Chris Fernandez

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

Hey Stevie,

Thanks for the information!

Let me ask you 2 more questions while we are still in session:

1 - You seem like a good analyst, why aren't your articles published on SA? You should submit sometime...

2 - Which do you think will happen based on market demand, economics, valuation, etc.: SPWRB doubling in price in the next 6 months, or FSLR doubling in price ever again?

Ring, ring...oops, looks like schools out for today...

Peace.

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

Steve,

FSLR had a great quarter, indeed, but I guess I'm not the only "expert" that doesn't know what he's talking about, and sees FSLR as a company on the precipice ready to fall:

"I am struggling to find a comparable company that was a leader in its industry and managed to dodge the bullet that is killing every other company in the space -- maybe GE during the Jack Welch years," said Kaufman Bros analyst Theodore O'Neill, who has a "sell" rating on First Solar shares.

"Gross profit margins were up sequentially in a large way, which also just makes this hard to fathom in the environment that we are in," O'Neill said.

Have fun holding the next "Microsoft".

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

Hey guys,

A quick note to ease everyone's comments: My post/article was NOT meant to be exhaustive, fully fleshed out, or concerned with getting every single detail right and the metrics spot on.

It was a piece meant to touch on a broad subject: namely, solar stocks have been beaten down, and those looking for potential contrarian plays in the market, might have something to work with here, with the caveat that a tight stop is in order just in case the industry collapses to a new "resting place" and my contrarian viewpoint is either too soon, or incorrect.

I appreciate the added information that you guys have provided to help people reading this flesh out the numbers, and the information, lots of well informed readers on this post that added some incredible value!

Specifically:
- dzr_greg (thanks for the additional companies!)
- skv009 (ASP WILL be coming down!),
- smlcap (Motley Fool usually has decent things to say, I won't bag on them for the information they teach newbie investors),
- Fred W (MMA was on my watchlist once upon a time! I thought the company was in a sweet spot, unfortunately, they were in the wrong place at the wrong time...but you are 100% right, their portfolio is very lucrative, and someone will step in to take their place!)
- wisdom.vs.information (agree 100% about FSLR being at or near as good as it's gonna get, and that's why I don't like it, agree also with SPWR having to lower prices dramatically, and cut costs to reach grid parity, and I didn't know about China's infrastructure being so weak, definitely something to look into, thanks for that!)
- frflyer (you are right about ENER...I meant that they didn't have a competent bus. model, or management team to ever get this thing right, and it was time to bail on them long ago, but you make some damn fine points about their overall contributions.)

Again, thanks all, and remember, I am just one man, can't possibly cover every single nagging detail that might bug you guys, so that's what these comments are for, keep em coming, cause it adds value to the information we all have.

Take care,
Chris

Solar Stocks Look Ripe

I always know that I wrote a good article when people get pissed off and decide to pipe in some noise. Thanks guys!

I'll address the comments that deserve attention, and leave the rest for those that want to continue to hate because I struck a nerve and they are long the positions that I said suck, and short the ones I said buy. Good luck guys.

Freya: I am not a day trader either, but there are certain instances when taking a small loss is a smart play on a contrarian opinion. This is one such case.

EGF: Tangible book value for WFR is $9.31 per share. Stock is trading well above that.

TraderMark: Did you read the entire post? I never said China is saving the industry, in fact I listed 6 other reasons, China being one of them, for a possible few select companies, not the entire industry...

Steve: I guess I better get back to school, so much to learn for little old me...

Thanks for reading, the good, bad and ugly.

Chris