Chris Lau

19 Chinese Stocks That Are Relatively Cheap

I like your comparative work amongst the companies you recommended.

Activision-Blizzard Q2: Company Beats Its Own Forecast

Are you concerned about the delays in some of its games? Also, the company is relying in big hit releases in the christmas time frame period. What about in between? There's quite a gap between the revenue earned from existing titles and the revenue pickup dependent on new "hit" titles.

GameStop: Digital Downloading Threat Is Overblown

There are merits in being contrarian when assessing digital downloading versus GME used game sales. The only thing that really matters is the sales volume at GME stores. Digital downloading buzz, when it pushes down stock price, makes GME even more attractive a purchase. But again, this is best done when evidence continues to support strong sales for the used game market.

FedEx CEO Calls Bottom and Slashes Guidance

I agree with your assessment. When I reviewed FDX, I concluded that FDX was not a stock to hold. Worse for FDX and the economy is that if FDX is struggling, the economy most likely is too.

I do not believe that historical valuation may be applied to FDX for quite some time. Unless the forecast is for growth to resume like "the good old days" the chances for this happening are low. Also, Kinko was not good on FDX balance sheet and is a distraction to the company.

Therefore, the market rally is likely going to be faced with a gradual sell-off.

First Solar: What This Analyst Missed

This is a great write-up. Good analysis and skepticism in the key areas (i.e. subsidies).

Why Isn't Microsoft's Strategy Working Anymore?

Do you think there is any significance or value to add to MSFT stock with bing.com generating more traffic than yahoo search when it launched?

I like bing. After a few tries, i am ready to give bing a few tries. I'm actually willing to change my behaviour to use bing over google if bing continues to improve (it's "news" link is very beta though..it links to msn.com).

Biovail: Dividend Cut, Recent Acquisition Positive for Shareholders

The truck scandal was a terrible time for BVF. I knew it was a fake story the moment it came out. After that, it was clear that BVF had many issues.

The convertible offering is significant, but this was released after I wrote my article. Note the conversion offering price, and the terms (interest payments). It is FAR lower than the terms for Teck Corp. This is not a good comparison to make (resource company versus pharma), but I bring this point up because BVF may raise capital without paying excessively.

Looking forward, we investors must ensure that BVF is able to produce strong revenue and improving margins. If this does not happen, then I would not accumulate this stock. If this does happen, it would be a good idea to buy more shares.


On Jun 04 08:01 PM Clearlead wrote:

> (a) management has cleaned/cleaning up the Melnyk problems/scandals
> and they have made peace, which author addressed the merits of. why
> mention things that occurred under Melynk that doesn't seem fair
> to the current management?
> (b) the divy cut is positive b/c they ended the issue of it being
> unsustainable, and one might say now it can grow the divy in a manner
> that appropriately reflects growth and hopefully maintains a reasonable
> balance sheet..i do believe the author hit on this point enough.
>
> (c) acquisition = growth, etc., which author also addressed.
>
> frankly this company was a train wreck and it's making a turn around,
> which the author has emphasized.
>
> but what is concerning to me is the convertible offering, and whether
> they can now quickly execute some more good news and acquisitions
> to merit this move.
>
> yes, I am long bvf.

GlaxoSmithKline: Witty's Management Is Reason for Optimism

Hi, nice to see your article on seekingalpha as well! Keep up the good research.

GameStop: Margin of Safety Is Attractive at Current Prices

matttz, could you elaborate on your claim GME does not take used game? This is completely incorrect: it's the cornerstone of its business and a reason why it is so attractive during "recessionary" times.

Used-game sales were up 32%, with sales at $549 million. This is +19%, +31% on a quarter to quarter comparison.

Think Gamestop Is Recession-Proof? Think Again

Do you believe GME will be able to deliver on their EPS forecast? It's trading at a mere 8x and mgt. appears to suggest hardware prices will fall. I don't see that happening though.

Will the Palm Pre Make It Out of the Starting Gate?

There are already rumors the Eos is coming out @ $99. Pre isn't even out yet and they're already talking about a cheaper "better" model.

What Quantitative Easing?

The Fed will have to keep dumping money into the system until there is inflation. It's either that or deflation. I see the latter is a more likely outcome.

What to Short When the Rally Dies

I don't understand why you think REITs are "like going hunting and shooting a deer caught on a trap - not very satisfying or meaningful. "

They have rallied quite significantly on the basis that commercial debt obligations are all but forgotten. This is not the case. When the market realizes this then SRS would be a good hedge against any ensuing sell-off. Of course, SRS should only represent a small portion for a portfolio.

General Growth Properties Files for Bankruptcy

Due to the way SRS positions close by days-end, it's not a true hedge to the commercial REIT. So that would explain why SRS is lower than its stock price in 2007.

See here that commercial REIT holdings are still below 2007 levels.
stockcharts.com/charts...?$DJR

This means that when the "recovery in this sector is supported by self-perpetuating stock rally, SRS will move up very, very fast...maybe around the $60. I'd look more seriously into SRS at that level. In the meantime, sit tight and let the rally ride itself out on low volume and fueled by government bailout funds.

This Market Is Ridiculous

WFC and GS reported "great" earnings. The problem is, the news conveniently omits the devil in the details:

chrispycrunch.blogspot...

I would not be a full buyer of bank stocks at this time. I'd like to see how ARM's impact the earnings and the financial health of the major banks.