.

    I am able to stream a bunch of TV shows and movies to my computer (not TV since I need at least the $9.99 plan I believe for that), but some of the movies that it says I am able to stream, I actually can't because my plan "does not allow for that movie to be streamed" as Netflix puts it.

    Think about it this way: If NFLX is already curtailing "unlimited" streaming because of higher costs for certain movies forced upon them by the studios, what's going to happen when those are raised further in the future for better movies, or even for older titles?

    Yep, costs will rise, margins will fall, and NFLX will look much less appealing not only to us as investors, but more so to the actual customers who are going to get tired of being nickle and dimed to death for higher programing costs, and less content.

    Chris
    May 23 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye: Sell Alert on Satellite Troubles [View article]
    I agree with Jim,

    Until I see something official, not some CEO interview on the internet somewhere, I maintain that my sell was warranted for all the reasons that I mentioned, today's stock price rise notwithstanding.

    I can always reenter the position later, so selling the entire position now and hanging back isn't the worst thing in the world, considering I was still able to get out with a gain in the face of such risk and uncertainty.

    I'll put it this way:

    GeoEye's risk/reward proposition no longer favors the investor.

    That's when I tend to exit a position as I have.

    Chris
    May 23 04:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoEye: Back on Track? [View article]
    Hey Jim,

    Very valid points, but in the grand scheme of things, the government contracts will be the same regardless, and GeoEye and DGI's revenues will virtually match eachother, so in the end, the points are moot as far as the pure numbers go.

    Also, you are failing to take into account that satellite launches are very fragile things, and not only is DGI's satellite likely to be pushed back as they always tend to be, but something can go catastrophically wrong with the launch, check out, calibration, and orbit, all real risks right now as the satellite is not a sure thing, as GEOY's already is.

    Now as for the dynamics of imagery collection, as well as how much land mass can be scanned, that is true that DGI has superior capabilities, but here again you failed to address GeoEye's imagery processing capabilities which blow DGI out of the water.

    They are image agnostic, and are able to parse and format imagery from any vendor/source not just their own, and are expanding this unit by 120 staff members.

    Lastly, I addressed the MJ Harden division that also expanded on purchased a new aircraft and camera that you failed to address as well.

    Admittedly, this division is a small portion of sales, but if you add up the increased imagery parsing capabilities as well as increased MJ Harden order flow, and you get a nicely diversified business.

    I just actually sold my GeoEye position today as a result of uncertainty with the imagery problems with GeoEye-1, as well as falling stock price, and will look to get in at a later time.

    Chris
    May 22 01:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Cover Alert on Short Position [View article]
    Didn't lose anything on the trade, that's the whole point.

    With the market the way it is, it's just not the right time to short, unless you are super willing to give the stock 10% or so run on the downside and be able to hang on with the vacilations.

    I was not, and took my money off the table even.

    Longer term, as I already expressed, I think we'll see more downside.

    Chris
    May 20 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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