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Chris Lau  

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  • Speculating With AMD [View article]
    Per my last article, AMD is range-bound trading stock. Still, the rumor mill was favorable for AMD. This is similar to GME - years ago undervalued, its game business thought to be under attack by digital games.

    AMD obviously integrating its GPU with Zen MICRO architecture. Lots of value there, and the firm must do it on limited funds.

    Near term upside. GPU refresh should stabilize sales through the next two quarters. Driver and software updates are much needed and will win back those who moved to NVDA.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Denies Spin-Off Story But An Independent Radeon GPU Firm Is Still An Attractive Concept [View article]
    TAC has tremendous value but operates in Alberta and relies on coal. It spun out its renewable, which you would think means TAC would benefit.

    Long SAN. Deeply undervalued. European tension hurting stock, along with management change. The former created a discount, the latter creates misunderstanding.

    TWTR - Short it. Maybe someone would be foolish to buy it, but unlikely. No moat, no differentiation, low stickiness. I barely have 1000 followers on it but the interaction rate (other than 1000's of views) is very low.
    Jun 22, 2015. 08:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 More Reasons Why We Think Kinder Morgan's Shares Will Collapse [View article]
    Called a spade a spade and recommended KMI a *buy* to paying subscribers no less than three times. Another pick mentioned more than that ended up ~40%.

    The attack on KMI is not likely to hold. It's a stock income investors should buy.
    Jun 21, 2015. 09:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Denies Spin-Off Story But An Independent Radeon GPU Firm Is Still An Attractive Concept [View article]
    AMD splitting is *unlikely.* Chip Firms are getting bigger so they may compete more effectively through scale. Splitting out the GPU division would indicate Samsung will buy out one of the units. It negates the benefits of the superior architecture in HBM, Zen.

    AMD is highly integrated, too. All the major console players are running amd's chips since they are a one stop shop. AMD bottomed at these levels, but it will be a while before the stock moves up again.
    Jun 21, 2015. 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • That Was Quick! Our First Premium Author Hits $200,000 In Annual Revenue [View article]
    4.25% is a respectable return, Chris. My portfolio's been bouncing within a range since launch, but finally rose ~ 2.5% in the month (long only, ~70% equity/30%. cash).

    If I outperform your ideas, let me hire your marketing team for a week :)
    Jun 20, 2015. 11:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Biotech Finally In A Bubble? [View article]
    Anyone that wants that one big stock idea should very well focus on the biotech sector. Just look at CELG or GILD. The odds of hitting a home run if the investor picks its bottom. See, a stock that was bought a bit early but is recovering.

    Avoid biotechs with pre-products too early to market. The R&D costs will just mean more dilution later.
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slides following cautious RBC, Morgan Stanley notes [View news story]
    Kudos to their effort though. Bobby's got interesting stats. 2,500 posts on 12 followers, so it takes him 208 posts to win a follower.

    Kia is 11,048 posts on 123 followers, so he's a bit more effective, winning a follower every 90 posts.

    Conversely, my account streams everywhere and may possibly end up on bloomberg terminals. Those algos pick signals then trade on them. Might explain why various stocks hit my lower and upper boundaries. Nice to make noise (posts here may get a like or 2, but it's from sending over 1000 views each), but that is still not alpha.
    Jun 19, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fitbit soars above IPO price; valuation at $6.2B [View news story]
    GALE is likely headed lower. It had its bump but consider taking full profit.
    FIT is in trouble. It cannot compete with the deluge of smart watches coming to market. AAPL, Moto, etc. FIT sold at a good time.

    TWTR will likely touch $30 in coming days.
    Jun 19, 2015. 08:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry slides following cautious RBC, Morgan Stanley notes [View news story]
    Thanks for the head's up, Mobile "Iron" Stanley
    Jun 18, 2015. 04:00 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time For Greed [View article]
    Same here - ~ 30% cash. Less exposure to markets and trading off higher company risk for higher alpha = bigger reward . Look at this biotech rebound nicely, for example: which is beating market on day to day, but won't beat index until the alpha plays out.

    For great ideas Bret's followers should subscribe to his biotech research subscription.
    Jun 18, 2015. 03:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time For Greed [View article]
    Lots of hot money in the market. That cash must flow towards the best returning assets, fueling bubble.

    Best to play it defensively, by holding absurd levels of cash. We don't know where things will be tomorrow, and no one wants to be fully invested when everyone's potentially rushing for the *same* narrow exit.
    Jun 18, 2015. 01:38 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron Technologies: Tide Will Turn In Second Half Of 2015 [View article]
    When you have no cash flow, hold cash, and want "the one big trade" you are asking for trouble. MU is CLEARLY both highly manipulated an undervalued, but things often go wrong when one least expects it.

    Second, buy stocks, not options. Options may give you 1000% leverage, but those contracts expire if you are wrong. Use time as your friend. Hold the stock and put the money up front instead.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:59 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Lenovo And Selling Hewlett-Packard [View article]
    LNVGY fell much faster than HPQ since May 17. Bears firmly playing on the Windows 10 refresh "sell on the news." Stock is down 17.7% in the last month.

    Though neither HPQ nor LNVGY are a core focus in the premium research list, at least LNVGY might as well be. If any stock in China were to rally, it should be LNVGY. BABA, TSL, BIDU too.

    Look for a possible snap back for LNVGY as Shanghai and the ChiNext fall (speculative money moves to solid company).
    Jun 18, 2015. 08:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Etsy [View article]
    TWTRs been an obvious short, as has YELP. Both are in terminal decline. FB is unstoppable, very sticky. ETSY's business is hard to differentiate.

    Lots of opex and operational risks ahead.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Key Earnings Items To Watch [View article]
    Agree, Bill! Further worth noting the timing of the book last month on where BBRY went wrong, the quiet period, and put options favoring sub $10 all helped the bears.

    I view that as a chance to buy more. Though our focus is in other higher return ideas (one's up 30%+ yay!), once BBRY reports, the sentiment may finally shift in its favor. Look in the report:
    1. Hardware profit margin in the 40's+, NOT by absolute volume (expect it lower y o y anyway)
    2. MDM/BES 12 revenue. Key.
    3. IoT, health initiatives
    4. Progress of BBM monetization
    5. New device roadmap
    6. Confirmation of BB/Android, other strategies in re-entering consumer market.
    7. Comment on India, EMEA markets especially after the exec. left
    8. Outlook on hardware sales: # markets entered with Passport/Classic
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:42 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment