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Chris Lau  

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  • Continue Avoiding Etsy [View article]
    Have you looked at ebay lately? Try the Canadian site. It looks like Etsy.
    Sep 23, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T-Mobile seeing heavy iPhone demand, pushing $5/month lease [View news story]
    Do consumers actually trade in their precious iPhone 6? On Ebay it's $150 (cracked screen) - $625 (good condition) or:

    $7.50/mo for broken iphone

    $34.75/mo for good condition unit. TMUS makes a net $29/mo!

    Conclusion: buy AAPL and TMUS.
    Sep 23, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen: It's Prudent To Scale Into A Long Position [View article]
    @Michael Ranalli:
    I'm saying the stock may fall a few more points in the next day or two. Since you plan to average down you should also consider the alternative: buying puts to limit the downside since you're betting the bearish market reaction is excessive.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen lower again as executive committee meets [View news story]
    Reverse the costs associated with this cheating and VW may very well be bankrupt on paper. The company only booked repair costs, but have no idea, mechanically, how to fix this.

    Put another way, the longer VW doesn't have a solution, the more costly this will be from an engineering standpoint.

    VW made money on the repair/maintenance, not the car. Now, these costs are shifted back to VW, not the owner.

    +Premium get free early look on how to play this sector. BMW, MB also.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volkswagen: It's Prudent To Scale Into A Long Position [View article]
    AS I've taught my DIY followers (via +Premium - click link), wait three days, minimum. Today or tomorrow is a full trading day's end and already there's new revelations:

    1. > 1M cars affected
    2. Amount set aside covers only repairs. How to repair defect not known. R&D costs not established.
    3. Fine from EPA not booked
    4. Additional costs unknown
    5. Reputation damaged - will take years to rebuild.

    Buy VLKAY? Sure, for speculation only. Play the 'dead cat' at best.

    Buy F instead.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Is Not The Next BlackBerry [View article]
    Is GoPro the next Garmin? The valuation multiples are more similar than comparing BBRY to GPRO.

    BBRY's carving out an MDM niche (middle player in enterprise) and handsets are an afterthought. Brand is still viewed as toxic to the consumer, which keeps BBRY stock at a huge discount to future worth.

    GRMN found success in gps watches after its core business started to shrink. Doesn't that put it ahead of GPRO, which doesn't (yet) have a product life after the Hero?

    Disclosure: +Premium subscribers requested coverage on AMBA, GPRO and GRMN is on the research list as a value stock.
    Sep 22, 2015. 08:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint: A Speculative Buy On The Dip [View article]
    Translation for all my articles:
    "Speculative buy" = amateur, gambler call - depends on insider activity, speculation.

    "Buy" = investment call - this call based on company's value (intrinsic value) deeply discounted to stock price.

    A few followers (responding to my survey - see instablog or stock talk) requested coverage on stocks like Sprint.
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint: A Speculative Buy On The Dip [View article]
    This is an open forum and your comment is valued. Do you have a link? If so, I'll submit a revision.
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sprint: A Speculative Buy On The Dip [View article]
    SoftBank's stock is also getting pulled down by BABA. Lockup ends, but the big holders, including SoftBank, probably won't sell. Anyway that's an indirect attack on SoftBank's stock and clinging hope that it won't support Sprint. That's untrue.
    Sep 21, 2015. 10:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Apple steps up electric car efforts, aims for 2019 shipping date [View news story]
    I call BS. Apple building cars is a move away from its core competency. Likely a short seller with big stakes betting against Tesla feeding this story to WSJ.

    Buy Apple.
    Sell Tesla.
    Sell Google.
    Sep 21, 2015. 03:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ambarella drops 4.7% after Barron's targets GoPro [View news story]
    Barron's should rename themselves "ClickBarron's" because all they do is write with a polarized investing thesis, to get clicks, without regard to actual fundamentals.

    Ignore them.

    Covered AMBA (as long). Followers have been asking me about GPRO, MBLY, AMBA.
    The momo play on the back of the Fed not cutting rates will make Barron's look like fools.
    Sep 21, 2015. 01:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • M&A Daily: Atmel Sold, What Next For Semi Mergers? [View article]
    IMOS is a long time favorite of mine, and probably one of the few tech stocks whose intrinsic value is still deeply discounted from its stock price.

    There are so few stocks at a discount!

    In Canada, Absolute software (TSE: ABT.TO) is a potential takeover candidate, though it's likely fairly valued / a small discount than being bought out.

    WILN, SWIR, RKNEF are other tech stocks US investors looking into Canada may consider, but these are highly speculative. Americans should short the Canadian dollar ahead of elections, but cover before this event.
    Sep 21, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Faces Substantial Headwinds [View instapost]
    MSFT has trouble getting users to run latest browser on its tablet or desktop Win 10.

    Safari is the default browser on Apple, and Apple users spend.

    This move by apple is a direct shot against the ad-tracker Google.
    Sep 21, 2015. 08:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Much More Optimistic On Intel [View article]
    It is still only a guess if chip sales will rebound in the short term. The sector is still encountering decelerating sales. This started two quarters ago and there is no usual seasonality from the past to support Intel:

    1. Windows 10 works on 8-10 y/o PCs
    2. Win 10 is free
    3. 2 in 1 and ultrabooks must beat iPads and Surface

    Surface demand is picking up. I see them more often now than I see iPads.

    New smartphones are out. This sucks up money from the consumer but at some point, the consumer must update their PC if they want more control over their data.

    Net play here? Plenty of time to buy Intel on the dips. It might touch 26 again.
    WAIT until after October 1. Micron reports. Micron's DDR, PC NAND sales should give some indication on the health of the computing market, especially in servers.

    Disclosure: INTC and MSFT are on the DIY list of investing ideas (+Premium).
    Sep 20, 2015. 10:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Seeking Alpha, From One Contributor's Perspective (Part II) [View article]
    I'm one of the authors around the paywall. You are right: the better research is behind a wall but is connected to that author. Chris has a balanced mix of subscription content and regular posts.
    To better understand the reader demand (paying vs free) I sent out a survey to my followers (2 posts down on instablog: Though there will be that sentiment of self promotion for the "Marketplace" there are also willing readers who want the value-add.

    To address other comments here, in my opinion (not that of SA):

    1. Meh on the mobile app. Go to the website instead! Also, notifications may be easily turned off. Yes. It's buggy too.

    2. US coverage on SA is what it is, but that's what is in demand. SA explored coverage of CANADA, but after some research, found an enormous level of regulations and rules it had to get past. Readers asked ME if I focus on Canada for the subscription. Yes, partly. I pick the best in this country.

    3. Blocking: Lots of readers want this. I believe in free speech. Further, block spammers. Simply code comment checking so if the message content is exact or 90% similar to past posts in a row, auto-block the user or delete comment.

    4. Help new writers. Follow them. Tell them they wrote a good piece if they did. They have the biggest challenges in starting off. They may be insightful despite just starting off.

    5. Readers require a level head when reading bearish / sell articles. Stay with facts, not emotion. Not everything is a buy! It still takes a toll on us writers when writing sell calls. Lately my sell calls have been mostly calls more wrong.

    6. Let marketplace authors gently ad and self-promote. It's still about making right or wrong calls. The writers to be wary of are those who have external sites who seemingly have 300% returns. All the time. Look for honest writers who own up to wrong calls.
    Sep 19, 2015. 10:41 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment