Chris Katje's  Instablog

Warner Brothers reported yesterday that Where the Wild Things Are made $3.1 million on IMAX screens from Friday through Sunday. The movie opened on 145 screens in the United States. This opening represents the biggest fall opening for an IMAX movie ever. The film contributed nine percent of the total box office revenue.

This is nice to see for another movie opening in wide release on IMAX screens. The company continues to sign movies and add to its slate.

Rounding out 2009 are three movies that should all contribute heavily to IMAX revenue. The first will be This Is It (The Michael Jackson Concert Footage Movie), A Christmas Carol, and Avatar.

This is it will be in theaters for a limited time only so it should have strong results each week it is in IMAX theaters. The movie is currently outselling New Moon for preordered tickets at theaters across the nation.

*Disclaimer-I own shares of IMAX in my Sogotrade account*

November 10th marks the release of Activision's Call of Duty : Modern Warfare 2.

Activision, with its recent merger with Blizzard, holds the video game rights to Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo. The company also produces video games based on movies under license.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is the latest chapter in the first person game franchise. There have been numerous games released since the initial Call of Duty game was put out in 2004. The games are available on numerous platforms.

The last Call of Duty game (Call of Duty World at War) was released close to one year ago. The game sold over eleven million copies. The newest game will likely surpass that. My estimate for Modern Warfare 2 would be 15 million copies.

The game is already on the Amazon bestsellers list for several platforms. The XBOX 360 version of the game is currently number 5 and has been on the bestseller list for 145 days. The Playstation 3 version of the game comes in at number fourteen. The Prestige edition (includes real night vision goggles, art book, and a token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is currently number twenty one. This version of the game sells for $149.95 currently on Amazon. The Prestige Playstation 3 version of the game is at number thirty seven. The PC version of the game is number fifty five. The Hardened edition (includes art book and token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is number eighty. That version of the game sells for $79.99. Also on the bestseller list is Call of Duty: Modern Warfare for XBOX 360.
At a local Gamestop store, they have received over 250 preorders for the game. Gamers still have several weeks to preorder the game as well and I see that number jumping. In comparison Halo 3 had only seventy preorders at this particular Gamestop. Most Gamestops will be opening doors at midnight on November 9th to let gamers get to playing as soon as possible.

The game has sold over 2.2 million preorders. Activision has said this has been their highest preorder sales ever.

Activision recently released Guitar Hero 5 and Marvel Ulitmate Alliance 2.

The upcoming slate looks strong for Activision as well.

-DJ Hero and Band Hero both come out in time for the holidays and further expand the dominating music game genre that Activision is so strong in.
-Big League Sports is a new sports game exclusively for the Nintendo Wii.
-A new racing game called Blur.
-Interactive Tony Hawk game with motion controlled skateboard for the Nintendo Wii.

The biggest release next year will be Starcraft 2. The games is for PC and is the sequel to the popular Starcraft game. The game was amazingly successful in Asia where it is a part of the culture, providing reality television competitions. The game is already in the top 1000 on Amazon's video game list.

Activision Blizzard continues to be the leader in video games. The franchise releases widely popular games each year, especially in the current Christmas season. The brands included are Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Starcraft, Diablo, Tony Hawk, Wolfenstein. Through licenses the company releases games of Spider Man, Transformers, Cabelas Hunting, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, X Men, Shrek, Madagascar, James Bond, and several others.

I currently hold shares of Activision in my Sogotrade account. The stock is at $12.50 today. When I wrote about the stock last year before Christmas the stock traded below $10. Once Mordern Warfare 2 is released the stock should run up nicely to $15. I think Activison (ATVI) could trade at $20 by 05/10.

*Disclosure-Long ATVI*

Yesterday Imax reported that it has added two movies to its 2009 slate.

The first movie is: Where the Wild Things Are

Where the Wild Things Are is based on a children's book. Max, the main character of the book is sent to bed without dinner and creates a fictional world of ferocious monsters. The monsters crown Max as their king in the forest where they live. The movie is directed by Spike Jonze, who previously directed Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and several music videos. The movie stars Catherine Keener, Mark Ruffalo, James Gandolfini, Forest Whitaker, and Paul Dano. The movie is a live action adaption of the book. The movie will be released in Imax and conventional theaters on Ocotober 16th, 2009.

The second movie is: Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs is also based on a book but will be adapted in 3D animation. The movie is about an inventor who tries to make an invention that will change the world. The movie stars Bill Hader, Anna Faris, Andy Samberg, Bruce Campbell, Neil Patrick Harris, and Mr. T. The movie will be released in Imax and conventional theaters on September 18th, 2009.

How do these two movies impact Imax earnings?

Revenue-This year movies shown on Imax have contributed around eight percent of the total box office revneue of movies released. Transformers is around eight and a half percent currently and Night at the Museum was eight percent.
Where the Wild Things are should gross around $125 million in its theatrical run. I would guess five to eight percent of that would be on Imax Screens. That would mean $6.25 to $10 million. Transformers in perspective, just crossed the $40 million mark on Imax screens but it was a larger budget movie.
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs should gross around $80 million in its theatrical run. I would guess a higher percent since the movie is being shown in 3D which typically do better on IMAX screens (Monsters vs. Aliens). Seven to ten percent would be my guess which would represent a gross of $5.6 to $8 million on Imax screens.

Lineup-Imax has done well to secure big studio releases in 3D and conventional form which can generate more revenue than the documentaries shown on Imax screens. The 2009 Imax season has been very strong so far with Star Trek, Monsters vs. Aliens, Transformers 2, and Night at the Museum 2 posting strong box office results so far.
The rest of 2009 certainly looks strong with Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince coming soon to Imax. Other 2009 Imax movies include: A Christmas Carol and Avatar plus the aformentioned Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Where the Wild Things are. There are still two gaps in 2009 release schedule that can be filled with movies to generate more revenue.


I recommended this stock previously and made it one of my top ten stocks for 2009. The stock has doubled since that period. I still remain optimistic about the stock and think it is headed towards $10-$12. This would be and additional seventeen plus percent gain on the stock price.
When results are released from the next quarter the stock could make a nice run that day. Buy some on any pullbacks. Anything below $8 would be a strong buy.
 

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I'm looking at taking my profits in BWLD tomorrow.

The stock has had a nice run and I am up over 60%. I know the stock is doing great during this time and has room to run but I dont' know if it will short term.

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