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Chris Hofmann  

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  • Yahoo: Contingent On Alibaba [View instapost]
    When valuing Yahoo ex-BABA, you forgot to remove Yahoo! Japan and cash. Assuming Yahoo! Japan is taxed fully, these are worth ~$11.50.

    Adding this to your range gives you $37.50 to $53.50, or 2.5% down, 36% up. That is a drastically different picture, and much more bullish than what you have outlined.
    Jul 6, 2015. 12:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vringo +5.9% following shareholder update [View news story]
    Wow that is deceptive.

    That is cash and assets. Not just cash. Through June, Vringo showed $31.65M in cash:
    Sep 2, 2014. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Will Take Years For Uni-Pixel To Reach Production, If Ever, Meanwhile Executives Will Still Get Rich [View article]
    More lies from RxR.

    That 7" tablet for $30 that he links to is originally priced at $149.99. It is currently selling for $30 due to a rebate and it is 'refurbished' (many of the reviews mention scratches and dents).

    In addition, despite being priced at $149.99, many reviews also mention that the biggest problem is that the touch screen is poor - laggy, unresponsive, poor sensitivity, etc. One user even wrote: "The unit could be nice if the touch screen worked regularly. Some touches do not register and you have to touch it 3-4 times before it registers. I've allowed several people to test this in case I have dry fingers."

    But its alright, lets just ignore facts like usual.
    Jul 16, 2014. 01:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Will Take Years For Uni-Pixel To Reach Production, If Ever, Meanwhile Executives Will Still Get Rich [View article]
    Another article from Adam Gefvert. The odd thing is that it literally doesn't say anything new compared to your other article from less than 1 month ago. Again, it is simply full of both unsubstantiated statements and irrelevant facts stated to sound bearish.

    My favorite one is this insightful line straight from the summary: "Whether Uni-Pixel succeeds or fails, executives will still get rich off investors' money."

    That is true of EVERY company and, furthermore, it offers zero insight into whether or not UNXL will succeed or fail.

    The other two points of your summary are, as far as I can tell from the article, based on nothing other than your own opinion. It amazes me that SA allows you to publish these articles. Why do you think the new mgmt is promotional? Do you have any proof? Have they missed any deadlines? (the answer to both is 'no'). Why do you think they are using 'pilot production' loosely? The term does have a specific definition, although I will agree that it is often used to mean many things. But how do you know how UNXL is using it? Did you help them write the PRs? Are you familiar with their specific manufacturing process? (again... 'no')

    The only part of this article that remotely offers some insight into the potential failure or success of the company is the section titled: "Uni-Pixel is far behind the competition". However, even in this section you just compare them to XSense and O-Film while readily admitting that Uni-Pixel uses a different technology / process.

    Finally, just to nitpick, you state that Uni-Pixel started touch in 2012. I don't feel like looking it up, but I know that everybody's favorite UNXL bear RichardXRoe (who I am sure will post in these comments) loves to link to a 2011 filing from UNXL stating that they have had 'success' with touch.

    **Edit - While I was writing this, RxR did exactly as I stated he would. Shorts are like clockwork**

    The only real facts are as follows:
    1. UNXL is attempting to develop / produce metal mesh touch sensors using a unique process that will be significantly cheaper than current technology.
    2. UNXL has had success in lab products, but has had issues transferring the technology to Roll-to-Roll machines for mass production
    3. UNXL has piqued the interests of several very large corporations, including the 'PC Manufacturer' (rumored to be Dell), 'Ecosystem Partner' (rumored to be Intel), and Kodak.
    4. UNXL currently has some sort of tablet manufacturer lined up if production is achieved
    5. UNXL recently claimed that they have achieved roll-to-roll manufacturing at their Lufkin, TX plant, and needed to transfer the technology over to the Kodak plant.
    6. UNXL has admitted that they are still doing yield-testing on the roll-to-roll machines, specifically for long runs. Do not confuse this for stating that the process does not work. It does work, UNXL just wants to improve yields.
    7. Investors do NOT know if UNXL is attempting to improve yields from 10% to 50% or from 70% to 90%. Anybody who claims otherwise is speculating. However, based on the fact that UNXL is claiming the process works and that the yield testing is specifically for long-runs, I personally do not believe it is a stretch to assume that short-run yields are fairly high (and hence 'successful') while long-term yields are on the lower end. If I had to guess what 'high' and 'low' meant... maybe 'high' is 65-90% and 'low' is 30-50%. Again, these are just random guesses.
    8. Finally, and perhaps most importantly to some - if UNXL is successful, the stock is worth multiples of where it is currently trading. If UNXL is not successful, it will slowly drift to zero.
    Jul 16, 2014. 09:39 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Uni-Pixel Still Struggling To Advance From A Lab Experiment To A Sellable Product [View article]
    Oh Adam... You give 'CFA' a bad name, assuming you actually have one. I don't want to have 50 replies to this one article, so I will just leave one big one.

    1. For those who don't know, Adam Gefvert wrote a bearish article on UNXL over a year ago, with the main focus being an interview with touch screen "expert" Ivan Jimenez. Ivan Jimenez promptly came out and said that he is not an expert, merely a fellow short, and works in a completely unrelated field. This does not speak to the company's merits, but to Gefvert's research.
    2. You state that UNXL gave no visibility into production - did you even listen to the call? The CEO directly said that they are in the process of transferring their technology to Rochester (Kodak), will give a further update on the Q2 call (5 weeks), and at this time expect to be shipping before year end. It is impossible to be more direct than this without stating as fact that which is not. I understand that many investors (long or short) are having comprehension issues with the transfer from a 'marketing' styled CEO to a conservative, under-promise styled CEO, but this is the new management style. The CEO hasn't been around long (only a few months), but so far he has kept every deadline regarding manufacturing updates and progress, and I expect that to continue.
    3a. You state: "By pilot production status, the company means that the yield is not only low, but also unpredictable." This is a false statement. By definition, pilot production means that commercial product will not be made off of the line because it is for testing / experimental purposes ONLY. As soon as the EXACT same technology is transferred to Rochester, it suddenly becomes non-Pilot production. It has nothing to do with yields. Your parallel is useless. I could easily say "to draw a parallel, it took company xyz only 2 days to fix any yield (or other) issues. UNXL will do it super quick!". The two companies have nothing in common.
    3b. You state that the CEO gave vague answers on gross margin. What is your point? Every company in the entire world gives vague answers with regards to margins / yields. If you want clear answers, you read their income statements. This is research 101 and is taught quite well in the CFA study materials.
    3c. Yes, they are focusing on smaller tablets at first. You state that this is an issue because there is less of a price benefit at smaller sizes. You use Atmel as an example. This is the crux of your argument, and it is flawed. You wrongly assume that all touch screens are created equal, and all metal mesh is the same price. UNXL is CHEAPER than ITO and Atmel at ANY size, especially at larger sizes. Why do you think they already have a buyer for that tablet size lined up? Because the buyer is just dying to try a new technology for the exact same price / quality? Furthermore, if you did more research you would know that ITO is currently selling essentially at a loss, which is unsustainable in the long-term.
    3d. You state that as time goes on, ASPs will continue to decrease. Again, this is actually somewhat flawed given that ITO is currently selling at a loss. This is why the market has cycles (*GASP* shocking!). Most likely, prices will rally again for a while before falling further. They don't move in a straight line.
    4. Again, you assume that xSense is the exact same product as UNXL, but it isn't. I personally have always stated that I think UNXL will do much better than xSense. You know who felt the opposite (and was long ATML and/or Carclo while short UNXL?) your 'expert' Ivan Jimenez (see point 1).
    5a. Yes, TPK is definitely hurting. Their overall profit margins have decreased from 8% at the end of 2012 to 0.48% today. And they have other business units besides touch sensors that are bringing that average up (i.e. touch sensors have negative margins for them).
    5b. UNXL will have no issue competing with these prices. at $1.50 per diagonal inch, a 7" tablet is $10.50 for the module. Sensor is typically ~50%, or $5. UNXL should have no issue selling it at $3 for that size with significant margins. Remember... not all metal mesh is the same, manufacturing differences can result in significantly reduced COGS / CapEx
    5c. "However, this problem can be solved by carefully aligning the pattern with the display. This step is best done by panel makers." Funny you should mention this.... O-Film actually solves it by using a randomized pattern, i.e. there is nothing 'careful' about it and it isn't 'aligned' to anything. There are many ways of solving Moire. UNXL has shown in their samples that they are Moire-free.
    5d. Fun facts... It takes roughly the same amount of time to have a phone-call, email, or video-chat with somebody 5 miles away as somebody around the world. More fun facts... you can ship something from NY to Korea in about the same amount of time as you can from China to Korea... i.e. in under 2 days. While there are definitely benefits of being 'nearby', they are overblown. The true benefits lie within vertical integration, which O-Film does not have.
    5e. It has been discussed ad nauseum that ~5-6 microns is the maximum size necessary, and going smaller doesn't help that much. UNXL's screen is fully transparent, and therefore not an issue.
    5f. This sounds more like a lesson for ITO than UNXL.

    Fun Additional Points!
    1. You mention the Intel Walker Mobile report... UNXL used to be mentioned, no longer is, but they are still sourced in a photo on slide 77. Previously, the report stated that UNXL was the only company using a truly additive process, which could be significantly cheaper than other metal mesh if successful... Again... not all touch is created equal.
    2. UNXL is no longer picking 'samples', they have a fully working production line. Hence their CC recently.
    3. UNXL has already discussed that once they transfer the technology all to Rochester, they will have an analyst day, which they expect to be in early Fall. I expect that at this point they will also be shipping product, since the whole point of the analyst day is to show off WORKING manufacturing. This falls in line with the other hints they have been dropping about when they will begin shipping, which the shorts continue to ignore.
    Jun 27, 2014. 11:47 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ampio up in early trading on average volume [View news story]
    It probably helps that Citi's buy rating had a $21 PT
    May 8, 2014. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Growlife - It's All Smoke And Mirrors: Research Uncovers Why Shares Are Overhyped And Overvalued [View article]
    In the end, what it comes down to is this:

    PHOT has more or less become a MJ-focused microcap PE structured vehicle, taking equity stakes in unproven companies that they believe will become very successful in the MJ space over the coming years.

    None of their deals will look good "today", because it is all focused on "tomorrow". None of these businesses could possibly be successful today, because it is a new industry that is just now being legalized.

    Personally, I've seen Small Cap Machine spread his drivel before with other companies, but we don't need to get into that. I fully believe that he is "sponsored" by somebody to write biased articles using one-sided research.
    Feb 6, 2014. 04:41 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarantus' ADHD drug performs well in Phase IIa study [View news story]
    The drug is an older drug that they recently came into ownership of (in January 2014). They are clearly using the PRs to let people know why they like this drug and how they will be utilizing it going forward. Some of the reports are of course old since they have not yet run any new studies since they just received the drug.
    Feb 4, 2014. 04:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarantus' ADHD drug performs well in Phase IIa study [View news story]
    The better way to look at this would be to dig up the Adderall Phase 2a studies and see how it compared to the placebo. I have not done this.
    Feb 4, 2014. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarantus' ADHD drug performs well in Phase IIa study [View news story]
    It is statistically significant, which is all that matters. Like you said, it is a qualitative assessment, which means that lots of placebo patients will "think" they are getting better because they want to be getting better. It makes sense that both numbers might be artificially inflated by some degree. What is important is that:

    1. There is improvement.
    2. It is statistically significant.
    Feb 4, 2014. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paper Profits Up In Smoke - Understanding The High [View article]
    just one point.... you say that people will still use "illegal" dealers because of a 25% tax... but there are two very obvious arguments against this.

    1. Anybody who is actually dealing illegally is taking a huge risk, and will therefore charge much more than 25% as an extra "tax" to compensate him/her for that risk.

    2. If MJ is completely legal everywhere, then there is no such thing as "dealers". There could be tax evaders, but those exist in every market, and it has nothing to do with the product.
    Feb 1, 2014. 05:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Letter To GrowLife [View article]

    I agree with you 100% on all points. I personally believe that there will be multiple GIFT announcements in February, starting immediately after the A/S increase on Feb 8th. I think that the financing for GIFT is going to come directly from A/S, and therefore PHOT can not officially make any announcements / "sign on the dotted line" until the A/S is increased.
    Jan 23, 2014. 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Open Letter To GrowLife [View article]
    Those who don't understand the difference between shares outstanding and shares authorized shouldn't be posting here.

    Those who make comparisons such as "3 billion shares outstanding, that is 10x that of Google!!!!" shouldn't be posting here, as this sort of comparison is 100% useless given that shares outstanding is easily changed through splits.
    Jan 19, 2014. 01:03 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inquiry To Kodak Reveals Bullish Outlook On Uni-Pixel [View article]

    When shorts (LfD) say things like that about the building address, it shows that they are either:

    1. Completely ignorant
    2. Completely idiotic
    3. Clearly trying to just manipulate others
    4. Some combination of the above.

    Maybe I'll try to track them down, I'm in Bryant Park all the time.
    Jan 18, 2014. 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paper Profits Up In Smoke - Understanding The High [View article]

    You are exactly correct. The difference is that early biotechs have a high chance of NOT being approved whereas MJ is already on the path to approval and has a high chance of 'success'.
    Jan 14, 2014. 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment