Chris Fernandez

Shorting Treasuries with Inverse ETFs

Radicall,

Awesome points!

I have not officially started my position yet in TBT or TMV, and don't intend to yet either till I see some stabilization in the bonds, or other compelling reasons.

Today's drop in price puts the TBT technically right around resistance/support, so it could be a nice entry position either way, but I like your play of shorting TBT, or going long TBT, regardless and making money both ways.

Although I think the longer term trend is for yields to move sharply higher, I didn't mean to suggest I would be utterly opposed to shorting and going against my own trade for a short term profit boost.

Chris

Shorting Treasuries with Inverse ETFs

Hey guys,

I am not a timing or chartist expert, so my article was not designed to time the move or pretend that there was no risk.

However, for the reasons that I outlined, I believe that although the vehicle for playing this might be volatile, and yes, the compounding and volatility issues might erode your return, I still think that we are headed for something major here in the next few months, and I want to be ahead of that.

True that the spike in interest rates a few days back was too much too fast, thus why I am waiting for a pull back, but the mega trend is in place, and I think we'll reap the benefits soon enough.

Chris

Two Stocks to Consider Shorting

Hey guys,

I agree wholeheartedly about all your comments concerning the TBT...there is risk with every single play out there right now or else we would all be Bernie Madoff, and promising amazing gains over and over again with no downside.

All the picks that I make are purely speculative in nature and are high risk.

That's what I specialize in, and it isn't for everyone.

That being said, I believe that once the institutional money starts flowing out of STRA, it will be a race to the exits...again, I don't think that now is the time to short STRA, we must wait for our entry point with caution, and make sure things are playing out to our advantage.

Dont worry, as sector rotation starts to happen, STRA will fall with the rest of the secondary education names as Wall Street buys up the next great bull rush in another sector.

Wait for it...wait for it...and then pounce!

I'll be watching closely.

Chris

Treasuries' True Risk

Hey Paco,

I loved your article above and the analysis, and would love to reprint it on my website PeakStocks.com

Since there is no way for me to contact you via Seeking Alpha other than this posting, can you please visit my website: PeakStocks.com, and simply use the contact form at the bottom of each page, to email me, and we can discuss republishing this article on the site with full attribution of course.

Chris Fernandez

ETF Ideas

Hey22,

Good points all, thanks for sharing them.

I suppose what I meant was that shorting Treasuries is not simple for most people, or something they are comfortable with or readily would do.

An ETF presents a much simpler way of transacting the trade.

As for the "bubble" scenario, you make a good point, and it is certainly something to watch...but at current rates, I still argue that Treasuries are not the place to be going forward for long term investors.

Chris