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Chris Lau  

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  • Yingli Solar Drops A Bombshell [View article]
    I like CSIQ and TSL. FSLR too. YGE may be BK soon.

    After researching MU and its drop, I came across AMAT. AMAT singled out solar as a weak spot, so don't be surprised that Yingli has issues.
    AMAT: "we will continue to actively manage our product portfolio to ensure we are deploying our investments and resources towards our most promising growth opportunities. In the past two weeks, based on our view of future market potential, we have taken actions to further lower the breakeven level of our solar business."

    Second, look at KNDI and what happens when its customers are not paying the bills.
    May 18, 2015. 07:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy to launch 16M-unit offering [View news story]
    This puts a wrinkle on the Linn rebound. Oil prices might head lower in the next month or two (then rebounding by end of year), so better to boost the cash levels than to hurt when other struggling firms are raising cash.
    May 18, 2015. 05:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look For Value In 3D Systems And Stratasys After The Sell-Offs [View article]
    Darren:
    Will need to consider your comments on my assigning a generous multiple 5 years out. This was done because for the last few years, the market was all too happy (and wrong) pricing DDD at 100x.

    Today, with the stock up ~7%, the bottom pattern for DD is forming (regardless of valuation).

    At this time, DDD, SSYS are not "buy" calls for premium subscribers nor a stock I'm ready to buy. It's strictly on the watch as the sector undergoes consolidation.
    May 18, 2015. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: It's Time [View article]
    Use this fundamental charting tool (NOT technical charting) and check out BBRY's EBIT Margin. For Fun, I plugged MOBL's numbers too:
    http://bit.ly/1Abi7sh
    May 18, 2015. 04:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cash Is King [View article]
    Funny story, Harm, on the boredom of holding cash. My US Cash appreciated 20-25% in just a few months. Easiest money I ever made (on paper).

    The problem with leverage is its multiplier effect: your mistakes are amplified by orders of magnitude, so if the market turns on you, which it always will one way or another, you're margin called and then the benefit of holding and waiting is erased.

    Aside from HFTs boosting volume, the trading activity isn't the same 2009 - 2015 compared to pre 2008. Have a hunch options and leveraged trading is higher. Borrowing to trade is practically "free" with the low interest rates.
    May 18, 2015. 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: It's Time [View article]
    BBRY was a buy and sell for four years - it was range-bound, so unlike shorts who made a killing at a peak, or those who made a good return at the bottom, am close to break-even (data is here: http://bit.ly/1P2c2SS) .

    The playbook was always about staying *in* the game, long or short. Same play for NOK, ALU. If you look at other firms that turnaround, the stock is range bound for years, then it breaks out. BBRY's inflection point requires revenue and profit growth in support sales.
    May 18, 2015. 03:55 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: It's Time [View article]
    The days of negative short pumping are ending. There are only two users who account for 98% of all the negativity. The 8M share buy tested the waters, suggesting $11 as the new "bottom" for BBRY ($10's more reasonable based on the 1B conversion price).

    Watch and wait. Spend the time checking enterprise uptake of BES12 support. Patience is a virtue and is a requirement for value investors. Chances are good the firm will succeed. TMUS is on. T, S are supporting BBRY on the small business / consumer space.
    May 18, 2015. 12:11 PM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Cash Is King [View article]
    Rule #1: Never leverage. Sure that those borrowing now are outperforming the market but the market has never fallen significantly for six consecutive years.

    Author: Good article. My post on Apr 7 ("There Is No Shame Holding Cash" via http://bit.ly/1P2c2SS) echos the same ideas. Holding excessive cash does mean being under-exposed, but the costs of doing so are low. Inflation rates are very low, so the depreciation on cash over time is also less than it was in the 1980's/1990's.

    With extra cash available, it's now possible to deploy it in the energy sector, UDW, various European banks, various value tech stocks.
    May 18, 2015. 12:04 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The 'Saga' Continue For King? [View article]
    The market misunderstood $KING so much that I added it to model portfolio and alerted contacts this am (http://bit.ly/1P2c2SS).

    King has very strong, candy sticky products, and a big user base to up-sell.
    MSFT buying out KING makes sense, but the Windows 10-Crush install is a better partnership. Surface tablet sales are growing well.
    May 18, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking Seth Klarman's Baupost Group Holdings - Q1 2015 Update [View article]
    Baupost brilliantly bought and sold MU when it was in the mid 30's. The downward drop is puzzling to most, but nearly every semi-tech I researched (subscription post, article to follow) confirmed a qtrly slow down for DRAM.

    Most rumors on MU losing market share on DRAM are wrong. It went up for all players.
    May 18, 2015. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Look For Value In 3D Systems And Stratasys After The Sell-Offs [View article]
    Darren - here are LR (levered Returns)s definitions:
    1. EBITDA Exit: Exit multiple method. this approach uses the underlying assumption that a market multiple basis is a fair approach to value a business.

    2. GROWTH EXIT: Perpetuity Growth Model. This method assumes that growth of the company will continue at a stable growth rate into perpetuity.

    More details here: http://bit.ly/1PNHqSV
    May 16, 2015. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Activision Blizzard: Setting Up For A Tumble [View article]
    Owned EA, ATVI back in 2012 (http://bit.ly/uaDXCc) or so, before the great run-up. ATVI's rally is tiring: the higher growth is now in mobile. Look at Nintendo and the response when the firm said it would make a handful of games.

    ATVI may generate awesome revenue in the billions until it can't. Any slight miss on releases will hurt, given the massive dev spend for these title releases.
    May 16, 2015. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OmniVision Technologies A Top Opportunity In The Merger Arbitrage Universe [View article]
    Good income making strategies using options. Thanks. Other considerations:
    1. IMOS, Taiwan-based, is consolidating its complex hierarchical structure, too
    2. AMAT, Tokyo Electron cancel merger plans
    3. I called OVTI back when it was 12 - 14 (or so), moved coverage to HIMX.
    4. Lots of insight from HIMX illustrating the weak dynamics in CMOS sensors in 1H, expectations for 2H. Consider looking at HIMX and gain more insight on pure-play (ovti) vs. more complex chip solutions.
    May 16, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry briefly spikes on unconfirmed Microsoft rumor [View news story]
    Come on, pumper, you were not even trying AVP jumped from $6.50 to $8.
    My premium offering is committed to covering BBRY, but this bump to $11 isn't close to alert ( http://bit.ly/1P2c2SS ) worthy.

    BBRY recovery schedule contingent on this:
    1. BES 12 server support licensing (100M - 1B)
    1b. add-on sales (50-100M)
    2. Device sales at TMUS, S, T, etc. (100-300M)*
    3. Carrier ad initiative for Passport - price drop by 10% below cost of an Android
    4. Release of Passport 2
    5. Release of Slider
    6. IoT revenue growth: triple digit
    7. BBM Revenue 100M*

    * selling BBM vanity for ~$5/mo will fail. Z10 replacement won't do well either. Classic and Passport will do better.

    IoT is gaining momentum, particularly in automotive. Device sales could improve, especially in EMEA. There was considerable slowing in sales of Androids in China in 1H. Thus the game is always open, and Android is not as solid a play as everyone thinks.

    Good luck to all. Hold and stay strong. Sell your shares and jumps like this, then buy them back on the dip.
    May 15, 2015. 07:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Klarman boosts stakes in AIG and Ocwen Financial [View news story]
    Beware following some of his newest trades. When traders find out, the stock more than doubles.

    Notable increases include THRX, TBPH, KERX by 20%, 4.8%, and 22%, respectively. this boosts confidence in the companies I both hold and write about.
    May 15, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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